Old National Bancorp (ONB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Old National Bancorp is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.91 – $27.29 · fair‑value band $13.35 – $22.25 · the $25.25 price screens above the $17.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
Old National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides consumer and commercial banking services in the United States. It accepts deposit accounts, such as noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing checking and negotiable order of withdrawal, savings and money market, and time deposits.
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Old National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides consumer and commercial banking services in the United States. It accepts deposit accounts, such as noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing checking and negotiable order of withdrawal, savings and money market, and time deposits. The company also offers loans, including home equity lines of credit, residential real estate loans, and consumer loans, as well as loans to commercial clients comprising commercial loans, commercial real estate loans, agricultural loans, letters of credit, and lease financing. In addition, it offers debit and automated teller machine cards, telephone access and online banking, and other electronic and mobile banking services. Further, the company offers private banking, wealth management, trust, investment advisory, brokerage, and foreign currency services; treasury management, merchant, and capital markets services for businesses; and community development lending and equity investment solutions. Old National Bancorp was founded in 1834 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.
Stock analysis
Old National Bancorp (ONB) currently trades at $25.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.81, implying the stock looks roughly 41.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $22.52 per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the $25.25 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.73, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.35 (bear) to $22.25 (bull), the price of $25.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Old National Bancorp reported revenue of $3.7B in FY2025 versus $853M in FY2021, a compound +44.4%/yr. Reported net income was $669M in FY2025, compounding +24.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.8B · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 2.35 · EPS (TTM) $1.94 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 18.0% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −29%, ONB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.35Fair Value $17.81Bull $22.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9983 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.7%
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs 6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 24%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−32% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)30% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)51% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth46% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.0× · Pricier than median
P/B1.19× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.04× · Pricier than median
P/FCF15.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA15.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.59× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)40· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)58· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)45· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Old National Bancorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ONB
Frequently asked questions
Is Old National Bancorp (ONB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.81 versus a price of $25.25, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ONB?
Our model-based fair value for Old National Bancorp is $17.81 (as of Sep 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.25.
What is the quality score of ONB?
Old National Bancorp has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.81 (as of Sep 19, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.35, optimistic scenario $22.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Old National Bancorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.81, about −29% upside versus a price of $25.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.35, optimistic scenario $22.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
Old National Bancorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 19, 2026).
Does Old National Bancorp pay a dividend?
Old National Bancorp currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 19, 2026).
What growth is priced into Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Old National Bancorp would have to grow free cash flow by +11.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +32.7 % per year. As of Sep 19, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ONB use?
Our models discount Old National Bancorp at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Old National Bancorp that is +11.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Old National Bancorp (ONB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Old National Bancorp grew +32.7 % a year. The price currently implies +11.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Old National Bancorp (ONB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Old National Bancorp (+11.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.48 %: that much free cash flow Old National Bancorp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Old National Bancorp it is $17.81 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026), against a price of $25.25. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Old National Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 19, 2026, ONB trades above its calculated fair value: price $25.25, fair value $17.81, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ONB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.81). For Old National Bancorp the two are $7.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Old National Bancorp worth?
The market values Old National Bancorp at about $9.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 19, 2026). Per share that is $25.25; our models calculate a fair value of $17.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ONB?
Our models span a range for Old National Bancorp: cautious scenario $13.35, base $17.81, optimistic $22.25 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026, price $25.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ONB?
Old National Bancorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Sep 19, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.2, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 15.7.
What is the PEG ratio of ONB?
The PEG ratio of Old National Bancorp is 1.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 19, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Old National Bancorp (as of Sep 19, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ONB from its 52-week high?
Old National Bancorp trades at $25.25, about 2% below its 52-week high of $25.69 and 33% above the low of $18.92 (as of Sep 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Old National Bancorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Old National Bancorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 19, 2026: price $25.25, calculated fair value $17.81 (−29%), Quality Score 39/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ONB calculated?
We run Old National Bancorp through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Old National Bancorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $25.25. Our model-based fair value is $17.81, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Old National Bancorp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Old National Bancorp (ONB) come from?
Earnings per share at Old National Bancorp grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin −0.9 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Old National Bancorp
How large is the market capitalisation of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The market capitalisation of Old National Bancorp is $9.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Old National Bancorp is 2.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
Earnings per share at Old National Bancorp are $1.94 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The dividend yield of Old National Bancorp is 2.2% (payout 29.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The net margin of Old National Bancorp is 18.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Old National Bancorp is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Old National Bancorp is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
The operating margin of Old National Bancorp is 51.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
Revenue at Old National Bancorp is growing +46.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
Earnings per share at Old National Bancorp are growing +34.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Old National Bancorp (ONB) carry?
The net debt of Old National Bancorp is $5.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 19, 2026