Sonoco Products Company (SON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sonoco Products Company stock $56.94, price $50.43, upside +12.9%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.64 – $60.00 · fair‑value band $26.78 – $85.19 · the $50.43 price screens below the $56.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Sonoco Products Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells various engineered and sustainable packaging products in the United States, Europe, Canada, the Asia Pacific, and internationally.
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The company operates in two segments, Consumer Packaging and Industrial Paper Packaging. The Consumer Packaging segment offers round and shaped rigid paper, steel, and plastic containers, as well as metal and peelable membrane ends, closures, and components.
Its Industrial Paper Packaging segment provides paperboard tubes, cones, and cores; paper-based protective packaging; and uncoated recycled paperboards. The company also offers packaging materials, such as plastic, paper, foam, and various other specialty materials.
It sells its products in various markets, including the paper, textile, film, food, packaging, construction, and wire and cable markets. The company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Hartsville, South Carolina.
Stock analysis
Sonoco Products Company (SON) currently trades at $50.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $56.94, implying the stock looks roughly 11% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $68.15 per share, and 14 of the 23 models we run sit above the $50.43 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $28.31, and 9 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $26.78 (bear) to $85.19 (bull), the price of $50.43 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Sonoco Products Company reported revenue of $7.5B in FY2025 versus $5.6B in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was $396M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $5.0B Mid · P/E ratio 7.8 · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) $6.46 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 8.4% · Return on equity 18.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 13%, SON screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$26.78Fair Value $56.94Bull$85.19
Price $50.43 · Upside +12.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.70 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $249,446, on Aug 7, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $15,284.
BuyR. Howard CokerPresident & CEO4,345 shares at $57.41$249,446Aug 7, 2026
SaleJohn M FlorenceGnl Council, Secy, VP261 shares at $58.56$15,284Jul 29, 2026
BuyJames A. Harrell IIIPres. Global Ind. Paper Pkg.6,753 shares at $50.37$340,164Apr 27, 2026
BuyPaul JoachimczykCFO8,058 shares at $49.64$399,999Apr 24, 2026
SaleErnest D Haynes IIIPres. Consumer Pkg Americas1,581 shares at $56.39$89,153Feb 27, 2026
SaleJames A. Harrell IIIPres. Global Ind. Paper Pkg.20 shares at $57.84$1,157Feb 19, 2026
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+41.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.0% vs 5.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.4% a year for the price and −0.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Sonoco shows moderate packaging metrics but limited evidence of a durable moat, with thin signals on innovation and capabilities, while recent refinancing provides flexibility to back productivity plans.
Main risk: AI-driven efficiency gains in winding technology could steadily reduce the diameter and weight of cores needed per unit of substrate, lowering volumes and margins in Sonoco's industrial tubes and cores segment.
Bull case: Sonoco could leverage its AI investments in manufacturing and design to develop lighter, more recyclable fiber solutions that capture share from plastic alternatives amid sustainability mandates.
Bear case: Persistent AI-driven reductions in core consumption combined with sustained high leverage could erode industrial volumes and limit flexibility, pressuring margins across the packaging portfolio without offsetting growth.
Sonoco recently refinanced part of its debt, extending maturities to 2029 and 2031 and adding delayed-draw facilities without raising near-term principal payments. This gives more room to support productivity plans and packaging initiatives even while some forecasts point to softer earnings momentum. Will the added financial flexibility help offset volume and cost pressures, or will it mainly extend the runway without fixing the core challenges?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 260 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+12.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)10.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−1.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.05× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)7.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.39× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.67× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.6× · Pricier than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sonoco Products Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SON
Frequently asked questions
Is Sonoco Products Company (SON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $56.94 versus a price of $50.43, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SON?
Our model-based fair value for Sonoco Products Company is $56.94 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $50.43.
What is the quality score of SON?
Sonoco Products Company has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $56.94 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $26.78, optimistic scenario $85.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sonoco Products Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $56.94, about +13% upside versus a price of $50.43 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $26.78, optimistic scenario $85.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
Sonoco Products Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Sonoco Products Company pay a dividend?
Sonoco Products Company currently shows a dividend yield of 4.22% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Sonoco Products Company (SON) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Sonoco Products Company pays a dividend of $2.13 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.2%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1989. The payout ratio is 33.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.64 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sonoco Products Company would have to grow free cash flow by +11.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SON use?
Our models discount Sonoco Products Company at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sonoco Products Company that is +11.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sonoco Products Company (SON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sonoco Products Company grew +7.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +11.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sonoco Products Company (SON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sonoco Products Company (+11.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.87 %: that much free cash flow Sonoco Products Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sonoco Products Company it is $56.94 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $50.43. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Sonoco Products Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, SON trades below its calculated fair value: price $50.43, fair value $56.94, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SON?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($50.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($56.94). For Sonoco Products Company the two are $6.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sonoco Products Company worth?
The market values Sonoco Products Company at about $5.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $50.43; our models calculate a fair value of $56.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SON?
Our models span a range for Sonoco Products Company: cautious scenario $26.78, base $56.94, optimistic $85.19 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $50.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SON?
Sonoco Products Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $56.94 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 18.7. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.8.
What is the PEG ratio of SON?
The PEG ratio of Sonoco Products Company is 0.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sonoco Products Company (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 18.9%, debt of 1.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SON from its 52-week high?
Sonoco Products Company trades at $50.43, about 16% below its 52-week high of $60.00 and 31% above the low of $38.63 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $56.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sonoco Products Company?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sonoco Products Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $50.43, calculated fair value $56.94 (+13%), Quality Score 52/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SON calculated?
We run Sonoco Products Company through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $56.94 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Sonoco Products Company currently trades 11% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $50.43. Our model-based fair value is $56.94, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sonoco Products Company right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($26.78 to $85.19). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Sonoco Products Company (SON) come from?
Earnings per share at Sonoco Products Company grew +3.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin −0.2 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sonoco Products Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
The market capitalisation of Sonoco Products Company is $5.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sonoco Products Company is 0.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
Earnings per share at Sonoco Products Company are $6.46 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
The dividend yield of Sonoco Products Company is 4.2% (payout 33.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
The net margin of Sonoco Products Company is 8.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sonoco Products Company is 18.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sonoco Products Company is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
The operating margin of Sonoco Products Company is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
Revenue at Sonoco Products Company is growing −1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sonoco Products Company (SON)?
Earnings per share at Sonoco Products Company are growing −78.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sonoco Products Company (SON) carry?
The net debt of Sonoco Products Company is $4.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026