Ventas Inc (VTR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ventas Inc stock $33.27, price $88.75, that is 62.5% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.68 – $99.93 · fair‑value band $16.42 – $55.04 · the $88.75 price screens above the $33.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Ventas, Inc. is a leading S&P 500 real estate investment trust enabling exceptional environments that benefit a large and growing aging population. With approximately 1,400 properties in North America and the United Kingdom, Ventas occupies an essential role in the longevity economy.
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The Company's growth is fueled by its more than 850 senior housing communities, which provide valuable services to residents and enable them to thrive in supported environments.
Ventas aims to deliver outsized performance by leveraging its operational expertise, data-driven insights from its Ventas OI platform, extensive relationships and strong financial position. The Ventas portfolio also includes outpatient medical buildings, research centers and healthcare facilities.
Ventas's seasoned team of talented professionals shares a commitment to excellence, integrity and a common purpose of helping people live longer, healthier, happier lives. Ventas, Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Chicago, United States.
Stock analysis
Ventas Inc (VTR) currently trades at $88.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.27, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $57.73 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $88.75 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.53, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $16.42 (bear) to $55.04 (bull), the price of $88.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ventas Inc reported revenue of $5.8B in FY2025 versus $3.8B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $251M in FY2025, compounding +50.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $43.7B Large · P/E ratio 170.7 · P/S ratio 6.48 · EPS (TTM) $0.5200 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity 1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −63%, VTR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$16.42Fair Value $33.27Bull$55.04
Price $88.75 · Downside -62.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $197,025, on Jun 3, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $103,910.
BuyMichael J EmblerDirector2,500 shares at $78.81$197,025Jun 3, 2026
SaleWalter C RakowichDirector1,152 shares at $90.20$103,910May 14, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleCarey S. RobertsEVP and GC35,532 shares at $85.00$3.0MFeb 11, 2026
SaleDebra A CafaroChairman and CEO, Director5× since Nov 17, 2025: 82,582 shares, avg. $79.22$6.5MFeb 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRobert F ProbstEVP and CFO2× since Nov 12, 2025: 63,521 shares, avg. $77.00$4.9MJan 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePeter J. BulgarelliEVP OM&R-Ventas/Pres&CEO-LHS5,000 shares at $80.04$400,206Nov 19, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 41 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−11.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.2% vs −10.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.6% a year for the price and +11.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Demographic tailwinds support senior housing demand while dependence on capital raises and tenant concentration limit business durability.
Main risk: A significant portion of revenues depends on a limited number of operators and tenants such as Atria, Sunrise, Kindred and Ardent, so their financial or operational problems could reduce rental income and margins.
Bull case: Ventas could diversify its operator base further and use its data platform to improve performance across more partners, strengthening resilience against any single operator issue.
Bear case: If key operators face sustained difficulties or major reimbursement cuts occur, occupancy and rental collections could decline sharply, pressuring cash flows and limiting growth.
Ventas focuses on senior housing where demographic shifts support demand and recent portfolio performance has been robust. Yet scaling investments in this area depends on ongoing capital raises that could affect returns over time. Our models see it as overvalued. Will the operational strengths from an aging population outweigh the risks of tenant concentration and funding pressures?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Healthcare Facilities · 25 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ventas Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VTR
Frequently asked questions
Is Ventas Inc (VTR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.27 versus a price of $88.75, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VTR?
Our model-based fair value for Ventas Inc is $33.27 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $88.75.
What is the quality score of VTR?
Ventas Inc has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ventas Inc (VTR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.27 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.42, optimistic scenario $55.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ventas Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $33.27, about 63% lower versus a price of $88.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $16.42, optimistic scenario $55.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ventas Inc (VTR)?
Ventas Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Ventas Inc pay a dividend?
Ventas Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.30% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ventas Inc (VTR) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ventas Inc pays a dividend of $2.04 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1999. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.22 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Ventas Inc (VTR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ventas Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +20.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.0 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VTR use?
Our models discount Ventas Inc at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ventas Inc that is +20.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ventas Inc (VTR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ventas Inc grew +9.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +20.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ventas Inc (VTR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ventas Inc (+20.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ventas Inc (VTR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.01 %: that much free cash flow Ventas Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ventas Inc (VTR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ventas Inc it is $33.27 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $88.75. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Ventas Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, VTR trades above its calculated fair value: price $88.75, fair value $33.27, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VTR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($88.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.27). For Ventas Inc the two are $55.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ventas Inc worth?
The market values Ventas Inc at about $43.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $88.75; our models calculate a fair value of $33.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VTR?
Our models span a range for Ventas Inc: cautious scenario $16.42, base $33.27, optimistic $55.04 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $88.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VTR?
Ventas Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 170.7 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $33.27 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 196.7 (reported for FY2025: 169.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 48.6. Other multiples: PEG 4.8, P/B 3.5, P/S 6.5, EV/EBITDA 22.9.
What is the PEG ratio of VTR?
The PEG ratio of Ventas Inc is 4.77 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ventas Inc (VTR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ventas Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 1.9%, debt of 1.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VTR from its 52-week high?
Ventas Inc trades at $88.75, about 11% below its 52-week high of $99.93 and 21% above the low of $73.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $33.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ventas Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Welltower Inc, Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc, Healthpeak Properties, Inc, American Healthcare REIT, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ventas Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $88.75, calculated fair value $33.27 (−63%), Quality Score 43/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VTR calculated?
We run Ventas Inc through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $33.27 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Ventas Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ventas Inc (VTR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $88.75. Our model-based fair value is $33.27, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ventas Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($55.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($16.42 to $55.04). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Ventas Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Ventas Inc (VTR)?
The market capitalisation of Ventas Inc is $43.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ventas Inc (VTR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ventas Inc is 6.48 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ventas Inc (VTR)?
Earnings per share at Ventas Inc are $0.5200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 170.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ventas Inc (VTR)?
The dividend yield of Ventas Inc is 2.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ventas Inc (VTR)?
The net margin of Ventas Inc is 3.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ventas Inc (VTR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ventas Inc is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ventas Inc (VTR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ventas Inc is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ventas Inc (VTR)?
The operating margin of Ventas Inc is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ventas Inc (VTR)?
Revenue at Ventas Inc is growing +21.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ventas Inc (VTR)?
Earnings per share at Ventas Inc are growing −9.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ventas Inc (VTR) carry?
The net debt of Ventas Inc is $12.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026