Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Obayashi Corporation $25.74, price $19.70, upside +30.7%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.19 – $28.19 · fair‑value band $17.44 – $35.31 · the $19.70 price screens below the $25.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Obayashi Corporation engages in the construction business in Japan, North America, Asia and internationally.
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Obayashi Corporation engages in the construction business in Japan, North America, Asia and internationally. The company constructs buildings, including offices, condominiums, commercial facilities, factories, hospitals, and schools; civil engineering projects, such as tunnels, bridges, dams, river works, urban civil engineering structures, railroads, and expressways; and engineering services for semiconductor and pharmaceutical production facilities, renewable energy facility construction, ICT for buildings, and soil and water pollution countermeasures. It is also involved in the development and leasing of real estate properties in various locations, primarily in urban areas; solar, biomass, geothermal, and wind power generation business; and PPP and agriculture business. The company was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) currently trades at $19.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.74, implying the stock looks roughly 23.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $29.14 per share, and 17 of the 23 models we run sit above the $19.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.29, and 6 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $17.44 (bear) to $35.31 (bull), the price of $19.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Obayashi Corporation reported revenue of ¥2.6T in FY2026 versus ¥1.9T in FY2022, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥175B in FY2026, compounding +45.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $13.7B · P/E ratio 12.7 · P/S ratio 0.85 · EPS (TTM) $1.55 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 31%, OBYCF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $17.44Fair Value $25.74Bull $35.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.9% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+35.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+32.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs 11%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 8%
2026 sits 132% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.6% a year for the price and +2.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 836 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+31% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Obayashi Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OBYCF
Frequently asked questions
Is Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.74 versus a price of $19.70, about +31% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OBYCF?
Our model-based fair value for Obayashi Corporation is $25.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.70.
What is the quality score of OBYCF?
Obayashi Corporation has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.44, optimistic scenario $35.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Obayashi Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.74, about +31% upside versus a price of $19.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $17.44, optimistic scenario $35.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
Obayashi Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.6T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Obayashi Corporation pay a dividend?
Obayashi Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Obayashi Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +1.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OBYCF use?
Our models discount Obayashi Corporation at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Obayashi Corporation that is +1.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Obayashi Corporation grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies +1.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Obayashi Corporation (+1.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.89 %: that much free cash flow Obayashi Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Obayashi Corporation it is $25.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $19.70. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Obayashi Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OBYCF trades below its calculated fair value: price $19.70, fair value $25.74, a gap of about +31% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OBYCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.74). For Obayashi Corporation the two are $6.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Obayashi Corporation worth?
The market values Obayashi Corporation at about $13.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $19.70; our models calculate a fair value of $25.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OBYCF?
Our models span a range for Obayashi Corporation: cautious scenario $17.44, base $25.74, optimistic $35.31 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $19.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OBYCF?
Obayashi Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $25.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 8.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Obayashi Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.1%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OBYCF from its 52-week high?
Obayashi Corporation trades at $19.70, about 30% below its 52-week high of $28.19 and 26% above the low of $15.58 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Obayashi Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Obayashi Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $19.70, calculated fair value $25.74 (+31%), Quality Score 59/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OBYCF calculated?
We run Obayashi Corporation through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $25.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Obayashi Corporation currently trades 31 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $19.70. Our model-based fair value is $25.74, about +31% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Obayashi Corporation right now?
Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($17.44 to $35.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) come from?
Earnings per share at Obayashi Corporation grew +8.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.9 %, EBIT margin +0.5 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Obayashi Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The market capitalisation of Obayashi Corporation is $13.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Obayashi Corporation is 0.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
Earnings per share at Obayashi Corporation are $1.55 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The dividend yield of Obayashi Corporation is 2.9% (payout 36.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The net margin of Obayashi Corporation is 6.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Obayashi Corporation is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Obayashi Corporation is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
The operating margin of Obayashi Corporation is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
Revenue at Obayashi Corporation is growing −4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF)?
Earnings per share at Obayashi Corporation are growing +110% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Obayashi Corporation (OBYCF) hold?
Obayashi Corporation holds more cash than debt, ¥74.9B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026