Old National Bancorp (ONB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Old National Bancorp stock $19.41, price $25.05, that is 22.5% below the price, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.85 – $27.14 · fair‑value band $16.20 – $21.69 · the $25.05 price screens above the $19.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Old National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides consumer and commercial banking services in the United States.
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It accepts deposit accounts, such as noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing checking and negotiable order of withdrawal, savings and money market, and time deposits.
The company also offers loans, including home equity lines of credit, residential real estate loans, and consumer loans, as well as loans to commercial clients comprising commercial loans, commercial real estate loans, agricultural loans, letters of credit, and lease financing.
In addition, it offers debit and automated teller machine cards, telephone access and online banking, and other electronic and mobile banking services.
Further, the company offers private banking, wealth management, trust, investment advisory, brokerage, and foreign currency services; treasury management, merchant, and capital markets services for businesses; and community development lending and equity investment solutions.
Old National Bancorp was founded in 1834 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.
Stock analysis
Old National Bancorp (ONB) currently trades at $25.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.41, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $20.44 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $25.05 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $9.02, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $16.20 (bear) to $21.69 (bull), the price of $25.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Old National Bancorp reported revenue of $3.7B in FY2025 versus $853M in FY2021, a compound +44.4%/yr. Reported net income was $669M in FY2025, compounding +24.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.7B Mid · P/E ratio 11.1 · P/S ratio 3.63 · EPS (TTM) $2.26 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 33.3% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −23%, ONB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$16.20Fair Value $19.41Bull$21.69
Price $25.05 · Downside -22.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.44 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.3M and none bought.
SaleJohn Moran VCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER19,261 shares at $25.57$492,504Nov 3, 2026
SaleChady M. AlahmarCEO, WEALTH MANAGEMENT11,771 shares at $26.41$310,872Jul 30, 2026
SaleNicholas J ChulosChief Legal Officer & Corp Sec2× since Feb 3, 2026: 50,000 shares, avg. $25.69$1.3MJul 28, 2026
SaleOtto Bremer Trust10% owner1,926,782 shares at $25.95$50.0MFeb 26, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.7% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.5% vs 5.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 24%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from its granular low-cost deposit franchise and expanding commercial loan pipeline, yet its main weak point remains limited durable advantages with structurally pressured returns.
Main risk: Payment stablecoins enabled by the GENIUS Act and fintech offerings could draw customers away from traditional low-cost deposits at regional banks such as Old National, raising funding costs or reducing the deposit base.
Bull case: Old National could retain its low-cost deposit franchise and commercial pipeline by adopting AI for efficiency and personalized services while navigating stablecoin competition through differentiated relationship banking.
Bear case: If stablecoins and fintech draw significant deposits or regulators impose stricter capital and compliance demands, Old National's funding costs could rise sharply and its ability to fund higher-spread loans might be constrained over time.
Old National has assembled a record commercial loan pipeline of over five billion dollars through focused client acquisition and sales execution. This supports a shift into higher-spread middle-market lending while its granular low-cost deposit franchise helps contain funding costs. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the pipeline drive meaningful net interest margin gains or will competitive pressures on deposits and credit quality limit the upside?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−22.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.6% · Below median
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)33.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)52.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)28.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.14× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)3.63× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.2× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Old National Bancorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ONB
Frequently asked questions
Is Old National Bancorp (ONB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.41 versus a price of $25.05, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ONB?
Our model-based fair value for Old National Bancorp is $19.41 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.05.
What is the quality score of ONB?
Old National Bancorp has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.41 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.20, optimistic scenario $21.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Old National Bancorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.41, about 23% lower versus a price of $25.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $16.20, optimistic scenario $21.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
Old National Bancorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Old National Bancorp pay a dividend?
Old National Bancorp currently shows a dividend yield of 2.28% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Old National Bancorp it is $19.41 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $25.05. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Old National Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, ONB trades above its calculated fair value: price $25.05, fair value $19.41, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ONB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.41). For Old National Bancorp the two are $5.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Old National Bancorp worth?
The market values Old National Bancorp at about $9.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $25.05; our models calculate a fair value of $19.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ONB?
Our models span a range for Old National Bancorp: cautious scenario $16.20, base $19.41, optimistic $21.69 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $25.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ONB?
Old National Bancorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.1 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.41 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 12.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.1, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 15.2.
What is the PEG ratio of ONB?
The PEG ratio of Old National Bancorp is 1.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Old National Bancorp (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ONB from its 52-week high?
Old National Bancorp trades at $25.05, about 8% below its 52-week high of $27.14 and 31% above the low of $19.19 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Old National Bancorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Old National Bancorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $25.05, calculated fair value $19.41 (−23%), Quality Score 45/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ONB calculated?
We run Old National Bancorp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Old National Bancorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $25.05. Our model-based fair value is $19.41, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Old National Bancorp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (45/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Old National Bancorp (ONB) come from?
Earnings per share at Old National Bancorp grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin −0.9 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Old National Bancorp
How large is the market capitalisation of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The market capitalisation of Old National Bancorp is $9.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Old National Bancorp is 3.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
Earnings per share at Old National Bancorp are $2.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The dividend yield of Old National Bancorp is 2.3% (payout 25.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The net margin of Old National Bancorp is 33.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Old National Bancorp is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Old National Bancorp is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The operating margin of Old National Bancorp is 52.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
Revenue at Old National Bancorp is growing +28.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
Earnings per share at Old National Bancorp are growing +92.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Old National Bancorp (ONB) generate?
The free cash flow of Old National Bancorp is $637M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Old National Bancorp (ONB) carry?
The net debt of Old National Bancorp is $5.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026