NorthWestern Corporation (NWE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NorthWestern Corporation stock $43.20, price $82.73, that is 47.8% below the price, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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NorthWestern Corporation
NWE · USOur calculation puts a fair price 48% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $40.57 – $82.73 · fair‑value band $38.23 – $56.15 · the $82.73 price screens above the $43.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Company profile
NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc., doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers.
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It generates, purchases, transmits, and distributes electricity; and produces, purchases, stores, transmits, and distributes natural gas, as well as owns municipal franchises to provide natural gas service in the communities.
The company operates 6,596 miles of electric transmission and 18,946 miles of electric distribution lines with approximately 397 transmission and distribution substations; and 2,133 miles of natural gas transmission and 5,939 miles of natural gas distribution lines with approximately 134 city gate stations in Montana.
It also operates 1,344 miles of electric transmission and 2,386 miles of electric distribution lines in South Dakota with approximately 123 transmission and distribution substations; and 55 miles of natural gas transmission, 1,853 miles of natural gas distribution lines in South Dakota, and 836 miles of natural gas distribution lines Nebraska.
The company provides electricity and/or natural gas to approximately 850,300 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1923 and is based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
Stock analysis
NorthWestern Corporation (NWE) currently trades at $82.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $43.20, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $49.99 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $82.73 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $22.30, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $38.23 (bear) to $56.15 (bull), the price of $82.73 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
NorthWestern Corporation reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was $181M in FY2025, compounding −0.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.1B Mid · P/E ratio 31.0 · P/S ratio 2.95 · EPS (TTM) $2.67 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 9.5% · Return on equity 5.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −48%, NWE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 16 models by family
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 19 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
NWE screens overvalued: fair value 48% below the price. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Recent news
- NorthWestern Energy Group Inc (NWE) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Merger Nears Finish ...
- NorthWestern declares $0.67 dividend
- NorthWestern Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results
- Analysts Estimate NorthWestern (NWE) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for
Compare NorthWestern Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 156 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Utilities sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- EV/EBITDA by industry
- Dividend yield by industry
- Stock screener with 62 metrics
- Undervalued stocks: Utilities
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG&E Corporation PCG | $12.97 | $17.29 | +33% | vs NWE |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $126.53 | $100.03 | −21% | vs NWE |
| Exelon Corporation EXC | $45.62 | $36.01 | −21% | vs NWE |
| Xcel Energy Inc XEL | $79.67 | $53.45 | −33% | vs NWE |
| The Southern Company SO | $92.34 | $56.88 | −38% | vs NWE |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $127.78 | $75.79 | −41% | vs NWE |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $68.60 | $37.88 | −45% | vs NWE |
| Consolidated Edison, Inc ED | $118.56 | $47.76 | −60% | vs NWE |
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $86.95 | $29.83 | −66% | vs NWE |
| Entergy Corporation ETR | $110.55 | $37.37 | −66% | vs NWE |
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Key figures of NorthWestern Corporation
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