Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pattern Group Inc. Series A stock $4.87, price $18.27, that is 73.3% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
14‑month range $9.59 – $29.40 · fair‑value band $3.41 – $6.32 · the $18.27 price screens above the $4.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Pattern Group Inc. operates as an e-commerce accelerator that combines proprietary technology and on-demand expertise to support consumer brands operating across e-commerce marketplaces in the United States and internationally.
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The company acquires inventory from brand partners to sell to consumers in various industries, including health and wellness; beauty and personal care; home and lifestyle; pet; sports and outdoors; and consumer electronics.
The company was formerly known as Covalent Group, Inc. and changed its name to Pattern Group Inc. in November 2024. Pattern Group Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Lehi, Utah.
Stock analysis
Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN) currently trades at $18.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.87, 73% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $11.72 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $18.27 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.75, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.41 (bear) to $6.32 (bull), the price of $18.27 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $991M in FY2022, a compound +36.2%/yr. Reported net income was $16.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.3B Mid · P/E ratio 16.8 · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) $1.09 · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 19.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9% (3-year average) · Operating margin 4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 91% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at −73%, PTRN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.41Fair Value $4.87Bull$6.32
Price $18.27 · Downside -73.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9347 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $163,408 and none bought.
SaleKLC Fund I GP LP10% owner9,200,000 shares at $18.15$167.0MJun 18, 2026
SaleAnn MatherDirector2× since May 15, 2026: 9,056 shares, avg. $18.04$163,408Jun 2, 2026
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.2%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−27.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 1%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+24.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.0% a year for the price and +21.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (58 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Pattern gains from tight incentive alignment and strong net revenue retention via its inventory resale model, yet low margins and heavy reliance on one marketplace limit evidence of a lasting moat.
Main risk: Heavy dependence on a single marketplace for the bulk of sales leaves the business exposed to sudden policy or fee changes on that platform, directly affecting revenue.
Pattern buys inventory from its brand partners and resells it across marketplaces, aligning incentives tightly while moving physical goods. That setup has supported strong net revenue retention and faster growth outside Amazon lately. Yet the platform still depends heavily on one marketplace for the bulk of sales. Will the logistics moat and diversification offset concentration risks more than they expose the business to new competitors?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Above median
Fair Value upside−73.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.6% · Above median
Return on assets1.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)4.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)38.5% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PTRN
Frequently asked questions
Is Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.87 versus a price of $18.27, about 73% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PTRN?
Our model-based fair value for Pattern Group Inc. Series A is $4.87 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.27.
What is the quality score of PTRN?
Pattern Group Inc. Series A has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.87 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.41, optimistic scenario $6.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.87, about 73% lower versus a price of $18.27 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.41, optimistic scenario $6.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
Pattern Group Inc. Series A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pattern Group Inc. Series A would have to grow free cash flow by +21.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +36.2 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PTRN use?
Our models discount Pattern Group Inc. Series A at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pattern Group Inc. Series A that is +21.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Pattern Group Inc. Series A grew +36.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +21.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pattern Group Inc. Series A (+21.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.38 %: that much free cash flow Pattern Group Inc. Series A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pattern Group Inc. Series A it is $4.87 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $18.27. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, PTRN trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.27, fair value $4.87, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PTRN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.87). For Pattern Group Inc. Series A the two are $13.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock worth?
The market values Pattern Group Inc. Series A at about $3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $18.27; our models calculate a fair value of $4.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PTRN?
Our models span a range for Pattern Group Inc. Series A: cautious scenario $3.41, base $4.87, optimistic $6.32 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $18.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PTRN?
Pattern Group Inc. Series A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.87 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.7, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 18.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pattern Group Inc. Series A (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 19.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PTRN from its 52-week high?
Pattern Group Inc. Series A trades at $18.27, about 38% below its 52-week high of $29.40 and 91% above the low of $9.59 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $18.27, calculated fair value $4.87 (−73%), Quality Score 66/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PTRN calculated?
We run Pattern Group Inc. Series A through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.87 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Pattern Group Inc. Series A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $18.27. Our model-based fair value is $4.87, about 73% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pattern Group Inc. Series A Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($3.41 to $6.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Pattern Group Inc. Series A
How large is the market capitalisation of Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
The market capitalisation of Pattern Group Inc. Series A is $3.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pattern Group Inc. Series A is 0.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
Earnings per share at Pattern Group Inc. Series A are $1.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
The net margin of Pattern Group Inc. Series A is 0.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pattern Group Inc. Series A is 19.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pattern Group Inc. Series A is 8.9% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
The operating margin of Pattern Group Inc. Series A is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
Revenue at Pattern Group Inc. Series A is growing +38.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +36.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN)?
Earnings per share at Pattern Group Inc. Series A are growing −16.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Pattern Group Inc. Series A (PTRN) hold?
Pattern Group Inc. Series A holds more cash than debt, $258M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 7, 2026