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NorthWestern Corporation (NWE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of NorthWestern Corporation $43.20, price $68.70, upside -37.1%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Utilities · US · ISIN US6680743050

NC NorthWestern Corporation logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

NorthWestern Corporation

NWE · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $43.20 · Strongly overvalued (−37%)
!Quality 42/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.2% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·3.86% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/14)
!Moderate moat 51/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Weak on past: 23 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$73.42 $40.96 Fair Value $43.20 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $40.96 – $73.42 · fair‑value band $37.54 – $54.59 · the $68.70 price screens above the $43.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc., doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers.

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NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc., doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. It generates, purchases, transmits, and distributes electricity; and produces, purchases, stores, transmits, and distributes natural gas, as well as owns municipal franchises to provide natural gas service in the communities. The company operates 6,596 miles of electric transmission and 18,946 miles of electric distribution lines with approximately 397 transmission and distribution substations; and 2,133 miles of natural gas transmission and 5,939 miles of natural gas distribution lines with approximately 134 city gate stations in Montana. It also operates 1,344 miles of electric transmission and 2,386 miles of electric distribution lines in South Dakota with approximately 123 transmission and distribution substations; and 55 miles of natural gas transmission, 1,853 miles of natural gas distribution lines in South Dakota, and 836 miles of natural gas distribution lines Nebraska. The company provides electricity and/or natural gas to approximately 850,300 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1923 and is based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

Stock analysis

NorthWestern Corporation (NWE) currently trades at $68.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $43.20, implying the stock looks roughly 59.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $43.20 per share, and 1 of the 14 models we run sit above the $68.70 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $25.47, and 13 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $37.54 (bear) to $54.59 (bull), the price of $68.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

NorthWestern Corporation reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was $181M in FY2025, compounding −0.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $4.2B · P/E ratio 25.3 · P/S ratio 2.84 · EPS (TTM) $2.72 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 11.2% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −37%, NWE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $37.54 Fair Value $43.20 Bull $54.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0512 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $37.13 $38.68 $39.38 76
EPV n/a n/a $4.51 68
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a $4.51 68
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $20.02 $74.27 $100.36 64
Lynch FV $17.83 $25.47 $33.11 61
PEG = 1.0 $17.83 $25.47 $33.11 57
EPV n/a n/a $4.51 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $23.04 $45.92 $69.53 67
DDM Multi-Stage $23.04 $39.68 $48.47 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $39.75 $53.00 $66.24 63
P/S Multiple $37.54 $50.05 $62.56 58
P/B Multiple $37.54 $50.05 $62.56 55
EV/EBIT $8.02 $27.88 $47.75 60
EV/EBITDA n/a $2.11 $15.54 62
EV/Revenue n/a $13.89 $33.53 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $23.46 $31.43 $46.92 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $37.13 $38.68 $39.38 76
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a $4.51 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $30.24 $43.20 $56.16 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 46
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 54
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 91
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 51
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 68
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 67
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
0.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs −1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 20%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

NWE screens 59% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 157 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside −38% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 23% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.10× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.49× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.61× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG 2.93× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 9
FUTURE (revenue growth)33 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)23 · sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)45 · sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)77 · sector 69

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NextEra Energy, Inc NEE $79.26 $29.88 −62%
The Southern Company SO $85.15 $58.74 −31%
Duke Energy Corporation DUK $116.31 $74.89 −36%
American Electric Power Company AEP $120.27 $100.09 −17%
Dominion Energy, Inc D $62.43 $37.67 −40%
Entergy Corporation ETR $101.16 $38.37 −62%
Xcel Energy Inc XEL $72.06 $54.92 −24%
Exelon Corporation EXC $41.80 $36.26 −13%
Consolidated Edison, Inc ED $103.84 $47.92 −54%
Public Service Enterprise Group PEG $69.12 $33.43 −52%

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NorthWestern Corporation · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NorthWestern Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NWE

Frequently asked questions

Is NorthWestern Corporation (NWE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $43.20 versus a price of $68.70, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NWE?
Our model-based fair value for NorthWestern Corporation is $43.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $68.70.
What is the quality score of NWE?
NorthWestern Corporation has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $43.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $37.54, optimistic scenario $54.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NorthWestern Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $43.20, about −37% upside versus a price of $68.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $37.54, optimistic scenario $54.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
NorthWestern Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does NorthWestern Corporation pay a dividend?
NorthWestern Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.86% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NorthWestern Corporation it is $43.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $68.70. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NorthWestern Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NWE trades above its calculated fair value: price $68.70, fair value $43.20, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NWE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($68.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($43.20). For NorthWestern Corporation the two are $25.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NorthWestern Corporation worth?
The market values NorthWestern Corporation at about $4.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $68.70; our models calculate a fair value of $43.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NWE?
Our models span a range for NorthWestern Corporation: cautious scenario $37.54, base $43.20, optimistic $54.59 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $68.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NWE?
NorthWestern Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $43.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.9, P/B 1.5, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 12.9.
What is the PEG ratio of NWE?
The PEG ratio of NorthWestern Corporation is 2.93 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
Balance-sheet figures for NorthWestern Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.8%, debt of 1.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NWE from its 52-week high?
NorthWestern Corporation trades at $68.70, about 6% below its 52-week high of $73.42 and 25% above the low of $55.17 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $43.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NorthWestern Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NorthWestern Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $68.70, calculated fair value $43.20 (−37%), Quality Score 42/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NWE calculated?
We run NorthWestern Corporation through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $43.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NorthWestern Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $68.70. Our model-based fair value is $43.20, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NorthWestern Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($54.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of NorthWestern Corporation (NWE) come from?
Earnings per share at NorthWestern Corporation grew +0.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.9 %, EBIT margin +1.2 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of NorthWestern Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
The market capitalisation of NorthWestern Corporation is $4.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NorthWestern Corporation is 2.84 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
Earnings per share at NorthWestern Corporation are $2.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
The dividend yield of NorthWestern Corporation is 3.9% (payout 97.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
The net margin of NorthWestern Corporation is 11.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NorthWestern Corporation is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NorthWestern Corporation is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
The operating margin of NorthWestern Corporation is 23.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
Revenue at NorthWestern Corporation is growing +6.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)?
Earnings per share at NorthWestern Corporation are growing −17.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does NorthWestern Corporation (NWE) generate?
The free cash flow of NorthWestern Corporation is −$130M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does NorthWestern Corporation (NWE) carry?
The net debt of NorthWestern Corporation is $3.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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