TXNM Energy, Inc (TXNM) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $6.3B
TXNM Energy, Inc
TXNM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $32.20 to $24.61 (−23.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +2.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 57% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $32.27 – $59.48 · fair‑value band $18.46 – $30.76 · the $57.60 price screens above the $24.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
TXNM Energy, Inc (TXNM) currently trades at $57.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.61, implying the stock looks roughly 57.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, TXNM Energy, Inc generated revenue of $2.2B at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.4%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 41.9. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.46 (bear case) to $30.76 (bull case); at $57.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -57%, TXNM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($23.31) versus Earnings-Based ($9.79). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TXNM Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides electricity and electric services in the United States. The company engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity for retail electric customers; and owns and leases communications, office and other equipment, office space, vehicles, energy storage facilities, and real estate.
Full company description
TXNM Energy, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides electricity and electric services in the United States. The company engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity for retail electric customers; and owns and leases communications, office and other equipment, office space, vehicles, energy storage facilities, and real estate. It also provides regulated transmission and distribution services in Texas, as well as owns and leases vehicles, service facilities, and office locations throughout its service territory. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers and end-users of electricity in New Mexico and Texas. The company was formerly known as PNM Resources, Inc and changed its name to TXNM Energy, Inc. in August 2024. TXNM Energy, Inc. was founded in 1882 and is based in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TXNM Energy, Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $151M in FY2025, compounding −6.3%/yr from FY2021.
TXNM screens 57% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- TXNM Energy Inc's Dividend Analysis
- TXNM Energy Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
- TXNM Energy declares $0.4225 dividend
- TXNM Energy Board Declares Quarterly Common Stock Dividend
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 154 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $88.80 | $32.94 | -63% |
| The Southern Company SO | $95.61 | $61.06 | -36% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $126.11 | $97.11 | -23% |
| National Grid plc NGG | 61,175 ARS | 44,377 ARS | -27% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $132.50 | $79.33 | -40% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $70.08 | $46.92 | -33% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹341.85 | ₹377.16 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 232.40 PLN | 159.33 PLN | -31% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹283.55 | ₹252.77 | -11% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.91 | ¥7.69 | -14% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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