Pattern Group (PTRN) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $5.7B
Pattern Group
PTRN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $3.80 to $3.42 (−10.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −20.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 84% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The models converge in a tight band ($3.20 to $3.60), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (11 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
11‑month range $9.59 – $29.40 · fair‑value band $3.20 – $3.60 · the $22.05 price screens above the $3.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Pattern Group (PTRN) currently trades at $22.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.42, implying the stock looks roughly 84.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Pattern Group generated revenue of $2.7B at a net margin of 0.8%. Revenue grew 43.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $258M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.20 (bear case) to $3.60 (bull case); at $22.05, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 147% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -84%, PTRN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($8.30) versus Multiples ($2.30). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Pattern Group Inc. operates as an e-commerce accelerator that combines proprietary technology and on-demand expertise to support consumer brands operating across e-commerce marketplaces in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Pattern Group Inc. operates as an e-commerce accelerator that combines proprietary technology and on-demand expertise to support consumer brands operating across e-commerce marketplaces in the United States and internationally. The company acquires inventory from brand partners to sell to consumers in various industries, including health and wellness; beauty and personal care; home and lifestyle; pet; sports and outdoors; and consumer electronics. The company was formerly known as Covalent Group, Inc. and changed its name to Pattern Group Inc. in November 2024. Pattern Group Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Lehi, Utah.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Pattern Group reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $991M in FY2022, a compound +36.2%/yr. Reported net income was $16.2M in FY2025.
PTRN screens 84% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Pattern Brings AI-Native Advertising to Global Brands, Extending Cross-Platform Reach to ChatGPT Ads
- Pattern Group Shares Fall After Launch of Secondary Stock Offering (PTRN)
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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