Synchrony Financial (SYF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Synchrony Financial stock $142, price $74.07, upside +91.6%, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs 48% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value $141.92 · Strongly undervalued (48%)
Quality 72/100
Highly profitable · 34.1% net margin (TTM)
1.7% dividend yield · Low payout
Ranks above peers(11/15)
Broad data
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 44% above the price ($106.44).
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +8.3 %/yr in USD)
Wide moat76/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $4.5M (6M)
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Regulatory caps on credit pricing and fees🚩BNPL fintechs like Affirm and Klarna eroding POS financing🚩High revenue concentration in few retail partners
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.99 – $87.38 · fair‑value band $106.44 – $177.40 · the $74.07 price screens below the $141.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Synchrony Financial, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a consumer financial services company in the United States. The company provides credit products, such as credit cards, commercial credit products, and consumer installment loans.
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It also offers private label credit cards, dual and general purpose co-branded cards, short- and long-term installment loans, and consumer banking products; and deposit products, including certificates of deposit, individual retirement accounts, money market accounts, savings accounts, and sweep and affinity deposits, as well as accepts deposits through third-party firms.
In addition, the company provides debt cancellation products to its credit card customers through online and mobile channels; and healthcare payments and financing solutions under the CareCredit and Walgreens brands; payments and financing solutions in the apparel, specialty retail, outdoor, music, and luxury industries, such as American Eagle, Dick's Sporting Goods, Guitar Center, Pandora, Polaris, Suzuki, and Sweetwater.
It offers its credit products through programs established with a group of national and regional retailers, local merchants, manufacturers, buying groups, industry associations, and healthcare service providers; and deposit products through various channels, such as digital and print.
It serves digital, health and wellness, retail, home, auto, telecommunications, pet, outdoor, and other industries. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
Stock analysis
Synchrony Financial (SYF) currently trades at $74.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $141.92, implying the stock looks roughly 48% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $290.15 per share, and 8 of the 12 models we run sit above the $74.07 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $22.04, and 4 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $106.44 (bear) to $177.40 (bull), the price of $74.07 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Synchrony Financial reported revenue of $19.1B in FY2025 versus $11.2B in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was $3.6B in FY2025, compounding −4.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $24.7B Large · P/E ratio 7.7 · P/S ratio 2.53 · EPS (TTM) $9.58 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 34.1% · Return on equity 19.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 92%, SYF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$106.44Fair Value $141.92Bull$177.40
Price $74.07 · Upside +91.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.08 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $4.5M and none bought.
SaleAlberto CasellasOfficer4× since Feb 17, 2026: 67,163 shares, avg. $71.26$4.8MAug 13, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleArthur W Coviello JrDirector3× since Feb 2, 2026: 12,000 shares, avg. $75.35$904,160Aug 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDarrell OwensOfficer3× since Feb 17, 2026: 14,779 shares, avg. $70.10$1.0MAug 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleCourtney GentlemanOfficer3× since Feb 17, 2026: 17,104 shares, avg. $70.13$1.2MAug 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJonathan S MothnerOfficer2× since Nov 17, 2025: 83,258 shares, avg. $71.83$6.0MMay 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleCurtis HowseOfficer3× since Feb 2, 2026: 68,874 shares, avg. $72.31$5.0MMay 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBrian J. Wenzel Sr.Officer66,692 shares at $67.32$4.5MMar 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBrian D DoublesOfficer, Director217,554 shares at $68.68$14.9MMar 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBart SchallerOfficer2× since Feb 17, 2026: 48,280 shares, avg. $69.82$3.4MMar 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleCarol JuelOfficer2× since Feb 17, 2026: 61,270 shares, avg. $69.80$4.3MMar 2, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 68 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.8% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+20.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.3% vs 13.9%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 24%
2025 sits 59% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−29.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −30.8% a year for the price and −3.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat potential from scale in credit services supports solid returns, while thin public signals and possible regulatory rate limits constrain durability assessment.
Main risk: Regulators such as the CFPB or Congress could impose or revive caps on late fees or interest rates, which would constrain pricing and reduce margins on Synchrony's core credit products.
Synchrony grows purchase volumes fastest among Gen Z and millennials by using cash-flow underwriting across thousands of data points. It is also embedding financing into AI shopping tools through its OpenAI partnership. Does the company gain more from these digital channels than it loses if credit performance weakens?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 286 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+91.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)34.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)49.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−4.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.91× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Synchrony Financial Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SYF
Frequently asked questions
Is Synchrony Financial (SYF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $141.92 versus a price of $74.07, about +92% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SYF?
Our model-based fair value for Synchrony Financial is $141.92 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $74.07.
What is the quality score of SYF?
Synchrony Financial has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $141.92 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $106.44, optimistic scenario $177.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Synchrony Financial stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $141.92, about +92% upside versus a price of $74.07 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $106.44, optimistic scenario $177.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
Synchrony Financial reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Synchrony Financial pay a dividend?
Synchrony Financial currently shows a dividend yield of 1.67% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Synchrony Financial would have to grow free cash flow by -29.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.3 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SYF use?
Our models discount Synchrony Financial at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Synchrony Financial that is -29.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Synchrony Financial (SYF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Synchrony Financial grew +8.3 % a year. The price currently implies -29.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Synchrony Financial (SYF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Synchrony Financial (-29.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 39.81 %: that much free cash flow Synchrony Financial produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Synchrony Financial it is $141.92 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $74.07. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Synchrony Financial stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, SYF trades below its calculated fair value: price $74.07, fair value $141.92, a gap of about +92% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SYF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($74.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($141.92). For Synchrony Financial the two are $67.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Synchrony Financial worth?
The market values Synchrony Financial at about $24.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $74.07; our models calculate a fair value of $141.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SYF?
Our models span a range for Synchrony Financial: cautious scenario $106.44, base $141.92, optimistic $177.40 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $74.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SYF?
Synchrony Financial trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $141.92 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 6.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.5, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 4.9.
What is the PEG ratio of SYF?
The PEG ratio of Synchrony Financial is 0.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Synchrony Financial (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 19.8%, debt of 0.91 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SYF from its 52-week high?
Synchrony Financial trades at $74.07, about 15% below its 52-week high of $87.38 and 17% above the low of $63.25 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $141.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Synchrony Financial?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Synchrony Financial stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $74.07, calculated fair value $141.92 (+92%), Quality Score 72/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SYF calculated?
We run Synchrony Financial through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $141.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Synchrony Financial currently trades 48% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $74.07. Our model-based fair value is $141.92, about +92% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Synchrony Financial right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($106.44). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (72/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Synchrony Financial (SYF) come from?
Earnings per share at Synchrony Financial grew +12.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.2 %, EBIT margin −4.4 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Synchrony Financial
How large is the market capitalisation of Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
The market capitalisation of Synchrony Financial is $24.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Synchrony Financial is 2.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
Earnings per share at Synchrony Financial are $9.58 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
The dividend yield of Synchrony Financial is 1.7% (payout 12.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
The net margin of Synchrony Financial is 34.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Synchrony Financial is 19.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Synchrony Financial is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
The operating margin of Synchrony Financial is 49.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
Revenue at Synchrony Financial is growing −4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Synchrony Financial (SYF)?
Earnings per share at Synchrony Financial are growing −6.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Synchrony Financial (SYF) carry?
The net debt of Synchrony Financial is $209M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026