SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SIG Combibloc Group AG stock CHF 9.03, price CHF 15.22, that is 40.7% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 7.83 – CHF 25.69 · fair‑value band CHF 5.49 – CHF 12.56 · the CHF 15.22 price screens above the CHF 9.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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SIG Group AG provides aseptic carton packaging systems and solutions for beverage and food products primarily in Europe, India, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and the Americas.
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The company provides carton, bag-in-box, and spouted pouch packaging solutions; filling lines and other related equipment, packaging material, and after-sales services; carton sleeves, closures, and barrier film and fitments; and commodity hedging products.
It operates in China, the United States, Germany, India, Brazil, the Netherlands, Australia, Austria, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Spain, and the United Arab Emirates.
The company was formerly known as SIG Combibloc Group AG and changed its name to SIG Group AG in April 2022. SIG Group AG was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in Neuhausen am Rheinfall, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN) currently trades at CHF 15.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 9.03, 41% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of CHF 11.13 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the CHF 15.22 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at CHF 6.10, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: CHF 5.49 (bear) to CHF 12.56 (bull), the price of CHF 15.22 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SIG Combibloc Group AG reported revenue of €3.3B in FY2025 versus €2.1B in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€87.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 5.8B Mid · P/E ex one-offs 27.7 · P/S ratio 1.63 · EPS (TTM) CHF −0.1100 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin −1.4% · Return on equity −1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 88% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −41%, SIGN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearCHF 5.49Fair Value CHF 9.03BullCHF 12.56
Price CHF 15.22 · Downside -40.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.45/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.7% (2020) → 12.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.1% a year for the price and +0.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (16 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: SIG's main strength is its transformation program that lifted margins and cash flow plus new bag-in-box and filling-machine launches, while its main weak point remains negative net income with no clear durable moat.
Main risk: Intense competition from larger rival Tetra Pak and low-cost Chinese entrant Greatview could erode SIG's market share and force lower prices on aseptic cartons and flexible packaging.
Bull case: By accelerating sustainable innovations such as aluminium-free cartons and operational efficiencies, SIG could gain share from plastic alternatives and mitigate competitive and regulatory pressures.
Bear case: If competition intensifies and regulatory costs rise while debt constrains investment, SIG's volumes in core aseptic and flexible packaging could stagnate or decline as customers shift to alternatives.
SIG is rolling out new bag-in-box fitments for easier foodservice dispensing and high-output aseptic filling machines to support broader beverage applications without extra complexity. These moves build on its transformation program that lifted margins and cash flow in the first half. Yet our models still see the business as overvalued. Will the fresh product launches expand volumes meaningfully in a competitive packaging market or mainly help defend existing positions?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 261 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−40.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−1.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−1.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.78× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.40× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.97× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)27.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)61· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)71· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SIG Combibloc Group AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SIGN
Frequently asked questions
Is SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 9.03 versus a price of CHF 15.22, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SIGN?
Our model-based fair value for SIG Combibloc Group AG is CHF 9.03 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 15.22.
What is the quality score of SIGN?
SIG Combibloc Group AG has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 9.03 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 5.49, optimistic scenario CHF 12.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SIG Combibloc Group AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 9.03, about 41% lower versus a price of CHF 15.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 5.49, optimistic scenario CHF 12.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
SIG Combibloc Group AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does SIG Combibloc Group AG pay a dividend?
SIG Combibloc Group AG currently shows a dividend yield of 3.54% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
SIG Combibloc Group AG has a dividend yield of 3.5%.
What growth is priced into SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SIG Combibloc Group AG would have to grow free cash flow by +17.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SIGN use?
Our models discount SIG Combibloc Group AG at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.76, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SIG Combibloc Group AG that is +17.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SIG Combibloc Group AG grew +12.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +17.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SIG Combibloc Group AG (+17.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.71 %: that much free cash flow SIG Combibloc Group AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SIG Combibloc Group AG it is CHF 9.03 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of CHF 15.22. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is SIG Combibloc Group AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, SIGN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 15.22, fair value CHF 9.03, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SIGN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 15.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 9.03). For SIG Combibloc Group AG the two are CHF 6.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SIG Combibloc Group AG worth?
The market values SIG Combibloc Group AG at about CHF 5.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is CHF 15.22; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 9.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SIGN?
Our models span a range for SIG Combibloc Group AG: cautious scenario CHF 5.49, base CHF 9.03, optimistic CHF 12.56 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price CHF 15.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
Balance-sheet figures for SIG Combibloc Group AG (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −1.5%, debt of 0.78 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SIGN from its 52-week high?
SIG Combibloc Group AG trades at CHF 15.22, about 2% below its 52-week high of CHF 15.56 and 88% above the low of CHF 8.10 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 9.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SIG Combibloc Group AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SIG Combibloc Group AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price CHF 15.22, calculated fair value CHF 9.03 (−41%), Quality Score 46/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SIGN calculated?
We run SIG Combibloc Group AG through 12 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of CHF 9.03 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. SIG Combibloc Group AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was CHF 15.22. Our model-based fair value is CHF 9.03, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SIG Combibloc Group AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 12.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (CHF 5.49 to CHF 12.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of SIG Combibloc Group AG
How large is the market capitalisation of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The market capitalisation of SIG Combibloc Group AG is CHF 5.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of SIG Combibloc Group AG is 27.7 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss, median at FY-end 42.7 (7 FY)).
What is the P/S ratio of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SIG Combibloc Group AG is 1.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
Earnings per share at SIG Combibloc Group AG are CHF −0.1100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The dividend yield of SIG Combibloc Group AG is 3.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The net margin of SIG Combibloc Group AG is −1.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SIG Combibloc Group AG is −1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SIG Combibloc Group AG is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
The operating margin of SIG Combibloc Group AG is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
Revenue at SIG Combibloc Group AG is growing −1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN)?
Earnings per share at SIG Combibloc Group AG are growing +47.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SIG Combibloc Group AG (SIGN) carry?
The net debt of SIG Combibloc Group AG is €2.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026