TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of TXNM Energy, Inc. stock $20.71, price $58.22, that is 64.4% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.19 – $59.05 · fair‑value band $13.54 – $25.14 · the $58.22 price screens above the $20.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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TXNM Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides electricity and electric services in the United States.
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The company engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity for retail electric customers; and owns and leases communications, office and other equipment, office space, vehicles, energy storage facilities, and real estate.
It also provides regulated transmission and distribution services in Texas, as well as owns and leases vehicles, service facilities, and office locations throughout its service territory. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers and end-users of electricity in New Mexico and Texas.
The company was formerly known as PNM Resources, Inc and changed its name to TXNM Energy, Inc. in August 2024. TXNM Energy, Inc. was founded in 1882 and is based in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Stock analysis
TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) currently trades at $58.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.71, 64% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $50.12 per share, and 2 of the 14 models we run sit above the $58.22 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $9.84, and 12 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $13.54 (bear) to $25.14 (bull), the price of $58.22 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
TXNM Energy, Inc. reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $151M in FY2025, compounding −6.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.5B Mid · P/E ratio 29.1 · P/S ratio 2.79 · EPS (TTM) $2.00 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 9.9% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −64%, TXNM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.54Fair Value $20.71Bull$25.14
Price $58.22 · Downside -64.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2650 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$23.93$24.36$25.6276
EPVn/an/a$1.5468
ROIC Compoundern/an/a$1.5468
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$9.35$30.67$41.0064
Lynch FV$6.89$9.84$12.7961
PEG = 1.0$6.89$9.84$12.7957
EPVn/an/a$1.5468
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$14.25$31.07$52.1865
DDM Multi-Stage$14.25$24.61$32.3966
Multiples
P/E Multiple$18.56$24.74$30.9363
P/S Multiple$17.52$23.37$29.2158
P/B Multiple$38.32$51.09$63.8655
EV/EBIT$45.06$60.08$75.1166
EV/EBITDA$62.96$83.95$104.9367
EV/Revenue$34.40$49.15$63.9053
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$14.19$19.02$28.3854
Economic Profit
Residual Income$23.93$24.36$25.6276
ROIC Compoundern/an/a$1.5468
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$15.93$22.75$29.5867
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleVicky A BaileyDirector1,800 shares at $57.74$103,932Nov 14, 2025
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 20%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (87 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The proposed Blackstone merger brings commitments for grid investments as the main strength, while negative free cash flow combined with high leverage forms the central weakness for this regulated utility.
Main risk: Regulatory uncertainty over acceptance of the revised Blackstone merger filing risks blocking or delaying capital inflows needed for grid reliability upgrades.
TXNM Energy's proposed Blackstone merger now includes an enhanced package of rate credits and commitments to back a multi-billion grid investment plan. Regulators in New Mexico remain split on whether to accept a revised filing or demand a new application altogether. Will the transaction mainly deliver capital for reliability upgrades or merely hand control of a steady regulated utility to new owners?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−64.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets3.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)37.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.50× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)29.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.90× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.79× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA11.5× · Pricier than median
PEG2.55× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)67· sector 24
PAST (return on equity)25· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)25· sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)58· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TXNM Energy, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TXNM
Frequently asked questions
Is TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.71 versus a price of $58.22, about 64% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TXNM?
Our model-based fair value for TXNM Energy, Inc. is $20.71 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $58.22.
What is the quality score of TXNM?
TXNM Energy, Inc. has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.71 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.54, optimistic scenario $25.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TXNM Energy, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.71, about 64% lower versus a price of $58.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.54, optimistic scenario $25.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
TXNM Energy, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does TXNM Energy, Inc. pay a dividend?
TXNM Energy, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 2.90% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) and when is the ex-dividend date?
TXNM Energy, Inc. pays a dividend of $1.69 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 23, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 1996. The payout ratio is 84.5% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TXNM Energy, Inc. it is $20.71 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $58.22. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is TXNM Energy, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, TXNM trades above its calculated fair value: price $58.22, fair value $20.71, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TXNM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($58.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.71). For TXNM Energy, Inc. the two are $37.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TXNM Energy, Inc. worth?
The market values TXNM Energy, Inc. at about $6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $58.22; our models calculate a fair value of $20.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TXNM?
Our models span a range for TXNM Energy, Inc.: cautious scenario $13.54, base $20.71, optimistic $25.14 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $58.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TXNM?
TXNM Energy, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.1 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.71 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings: 24.7. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 1.9, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 11.5.
What is the PEG ratio of TXNM?
The PEG ratio of TXNM Energy, Inc. is 2.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
Balance-sheet figures for TXNM Energy, Inc. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 6.3%, debt of 1.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TXNM from its 52-week high?
TXNM Energy, Inc. trades at $58.22, about 1% below its 52-week high of $59.05 and 4% above the low of $55.85 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TXNM Energy, Inc.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TXNM Energy, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $58.22, calculated fair value $20.71 (−64%), Quality Score 37/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TXNM calculated?
We run TXNM Energy, Inc. through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $20.71 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. TXNM Energy, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $58.22. Our model-based fair value is $20.71, about 64% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TXNM Energy, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($25.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($13.54 to $25.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of TXNM Energy, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
The market capitalisation of TXNM Energy, Inc. is $6.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TXNM Energy, Inc. is 2.79 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
Earnings per share at TXNM Energy, Inc. are $2.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
The dividend yield of TXNM Energy, Inc. is 2.9% (payout 84.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
The net margin of TXNM Energy, Inc. is 9.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TXNM Energy, Inc. is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TXNM Energy, Inc. is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
The operating margin of TXNM Energy, Inc. is 37.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
Revenue at TXNM Energy, Inc. is growing +13.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
Earnings per share at TXNM Energy, Inc. are growing +23.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) generate?
The free cash flow of TXNM Energy, Inc. is −$611M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) carry?
The net debt of TXNM Energy, Inc. is $982K (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026