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TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of TXNM Energy, Inc. $24.23, price $58.32, upside -58.5%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Utilities · US · ISIN US69349H1077

TE TXNM Energy, Inc. logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

TXNM Energy, Inc.

TXNM · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $24.23 · Strongly overvalued (−58%)
!Quality 42/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.7% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·2.85% dividend yield
!Trails peers (0/14)
!Narrow moat 41/100
!Insider activity 30/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 23 out of 100
!Weak on past: 22 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$59.48 $32.27 Fair Value $24.23 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $32.27 – $59.48 · fair‑value band $15.84 – $29.42 · the $58.32 price screens above the $24.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

TXNM Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides electricity and electric services in the United States. The company engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity for retail electric customers; and owns and leases communications, office and other equipment, office space, vehicles, energy storage facilities, and real estate.

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TXNM Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides electricity and electric services in the United States. The company engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity for retail electric customers; and owns and leases communications, office and other equipment, office space, vehicles, energy storage facilities, and real estate. It also provides regulated transmission and distribution services in Texas, as well as owns and leases vehicles, service facilities, and office locations throughout its service territory. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers and end-users of electricity in New Mexico and Texas. The company was formerly known as PNM Resources, Inc and changed its name to TXNM Energy, Inc. in August 2024. TXNM Energy, Inc. was founded in 1882 and is based in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Stock analysis

TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) currently trades at $58.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.23, implying the stock looks roughly 140.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $23.31 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $58.32 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $9.79, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $15.84 (bear) to $29.42 (bull), the price of $58.32 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

TXNM Energy, Inc. reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $151M in FY2025, compounding −6.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $6.3B · P/E ratio 41.4 · P/S ratio 2.89 · EPS (TTM) $1.41 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 5.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −58%, TXNM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $15.84 Fair Value $24.23 Bull $29.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $23.11 $23.31 $21.58 76
Gordon GGM $12.96 $25.83 $39.11 67
DDM Multi-Stage $12.96 $21.57 $27.26 67
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $9.30 $30.51 $40.78 64
Lynch FV $6.85 $9.79 $12.73 61
PEG = 1.0 $6.85 $9.79 $12.73 57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $12.96 $25.83 $39.11 67
DDM Multi-Stage $12.96 $21.57 $27.26 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $18.46 $24.61 $30.76 63
P/S Multiple $17.43 $23.24 $29.05 58
P/B Multiple $17.43 $23.24 $29.05 55
EV/EBIT n/a $13.58 $28.52 61
EV/EBITDA $16.44 $37.32 $58.19 63
EV/Revenue n/a $2.71 $17.38 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $15.37 $20.60 $30.75 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $23.11 $23.31 $21.58 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $15.84 $22.63 $29.42 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 41
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 55
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 54
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 20%

TXNM screens 141% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (85 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 157 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside −59% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.50× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 41.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.85× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.88× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 13.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG 2.80× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 9
FUTURE (revenue growth)23 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)22 · sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)25 · sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)57 · sector 69

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NextEra Energy, Inc NEE $79.26 $29.88 −62%
The Southern Company SO $85.15 $58.74 −31%
Duke Energy Corporation DUK $116.31 $74.89 −36%
American Electric Power Company AEP $120.27 $100.09 −17%
Dominion Energy, Inc D $62.43 $37.67 −40%
Entergy Corporation ETR $101.16 $38.37 −62%
Xcel Energy Inc XEL $72.06 $54.92 −24%
Exelon Corporation EXC $41.80 $36.26 −13%
Consolidated Edison, Inc ED $103.84 $47.92 −54%
Public Service Enterprise Group PEG $69.12 $33.43 −52%

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TXNM Energy, Inc. · Fair Value
$24.23 −141%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TXNM Energy, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TXNM

Frequently asked questions

Is TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.23 versus a price of $58.32, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TXNM?
Our model-based fair value for TXNM Energy, Inc. is $24.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $58.32.
What is the quality score of TXNM?
TXNM Energy, Inc. has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.84, optimistic scenario $29.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TXNM Energy, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.23, about −58% upside versus a price of $58.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.84, optimistic scenario $29.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
TXNM Energy, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does TXNM Energy, Inc. pay a dividend?
TXNM Energy, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.85% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TXNM Energy, Inc. it is $24.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $58.32. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TXNM Energy, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TXNM trades above its calculated fair value: price $58.32, fair value $24.23, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TXNM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($58.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($24.23). For TXNM Energy, Inc. the two are $34.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TXNM Energy, Inc. worth?
The market values TXNM Energy, Inc. at about $6.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $58.32; our models calculate a fair value of $24.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TXNM?
Our models span a range for TXNM Energy, Inc.: cautious scenario $15.84, base $24.23, optimistic $29.42 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $58.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TXNM?
TXNM Energy, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $24.23 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 1.9, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 13.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TXNM?
The PEG ratio of TXNM Energy, Inc. is 2.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
Balance-sheet figures for TXNM Energy, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.4%, debt of 1.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TXNM from its 52-week high?
TXNM Energy, Inc. trades at $58.32, about 2% below its 52-week high of $59.48 and 5% above the low of $55.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $24.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TXNM Energy, Inc.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TXNM Energy, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $58.32, calculated fair value $24.23 (−58%), Quality Score 42/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TXNM calculated?
We run TXNM Energy, Inc. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $24.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. TXNM Energy, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $58.32. Our model-based fair value is $24.23, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TXNM Energy, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($29.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($15.84 to $29.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of TXNM Energy, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
The market capitalisation of TXNM Energy, Inc. is $6.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TXNM Energy, Inc. is 2.89 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
Earnings per share at TXNM Energy, Inc. are $1.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
The dividend yield of TXNM Energy, Inc. is 2.8% (payout 118%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
The net margin of TXNM Energy, Inc. is 7.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TXNM Energy, Inc. is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TXNM Energy, Inc. is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
The operating margin of TXNM Energy, Inc. is 15.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
Revenue at TXNM Energy, Inc. is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM)?
Earnings per share at TXNM Energy, Inc. are growing −68.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) generate?
The free cash flow of TXNM Energy, Inc. is −$611M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) carry?
The net debt of TXNM Energy, Inc. is $982K (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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