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Data-driven stock valuation

Telefonica (TEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Telefonica stock €8.17, price €3.39, upside +141.4%, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 8 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Communication Services ES · ISIN ES0178430E18

T Telefonica logo Some data Nov 8, 2026

Telefonica

TEF · MC
Cheap, value-trap risk

The stock costs 59% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value €8.17 · Strongly undervalued
Generates free cash flow
8.9% dividend yield · Cash covered
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 41% above the price (€4.77).
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Some data
Quality 37/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.0 %/yr in EUR)
Loss-making · -9.1% net margin (TTM)
High debt
Narrow moat 23/100 · thin data

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Fresh competitive pressure from new entrants in the telecom sector🚩Regulated access to ducts and poles🚩High leverage in UK joint venture🚩Concentration on few network suppliers
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€4.50 €2.39 Fair Value €8.17 Sep 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €2.39 – €4.50 · fair‑value band €4.77 – €11.38 · the €3.39 price screens below the €8.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Telefónica, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Europe and Latin America.

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The company offers mobile and related services and products, including mobile voice, value added, mobile data and internet, wholesale, corporate, roaming, fixed wireless, and trunking and paging services; traditional fixed telecommunication services, such as PSTN lines; ISDN accesses; public telephone services; local, domestic, and international long-distance and fixed-to-mobile communications; corporate communications; supplementary value-added services; video telephony; intelligent network; telephony information services; and leases and sells handset equipment.

It also provides internet provider service; portal and network, retail and wholesale broadband access, narrowband switched access and other technologies, internet through fibre to the home, very high bit-rate digital subscriber line, and voice over internet protocol services; leased line, virtual private network, fibre optics, web and managed hosting, content delivery and application, security, and outsourcing and consultancy services, including network management or CGP; and desktop, system integration, and professional services.

In addition, the company offers wholesale services for telecommunication operators, such as domestic interconnection and international wholesale services; leased lines for other operators; and local loop leasing services, as well as bit stream services, wholesale line rental accesses, and leased ducts for other operators' fiber deployment.

Further, it provides video/TV services; smart connectivity and services; financial and other payment, cloud, security, advertising, and big data services; digital products; Aura, an artificial-intelligence ecosystem; Movistar Home device; open gateway; living apps; smart Wi-Fi; NT; Solar 360; and Phoenix, a digital sales platform.

Telefónica, S.A. was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.

Stock analysis

Telefonica (TEF) currently trades at €3.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.17, implying the stock looks roughly 59% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €8.17 per share, and 7 of the 8 models we run sit above the €3.39 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €4.17, and 1 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €4.77 (bear) to €11.38 (bull), the price of €3.39 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Telefonica reported revenue of €35.1B in FY2025 versus €39.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€4.3B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €19.1B Large · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) €−0.4300 · Dividend yield 8.9% · Net margin −12.3% · Return on equity −10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 9.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 51% fair-value upside, at 141%, TEF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €4.77 Fair Value €8.17 Bull €11.38
Price €3.39 · Upside +141.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF €6.69 €10.22 €17.27 78
Growth DCF €7.10 €10.55 €16.84 77
5Y EBITDA Exit €4.77 €8.17 €12.87 74
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €6.69 €10.22 €17.27 78
5Y Revenue Exit €1.90 €3.31 €5.46 71
5Y EBITDA Exit €4.77 €8.17 €12.87 74
10Y Revenue Exit €3.62 €5.10 €6.65 67
10Y EBITDA Exit €5.44 €8.27 €11.38 68
Multiples
EV/EBITDA €1.31 €4.17 €7.03 61
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €7.10 €10.55 €16.84 77
Rev-Margin DCF €1.90 €3.56 €5.80 70

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 4
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 10
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 59
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 8
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 77
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 89
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 32
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 33
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 85
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 15/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.9% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
13.9% (2020) → 5.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.3% a year for the price and −1.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−4.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.0%

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Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Restructuring Spanish operations into three specialized units supports efficiency gains, yet sustained losses and competitive pressure from new entrants constrain durable advantages.
Main risk: Spanish regulators could mandate lower fees or easier access for rivals to Telefonica's extensive duct and pole network, eroding wholesale margins and infrastructure revenues.
Bull case: By leveraging its infrastructure position and AI-driven network systems Telefonica could secure long-term wholesale contracts and expand enterprise services to offset any access constraints.
Bear case: Persistent regulatory demands on infrastructure access combined with JV debt pressures might force asset sales or reduced investment, limiting competitiveness in core European markets.
Telefónica is restructuring its Spanish operations into three separate units for business customers, residential and wholesale to cut duplication and push digital services harder. Recent half-year results showed modest revenue growth in Spain yet the telecom sector faces fresh competitive pressure from new entrants. Our models currently see the stock as undervalued. Will the changes strengthen execution in Europe or mainly create short-term disruption?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 234 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +141.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −4.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −9.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 9.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −12.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 8.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.97× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.34× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 0.53× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 4.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 6.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.38× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 44
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 23
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)1 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 72

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Comcast Corporation CMCSA $24.39 $73.17 +200% vs TEF
T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS $162.01 $272.88 +68% vs TEF
AT&T Inc T $21.63 $34.27 +58% vs TEF
China Mobile Limited 0941 HK$81.10 HK$126.41 +56% vs TEF
Verizon Communications Inc VZ $45.69 $69.14 +51% vs TEF
China Telecom Corporation 601728 ¥6.91 ¥8.36 +21% vs TEF
Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL ₹2,107 ₹1,701 −19% vs TEF
Saudi Telecom Company 7010 41.20 SAR 32.49 SAR −21% vs TEF
Swisscom AG SCMN CHF 720.00 CHF 505.18 −30% vs TEF
Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z74 4.09 SGD 2.16 SGD −47% vs TEF

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Telefonica Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TEF

Frequently asked questions

Is Telefonica (TEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €8.17 versus a price of €3.39, about +141% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TEF?
Our model-based fair value for Telefonica is €8.17 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €3.39.
What is the quality score of TEF?
Telefonica has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Telefonica (TEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €8.17 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario €4.77, optimistic scenario €11.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Telefonica stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €8.17, about +141% upside versus a price of €3.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €4.77, optimistic scenario €11.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Telefonica (TEF)?
Telefonica reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €36.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Telefonica pay a dividend?
Telefonica currently shows a dividend yield of 8.86% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Telefonica (TEF)?
Telefonica pays a dividend of €0.3 per share a year, a dividend yield of 8.9%. A dividend has been paid every year since 2003. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.76 times. Our assessment: Cash covered. The dividend is fully funded by free cash flow. The payout ratio on earnings is not available for this company.
What growth is priced into Telefonica (TEF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Telefonica would have to grow free cash flow by -5.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.0 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TEF use?
Our models discount Telefonica at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Telefonica that is -5.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Telefonica (TEF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Telefonica grew -4.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -5.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Telefonica (TEF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Telefonica (-5.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Telefonica (TEF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.50 %: that much free cash flow Telefonica produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Telefonica (TEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Telefonica it is €8.17 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €3.39. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF).
Is Telefonica stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, TEF trades below its calculated fair value: price €3.39, fair value €8.17, a gap of about +141% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€3.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€8.17). For Telefonica the two are €4.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Telefonica worth?
The market values Telefonica at about €19.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €3.39; our models calculate a fair value of €8.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TEF?
Our models span a range for Telefonica: cautious scenario €4.77, base €8.17, optimistic €11.38 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €3.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TEF?
The PEG ratio of Telefonica is 0.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Telefonica (TEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Telefonica (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −10.3%, debt of 1.97 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TEF from its 52-week high?
Telefonica trades at €3.39, about 14% below its 52-week high of €3.95 and 9% above the low of €3.11 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €8.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Telefonica?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Telefonica stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €3.39, calculated fair value €8.17 (+141%), Quality Score 37/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TEF calculated?
We run Telefonica through 8 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €8.17 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Telefonica currently trades 59% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Telefonica (TEF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €3.39. Our model-based fair value is €8.17, about +141% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Telefonica right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€4.77). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (€4.77 to €11.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Telefonica

How large is the market capitalisation of Telefonica (TEF)?
The market capitalisation of Telefonica is €19.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Telefonica (TEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Telefonica is 0.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Telefonica (TEF)?
Earnings per share at Telefonica are €−0.4300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Telefonica (TEF)?
The dividend yield of Telefonica is 8.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Telefonica (TEF)?
The net margin of Telefonica is −12.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Telefonica (TEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Telefonica is −10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Telefonica (TEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Telefonica is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Telefonica (TEF)?
The operating margin of Telefonica is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Telefonica (TEF)?
Revenue at Telefonica is growing −12.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Telefonica (TEF)?
Earnings per share at Telefonica are growing +26.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Telefonica (TEF) carry?
The net debt of Telefonica is €41.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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