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Data-driven stock valuation

Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam stock VND 30,310, price VND 53,600, that is 43.5% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services VN · ISIN VN000000VCB4

JS Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam logo Some data Nov 7, 2026

Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam

VCB · VN
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 43% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 62/100
Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +8.6 %/yr in VND)
Highly profitable · 50.7% net margin (TTM)
0.8% dividend yield · Low payout
Ranks above peers (8/12)
Wide moat 73/100 · thin data
Some data
Fair value 30,310 VND · Strongly overvalued
⚠ Small free float

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Central bank rate cut directives pressuring bank margins
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

75,372 VND 34,573 VND Fair Value 30,310 VND Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 34,573 VND – 75,372 VND · fair‑value band 25,507 VND – 39,625 VND · the 53,600 VND price screens above the 30,310 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in Vietnam.

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The company accepts short, medium, and long-term deposits from organizations and individuals; sale of gold bars; and engages in financial and office leasing, and money remittance activities.

It also provides account services; digital banking services; payment, corporate, and credit cards; consumer, home, auto, and business loans; and investment and savings insurance.

In addition, the company offers money payment and cash flow management services, such as business accounts, cash flow management, trade finance, fund transfer, and corporate cards; SME loans, such as credit by industry, short, medium, and long-term loans; guarantee services; foreign exchange and capital market services, such as forex trading, interest rate derivatives, and commodity derivatives; digital banking; supply chain solutions; and consulting and investment services.

The company was formerly known as Bank for Foreign trade of Vietnam. Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Stock analysis

Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB) currently trades at 53,600 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 30,310 VND, 43% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 45,959 VND per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the 53,600 VND price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 5,167 VND, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: 25,507 VND (bear) to 39,625 VND (bull), the price of 53,600 VND sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam reported revenue of 69.1T VND in FY2025 versus 54.8T VND in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was 35.2T VND in FY2025, compounding +12.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 448T VND (≈ $17.5B) Large · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 5.45 · EPS (TTM) 4,931 VND · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 50.7% · Return on equity 17.5% · Return on assets 1.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −43%, VCB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 25,507 VND Fair Value 30,310 VND Bull 39,625 VND
Price 53,600 VND · Downside -43.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (3,843 VND per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income 25,507 VND 30,310 VND 39,625 VND 76
Gordon GGM 3,407 VND 5,531 VND 7,681 VND 68
DDM Multi-Stage 3,407 VND 4,804 VND 6,094 VND 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 3,407 VND 5,531 VND 7,681 VND 68
DDM Multi-Stage 3,407 VND 4,804 VND 6,094 VND 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 41,048 VND 54,730 VND 68,413 VND 63
P/B Multiple 27,890 VND 37,187 VND 46,483 VND 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 13,281 VND 17,796 VND 26,562 VND 51
Economic Profit
Residual Income 25,507 VND 30,310 VND 39,625 VND 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 47
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 78
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 52
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 86
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 31
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 12
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 40
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Per share before 2025divided by the spin-off factor 1.495
2025 sits 55% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

VCB screens overvalued: fair value 43% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Note from the team Nov 3, 2026
AI conclusion: High reported margins form the main strength, while thin public evidence for a durable moat and unclear sustainability of those margins represent the key weakness.
Main risk: Central bank directives forcing lending rate cuts threaten to compress net interest margins for Vietnamese banks including this one.
Vietcombank delivered another round of strong nine-month earnings with net income rising sharply year over year. Capital-raising plans now on the table could expand the share count just as the stock sits far from its recent high. Do the profit gains justify holding through potential dilution or does the overvaluation in our models reflect risks ahead?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −43.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 17.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 50.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 58.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 11.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.8% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 10.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.00× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 5.45× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 3.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)57 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)70 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)17 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs VCB
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs VCB
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs VCB
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs VCB
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs VCB
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs VCB
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.89 −37% vs VCB
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs VCB
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs VCB
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs VCB

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Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VCB

Frequently asked questions

Is Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 30,310 VND versus a price of 53,600 VND, about 43% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VCB?
Our model-based fair value for Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 30,310 VND (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 53,600 VND.
What is the quality score of VCB?
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 30,310 VND (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 25,507 VND, optimistic scenario 39,625 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 30,310 VND, about 43% lower versus a price of 53,600 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 25,507 VND, optimistic scenario 39,625 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 82.2T VND (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam pay a dividend?
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam currently shows a dividend yield of 0.84% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam pays a dividend of 450.00 VND per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 23, 2026. The payout ratio is 9.1% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam it is 30,310 VND per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 53,600 VND. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, VCB trades above its calculated fair value: price 53,600 VND, fair value 30,310 VND, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VCB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (53,600 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (30,310 VND). For Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam the two are 23,290 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam worth?
The market values Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam at about 448T VND (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 53,600 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 30,310 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VCB?
Our models span a range for Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam: cautious scenario 25,507 VND, base 30,310 VND, optimistic 39,625 VND per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 53,600 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VCB?
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 30,310 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 5.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 17.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VCB from its 52-week high?
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam trades at 53,600 VND, about 29% below its 52-week high of 75,372 VND and at the low of 53,500 VND (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 30,310 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 53,600 VND, calculated fair value 30,310 VND (−43%), Quality Score 62/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VCB calculated?
We run Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 30,310 VND builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 53,600 VND. Our model-based fair value is 30,310 VND, about 43% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (39,625 VND). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam

How large is the market capitalisation of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The market capitalisation of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 448T VND (≈ $17.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 5.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
Earnings per share at Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam are 4,931 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The dividend yield of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 0.8% (payout 9.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The net margin of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 50.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 17.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
The operating margin of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 58.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
Revenue at Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is growing +11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB)?
Earnings per share at Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam are growing +0.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCB) generate?
The free cash flow of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam is 115T VND (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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