Trade Desk Inc (TTD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Trade Desk Inc stock $38.43, price $12.81, upside +200.0%, quality 77 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs 67% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value $38.43 · Strongly undervalued (67%)
Quality 77/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +28.2 %/yr in USD)
Solidly profitable · 13.6% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers(10/14)
Wide moat65/100
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 66% above the price ($21.30).
Insiders sold $1.1M (6M)
Thin data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: US slowdown from cautious spending in autos and consumer goods plus revenue decline guidance🚩Revenue decline guidance next quarter amid competition from larger platforms
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.92 – $139.51 · fair‑value band $21.30 – $50.01 · the $12.81 price screens below the $38.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally.
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The company creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers and digital-out-of-home devices.
It provides data and other value-added services. It serves advertising agencies, advertisers, and other service providers for agencies or advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.
Stock analysis
Trade Desk Inc (TTD) currently trades at $12.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.43, implying the stock looks roughly 67% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $47.86 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the $12.81 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $8.60, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $21.30 (bear) to $50.01 (bull), the price of $12.81 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Trade Desk Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was $443M in FY2025, compounding +33.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.0B Mid · P/E ratio 15.7 · P/S ratio 2.01 · EPS (TTM) $0.8300 · Net margin 13.6% · Return on equity 15.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% · Operating margin 14.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 200%, TTD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$21.30Fair Value $38.43Bull$50.01
Price $12.81 · Upside +200.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7049 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $1.1M and none bought.
SaleSamantha JacobsonDirector53,681 shares at $21.14$1.1MMay 28, 2026
SaleKathryn E FalbergDirector152,828 shares at $30.46$4.7MMar 5, 2026
BuyJeffrey Terry GreenPresident and CEO, Director, 10% owner6,000,000 shares at $24.68$148.1MMar 4, 2026
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +38.2% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+17.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27.1% vs 39.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 20%
2025 sits 157% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.3% a year for the price and −6.5% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: High customer retention above 95 percent for over a decade together with faster EMEA and APAC growth represent the main strength, offset by US slowdown and expected revenue decline from competition by larger platforms.
Main risk: Competition from larger platforms threatens revenue as the company already signals a decline next quarter amid platform shifts affecting domestic results.
The Trade Desk shows faster growth in EMEA and APAC than overall, even as US results slow from cautious spending in autos and consumer goods. Customer retention stays above 95 percent for over a decade while guidance signals a revenue decline next quarter amid competition from larger platforms. Our models see the shares as undervalued. Will the international expansion offset domestic pressure and platform shifts, or will the slowdown prove more lasting?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 176 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)14.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.42× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.01× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)7.6× · Cheaper than median
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Is Trade Desk Inc (TTD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.43 versus a price of $12.81, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TTD?
Our model-based fair value for Trade Desk Inc is $38.43 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.81.
What is the quality score of TTD?
Trade Desk Inc has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.43 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.30, optimistic scenario $50.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trade Desk Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.43, about +200% upside versus a price of $12.81 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $21.30, optimistic scenario $50.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
Trade Desk Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Trade Desk Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -12.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.2 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TTD use?
Our models discount Trade Desk Inc at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Trade Desk Inc that is -12.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Trade Desk Inc (TTD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Trade Desk Inc grew +28.2 % a year. The price currently implies -12.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Trade Desk Inc (TTD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Trade Desk Inc (-12.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.22 %: that much free cash flow Trade Desk Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trade Desk Inc it is $38.43 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $12.81. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trade Desk Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, TTD trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.81, fair value $38.43, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TTD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.43). For Trade Desk Inc the two are $25.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trade Desk Inc worth?
The market values Trade Desk Inc at about $6.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $12.81; our models calculate a fair value of $38.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TTD?
Our models span a range for Trade Desk Inc: cautious scenario $21.30, base $38.43, optimistic $50.01 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $12.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TTD?
Trade Desk Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.7 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $38.43 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 201.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 2.4, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
What is the PEG ratio of TTD?
The PEG ratio of Trade Desk Inc is 1.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trade Desk Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 15.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TTD from its 52-week high?
Trade Desk Inc trades at $12.81, about 73% below its 52-week high of $47.70 and 7% above the low of $11.92 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Trade Desk Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trade Desk Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $12.81, calculated fair value $38.43 (+200%), Quality Score 77/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TTD calculated?
We run Trade Desk Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $38.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Trade Desk Inc currently trades 67% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $12.81. Our model-based fair value is $38.43, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Trade Desk Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (77/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($21.30). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($21.30 to $50.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Trade Desk Inc (TTD) come from?
Earnings per share at Trade Desk Inc grew +35.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +30.6 %, EBIT margin −5.1 %, tax rate +3.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Trade Desk Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
The market capitalisation of Trade Desk Inc is $6.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Trade Desk Inc is 2.01 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
Earnings per share at Trade Desk Inc are $0.8300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
The net margin of Trade Desk Inc is 13.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Trade Desk Inc is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trade Desk Inc is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
The operating margin of Trade Desk Inc is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
Revenue at Trade Desk Inc is growing +3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Trade Desk Inc (TTD)?
Earnings per share at Trade Desk Inc are growing −23.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Trade Desk Inc (TTD) hold?
Trade Desk Inc holds more cash than debt, $222M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 5, 2026