Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tyson Foods Inc stock $73.24, price $60.11, upside +21.8%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $40.70 – $84.97 · fair‑value band $41.23 – $92.51 · the $60.11 price screens below the $73.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Tyson Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Beef, Pork, Chicken, and Prepared Foods.
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The company processes live fed cattle and hogs; fabricates dressed beef and pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts, as well as case ready beef and pork, and fully cooked meats; raises and processes chickens into fresh, frozen, and value-added chicken products, including breaded chicken strips, nuggets, patties, and other ready-to-fix or fully cooked chicken parts; and supplies poultry breeding stock.
It also manufactures and markets frozen and refrigerated food products, including ready-to-eat sandwiches, flame-grilled hamburgers, Philly steaks, pepperoni, bacon, breakfast sausage, turkey, lunchmeat, hot dogs, flour and corn tortilla products, appetizers, snacks, prepared meals, ethnic foods, side dishes, meat dishes, breadsticks, and processed meats under the Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, Wright, Aidells, Gallo Salame, ibp, and State Fair brands.
The company sells its products through its sales staff to grocery retailers, grocery wholesalers, meat distributors, warehouse club stores, military commissaries, industrial food processing companies, chain restaurants or their distributors, live markets, international export companies, and domestic distributors who serve restaurants and food service operations, such as plant and school cafeterias, convenience stores, hospitals, and other vendors, as well as through independent brokers and trading companies.
Tyson Foods, Inc. was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Springdale, Arkansas.
Stock analysis
Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) currently trades at $60.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $73.24, implying the stock looks roughly 18% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $46.55 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $60.11 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $8.84, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $41.23 (bear) to $92.51 (bull), the price of $60.11 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tyson Foods Inc reported revenue of $54.4B in FY2025 versus $47.0B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was $474M in FY2025, compounding −37.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $21.0B Large · P/E ratio 34.2 · P/S ratio 0.38 · EPS (TTM) $1.62 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 22%, TSN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$41.23Fair Value $73.24Bull$92.51
Price $60.11 · Upside +21.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.12 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$36.23$71.12$129.7275
Residual Income$38.42$37.89$38.5575
Growth DCF$37.62$69.02$118.7574
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$36.23$71.12$129.7275
Owner Earnings$20.96$46.23$88.6771
5Y Revenue Exit$23.01$46.27$75.6569
5Y EBITDA Exit$45.93$89.14$139.5672
5Y P/E Exit$11.64$25.00$38.6568
10Y Revenue Exit$25.76$48.67$78.9364
10Y EBITDA Exit$42.23$79.72$129.8265
10Y P/E Exit$19.44$33.27$49.4762
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$9.21$28.55$37.9562
Lynch FV$6.19$8.84$11.5058
PEG = 1.0$6.19$8.84$11.5055
EPV$16.06$22.59$28.4872
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$19.96$45.69$81.9462
DDM Multi-Stage$19.96$34.21$47.2764
Multiples
P/E Multiple$21.33$28.44$35.5561
P/S Multiple$17.27$23.02$28.7856
P/B Multiple$35.26$47.02$58.7753
EV/EBIT$30.78$48.27$65.7763
EV/EBITDA$56.34$82.36$108.3865
EV/Revenue$15.75$31.81$47.8650
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$4.27$5.73$8.5552
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$37.62$69.02$118.7574
Rev-Margin DCF$23.01$46.55$73.6870
Economic Profit
Residual Income$38.42$37.89$38.5575
ROIC Compounder$16.06$22.59$28.4871
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$17.61$25.16$32.7166
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $1.0M, on Sep 4, 2026.
BuyJeffrey K SchomburgerPresident & CEO Elect, Director19,450 shares at $51.50$1.0MSep 4, 2026
SaleJohn H TysonChairman of the Board, Director100,301 shares at $58.05$5.8MNov 28, 2025
SaleCurt CalawayChief Financial Officer6,539 shares at $57.19$373,965Nov 25, 2025
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−24.8% vs −7.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.0% a year for the price and −1.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Tyson's shift of chicken operations toward a stable demand-led model now accounting for three-quarters of operating income forms the main strength, while thin evidence of a durable moat and persistently low profitability metrics remain the central weakness.
Main risk: Competitors such as Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods could draw away customers preferring plant-based options and force Tyson to lower prices or accept thinner margins on conventional proteins.
Bull case: Tyson could expand its own alternative protein offerings and leverage its distribution scale to capture more demand from shifting consumer preferences.
Bear case: If plant-based and cultivated alternatives gain significant traction among flexitarians, Tyson might face sustained erosion of its conventional meat volumes and margins.
Tyson keeps consolidating its beef plants to cope with the historic cattle shortage while its chicken business shifts toward demand-led sales and value-added products. Roughly three-quarters of chicken operating income now comes from this more stable commercial model. Will the beef fixes cut losses quicker than the chicken gains can stabilize overall results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 289 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside+21.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.3% · Below median
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)34.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.16× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.38× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)17.9× · Pricier than median
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Is Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $73.24 versus a price of $60.11, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TSN?
Our model-based fair value for Tyson Foods Inc is $73.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $60.11.
What is the quality score of TSN?
Tyson Foods Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $73.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $41.23, optimistic scenario $92.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tyson Foods Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $73.24, about +22% upside versus a price of $60.11 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $41.23, optimistic scenario $92.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
Tyson Foods Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $55.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Tyson Foods Inc pay a dividend?
Tyson Foods Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.83% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tyson Foods Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +8.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TSN use?
Our models discount Tyson Foods Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tyson Foods Inc that is +8.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tyson Foods Inc grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies +8.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tyson Foods Inc (+8.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.59 %: that much free cash flow Tyson Foods Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tyson Foods Inc it is $73.24 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $60.11. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tyson Foods Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TSN trades below its calculated fair value: price $60.11, fair value $73.24, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($60.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($73.24). For Tyson Foods Inc the two are $13.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tyson Foods Inc worth?
The market values Tyson Foods Inc at about $21.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $60.11; our models calculate a fair value of $73.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSN?
Our models span a range for Tyson Foods Inc: cautious scenario $41.23, base $73.24, optimistic $92.51 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $60.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSN?
Tyson Foods Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $73.24 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 23.9 (reported for FY2025: 44.2). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 14.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TSN?
The PEG ratio of Tyson Foods Inc is 1.04 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tyson Foods Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSN from its 52-week high?
Tyson Foods Inc trades at $60.11, about 11% below its 52-week high of $67.54 and 20% above the low of $49.93 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $73.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tyson Foods Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Muyuan Foods Group, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Bunge Global SA, Wens Foodstuff Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tyson Foods Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $60.11, calculated fair value $73.24 (+22%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSN calculated?
We run Tyson Foods Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $73.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Tyson Foods Inc currently trades 18% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $60.11. Our model-based fair value is $73.24, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tyson Foods Inc right now?
Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($41.23 to $92.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) come from?
Earnings per share at Tyson Foods Inc grew −6.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.7 %, EBIT margin −7.5 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tyson Foods Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
The market capitalisation of Tyson Foods Inc is $21.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tyson Foods Inc is 0.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
Earnings per share at Tyson Foods Inc are $1.62 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
The dividend yield of Tyson Foods Inc is 0.8% (payout 16.7%, on adjusted earnings, reported 30.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
The net margin of Tyson Foods Inc is 1.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tyson Foods Inc is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tyson Foods Inc is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
The operating margin of Tyson Foods Inc is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
Revenue at Tyson Foods Inc is growing −0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tyson Foods Inc (TSN)?
Earnings per share at Tyson Foods Inc are growing +204% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) carry?
The net debt of Tyson Foods Inc is $7.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026