Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Obayashi Corporation stock $25.83, price $18.51, upside +39.5%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.19 – $28.19 · fair‑value band $17.49 – $35.69 · the $18.51 price screens below the $25.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Obayashi Corporation engages in the construction business in Japan, North America, Asia and internationally.
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The company constructs buildings, including offices, condominiums, commercial facilities, factories, hospitals, and schools; civil engineering projects, such as tunnels, bridges, dams, river works, urban civil engineering structures, railroads, and expressways; and engineering services for semiconductor and pharmaceutical production facilities, renewable energy facility construction, ICT for buildings, and soil and water pollution countermeasures.
It is also involved in the development and leasing of real estate properties in various locations, primarily in urban areas; solar, biomass, geothermal, and wind power generation business; and PPP and agriculture business. The company was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) currently trades at $18.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.83, implying the stock looks roughly 28% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $29.86 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the $18.51 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.40, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $17.49 (bear) to $35.69 (bull), the price of $18.51 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Obayashi Corporation reported revenue of ¥2.6T in FY2026 versus ¥1.9T in FY2022, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥175B in FY2026, compounding +45.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $12.9B Large · P/E ratio 11.4 · P/S ratio 0.76 · EPS (TTM) $1.63 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 16.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at 40%, OBYCF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$17.49Fair Value $25.83Bull$35.69
Price $18.51 · Upside +39.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6535 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.9% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+35.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+32.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.8% vs 11.0%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 8%
2026 sits 132% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.8% a year for the price and +3.0% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Obayashi demonstrates strong execution in overseas construction projects through consistent international awards, yet its core business remains vulnerable to fluctuations in Japan's domestic economy and construction cycles.
Main risk: Exposure to Japan's slower economy and construction cycles threatens demand for its core engineering services and revenue stability.
Obayashi keeps earning international construction awards, including the latest for widening a key Cambodian road with strong local hiring and safety records. This highlights execution strength in overseas projects. At the same time the core engineering business stays exposed to Japan's slower economy and construction cycles. Will these global wins build a more stable revenue base or stay secondary to home market swings?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 791 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+39.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)5.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.61× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.76× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.0× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Obayashi Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OBYCF
Frequently asked questions
Is Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.83 versus a price of $18.51, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OBYCF?
Our model-based fair value for Obayashi Corporation is $25.83 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.51.
What is the quality score of OBYCF?
Obayashi Corporation has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.83 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.49, optimistic scenario $35.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Obayashi Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.83, about +40% upside versus a price of $18.51 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $17.49, optimistic scenario $35.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
Obayashi Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.7T (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Obayashi Corporation pay a dividend?
Obayashi Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 3.00% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Obayashi Corporation pays a dividend of $0.556 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.0%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2008. The payout ratio is 34.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.12 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Obayashi Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +0.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OBYCF use?
Our models discount Obayashi Corporation at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Obayashi Corporation that is +0.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Obayashi Corporation grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +0.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Obayashi Corporation (+0.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.27 %: that much free cash flow Obayashi Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Obayashi Corporation it is $25.83 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $18.51. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Obayashi Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, OBYCF trades below its calculated fair value: price $18.51, fair value $25.83, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OBYCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.83). For Obayashi Corporation the two are $7.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Obayashi Corporation worth?
The market values Obayashi Corporation at about $12.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $18.51; our models calculate a fair value of $25.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OBYCF?
Our models span a range for Obayashi Corporation: cautious scenario $17.49, base $25.83, optimistic $35.69 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $18.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OBYCF?
Obayashi Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $25.83 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Obayashi Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 16.2%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OBYCF from its 52-week high?
Obayashi Corporation trades at $18.51, about 34% below its 52-week high of $28.19 and 11% above the low of $16.72 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Obayashi Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Obayashi Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $18.51, calculated fair value $25.83 (+40%), Quality Score 59/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OBYCF calculated?
We run Obayashi Corporation through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $25.83 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Obayashi Corporation currently trades 28% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $18.51. Our model-based fair value is $25.83, about +40% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Obayashi Corporation right now?
Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($17.49 to $35.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) come from?
Earnings per share at Obayashi Corporation grew +8.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.9 %, EBIT margin +0.5 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Obayashi Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The market capitalisation of Obayashi Corporation is $12.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Obayashi Corporation is 0.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
Earnings per share at Obayashi Corporation are $1.63 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The dividend yield of Obayashi Corporation is 3.0% (payout 34.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The net margin of Obayashi Corporation is 6.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Obayashi Corporation is 16.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Obayashi Corporation is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The operating margin of Obayashi Corporation is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
Revenue at Obayashi Corporation is growing +19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
Earnings per share at Obayashi Corporation are growing +122% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) hold?
Obayashi Corporation holds more cash than debt, ¥74.9B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026