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Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Red Cat Holdings stock $3.15, price $3.80, that is 17.1% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Industrials US

RC Red Cat Holdings logo Thin data Nov 13, 2026

Red Cat Holdings

RCAT · US

Expensive (fair value 17% below the price), weak company and falling price: meets none of the 3 rules.

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Low debt 
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +52.1 %/yr in USD) 
Mixed vs. peers (4/10) 
Insiders sold $7.9M (6M) 
Fair value $3.15 · Overvalued 
Quality 37/100 
Falling price (downtrend) 
Loss-making · -136.3% net margin (TTM) 
Negative free cash flow 
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data 
Estimate

Main risks:

🚩Price drop: Missed revenue and earnings targets with continued cash burn
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$17.36 $0.5500 Fair Value $3.15 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.5500 – $17.36 · fair‑value band $2.36 – $3.94 · the $3.80 price screens above the $3.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Red Cat Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides drone and robotic solutions for defense, national security, and commercial applications in the United States.

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The company designs and manufactures small and tactical unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), such as BLACK WIDOW, a short-range reconnaissance war fighter with selectable integrated AI software capabilities; TEAL 2, a blue UAS product of defense used by combat soldiers, police officers, firefighters, wildlife managers, and industrial inspectors; and FANG, a first-person view small UAS. It also develops and produces long-endurance, vertical takeoff, and landing fixed-wing unmanned aircraft systems designed for extended-range intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions, such as THE EDGE 130.

In addition, the company develops BLUE OPS, a battle-tested uncrewed surface vessel weapons system. Further, it provides FANG FPV DRONE, part of ARACHNID family of unmanned intelligence. Red Cat Holdings, Inc. is based in South Salt Lake, Utah.

Stock analysis

Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) currently trades at $3.80, while our estimate is $3.15, 17% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $2.36 (bear) to $3.94 (bull), the price of $3.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Red Cat Holdings reported revenue of $40.7M in FY2026 versus $6.4M in FY2022, a compound +58.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$72.1M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $564M Small · P/S ratio 10.5 · EPS (TTM) $−0.8000 · Net margin −136% · Return on equity −34.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −37.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin −191% · Revenue (TTM) $71.5M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −17%, RCAT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $2.36 Fair Value $3.15 Bull $3.94
Price $3.80 · Downside -17.1%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 92
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 16
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 7
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 11
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 0
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 1
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $7.9M and none bought.

  • SaleJeffrey M ThompsonChairman of the Board, CEO, Director4× since Jul 15, 2026: 600,000 shares, avg. $7.80$4.7MOct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleNicholas Reyland Liuzza JRDirector2× since Aug 11, 2026: 120,000 shares, avg. $9.48$1.1MAug 28, 2026
  • SaleChristopher R. MoeDirector20,000 shares at $10.51$210,200Aug 11, 2026
  • SalePaul Funk IIDirector165,028 shares at $11.50$1.9MJun 11, 2026

Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 13, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+459.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+106.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+52.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+86.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−97.5% (2021) → −163.5% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

RCAT screens overvalued: fair value 17% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →

Note from the team Nov 10, 2026
AI conclusion: Defense orders are lifting revenue yet persistent cash burn and weak profitability remain without any clear competitive moat.
Main risk: Integration and timing risks from the push into integrated air-maritime systems could impair execution and hit results.
Red Cat missed its second-quarter revenue and earnings targets while proposing an all-cash acquisition of Steyr Motors to gain in-house propulsion capabilities. These steps come amid continued cash burn even as defense orders drive revenue higher. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will the push for integrated air-maritime systems overcome integration and timing risks, or will execution shortfalls continue to weigh on results?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 262 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −17.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −26.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −136.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −191.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 527.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.30× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 7.89× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)11 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 65
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 18

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Honeywell Aerospace Inc HONA $165.01 $186.48 +13% vs RCAT
TransDigm Group TDG $1,217 $1,323 +9% vs RCAT
General Dynamics Corporation GD $363.46 $274.19 −25% vs RCAT
Thales S.A HO €227.10 €170.99 −25% vs RCAT
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $596.04 $439.21 −26% vs RCAT
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $550.43 $382.98 −30% vs RCAT
Airbus SE AIR €206.65 €112.14 −46% vs RCAT
RTX Corporation RTX $198.58 $88.19 −56% vs RCAT
General Electric Company GE $331.81 $92.26 −72% vs RCAT
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $220.82 $52.65 −76% vs RCAT

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Red Cat Holdings: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Red Cat Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RCAT

Frequently asked questions

Is Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $3.15 versus a price of $3.80, about 17% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RCAT?
Our estimate for Red Cat Holdings is $3.15 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.80.
What is the quality score of RCAT?
Red Cat Holdings has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $3.15 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Cautious scenario $2.36, optimistic scenario $3.94. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Red Cat Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $3.15, about 17% lower versus a price of $3.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.36, optimistic scenario $3.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)?
Red Cat Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $71.5M (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Red Cat Holdings it is $3.15 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of $3.80.
Is Red Cat Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, RCAT trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.80, fair value $3.15, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RCAT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.15). For Red Cat Holdings the two are $0.6500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Red Cat Holdings worth?
The market values Red Cat Holdings at about $564M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is $3.80; our models calculate a fair value of $3.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RCAT?
Our models span a range for Red Cat Holdings: cautious scenario $2.36, base $3.15, optimistic $3.94 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price $3.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Red Cat Holdings (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity −34.4%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RCAT from its 52-week high?
Red Cat Holdings trades at $3.80, about 78% below its 52-week high of $17.36 and 12% above the low of $3.41 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Red Cat Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Red Cat Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price $3.80, calculated fair value $3.15 (−17%), Quality Score 37/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Red Cat Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was $3.80. Our estimate is $3.15, about 17% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Red Cat Holdings right now?
Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Red Cat Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)?
The market capitalisation of Red Cat Holdings is $564M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Red Cat Holdings is 10.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)?
Earnings per share at Red Cat Holdings are $−0.8000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)?
The net margin of Red Cat Holdings is −136% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Red Cat Holdings is −34.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Red Cat Holdings is −37.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)?
The operating margin of Red Cat Holdings is −191% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Red Cat Holdings (RCAT)?
Revenue at Red Cat Holdings is growing +527% versus a year earlier (3y avg +107%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) generate?
The free cash flow of Red Cat Holdings is −$95.8M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) hold?
Red Cat Holdings holds more cash than debt, $149M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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