NorthWestern Energy Group (NWE) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $4.5B
NorthWestern Energy Group
NWE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +2.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 40% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($56.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $40.96 – $73.42 · fair‑value band $37.54 – $56.16 · the $72.09 price screens above the $43.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
NorthWestern Energy Group (NWE) currently trades at $72.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $43.20, implying the stock looks roughly 40.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, NorthWestern Energy Group generated revenue of $1.6B at a net margin of 10.2%. Revenue grew 6.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. Net debt stands at $3.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $37.54 (bear case) to $56.16 (bull case); at $72.09, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -40%, NWE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($43.20) versus Earnings-Based ($25.47). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc., doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers.
Full company description
NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc., doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. It generates, purchases, transmits, and distributes electricity; and produces, purchases, stores, transmits, and distributes natural gas, as well as owns municipal franchises to provide natural gas service in the communities. The company operates 6,596 miles of electric transmission and 18,946 miles of electric distribution lines with approximately 397 transmission and distribution substations; and 2,133 miles of natural gas transmission and 5,939 miles of natural gas distribution lines with approximately 134 city gate stations in Montana. It also operates 1,344 miles of electric transmission and 2,386 miles of electric distribution lines in South Dakota with approximately 123 transmission and distribution substations; and 55 miles of natural gas transmission, 1,853 miles of natural gas distribution lines in South Dakota, and 836 miles of natural gas distribution lines Nebraska. The company provides electricity and/or natural gas to approximately 850,300 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1923 and is based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NorthWestern Energy Group reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was $181M in FY2025, compounding −0.8%/yr from FY2021.
NWE screens 40% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- NorthWestern Energy Group (NWE) Following Reaffirmed Guidance And Q2 Gains Looks About Right
- NorthWestern Energy Group Inc (NWE) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Merger Progress and ...
- NorthWestern Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 154 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $88.80 | $32.94 | -63% |
| The Southern Company SO | $95.61 | $61.06 | -36% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $126.11 | $97.11 | -23% |
| National Grid plc NGG | 61,175 ARS | 44,377 ARS | -27% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $132.50 | $79.33 | -40% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $70.08 | $46.92 | -33% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹341.85 | ₹377.16 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 232.40 PLN | 159.33 PLN | -31% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹283.55 | ₹252.77 | -11% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.91 | ¥7.69 | -14% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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