Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Whitecap Resources Inc. stock C$15.61, price C$16.70, that is 6.5% below the price, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$3.64 – C$20.53 · fair‑value band C$6.61 – C$30.37 · the C$16.70 price screens above the C$15.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Whitecap Resources Inc. engages in the acquisition, development, and holding of interests in petroleum and natural gas properties and assets in Western Canada.
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Its primary areas of focus are development programs located in Northern Alberta, British Columbia, Central Alberta, and Western and Eastern Saskatchewan. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP) currently trades at C$16.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$15.61, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$33.20 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$16.70 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$5.75, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$6.61 (bear) to C$30.37 (bull), the price of C$16.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Whitecap Resources Inc. reported revenue of C$5.2B in FY2025 versus C$2.3B in FY2021, a compound +22.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$985M in FY2025, compounding −13.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$20.3B (≈ $14.5B) Large · P/E ratio 13.1 · P/S ratio 2.60 · EPS (TTM) C$1.27 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 19.7% · Return on equity 13.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −7%, WCP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$6.61Fair Value C$15.61BullC$30.37
Price C$16.70 · Downside -6.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.4569 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPVC$4.56C$5.75C$6.8174
Residual IncomeC$7.88C$8.62C$10.2674
FCF DCFC$7.93C$14.07C$33.9871
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFC$7.93C$14.07C$33.9871
Owner EarningsC$4.63C$13.80C$33.6466
5Y Revenue ExitC$3.34C$6.82C$14.0765
5Y EBITDA ExitC$8.77C$17.82C$35.5868
5Y P/E ExitC$6.92C$18.16C$33.4564
10Y Revenue ExitC$4.58C$11.34C$15.1764
10Y EBITDA ExitC$8.78C$23.24C$48.7261
10Y P/E ExitC$7.40C$19.19C$38.5057
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddC$5.50C$38.38C$53.8661
Lynch FVC$19.83C$28.33C$36.8259
PEG = 1.0C$19.83C$28.33C$36.8255
EPVC$4.56C$5.75C$6.8174
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMC$5.73C$12.32C$20.3463
DDM Multi-StageC$5.73C$10.19C$12.8764
Multiples
P/E MultipleC$8.50C$11.33C$14.1663
P/S MultipleC$3.82C$5.10C$6.3758
P/B MultipleC$7.14C$9.51C$11.8955
EV/EBITC$3.76C$6.21C$8.6664
EV/EBITDAC$7.34C$10.98C$14.6166
EV/Revenuen/aC$1.53C$3.0650
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)C$4.34C$5.82C$8.6854
Growth DCF
Growth DCFC$7.33C$17.47C$34.3671
Rev-Margin DCFC$3.89C$8.15C$17.1265
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeC$7.88C$8.62C$10.2674
ROIC CompounderC$4.56C$5.75C$6.8170
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EC$23.24C$33.20C$43.1665
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+54.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.4% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+61.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−19.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19.6% vs −2.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.48% → 23%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
The revenue jump in 2026 (+73.6%) comes with 22% more shares (acquisition or merger paid in stock). Per share it is about +42.3%. The comparison above is unreliable in such a year.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.1% a year for the price and +7.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Production outperformance from improved capital efficiency after the recent combination generates stronger free cash flow with declining costs, yet the business lacks a durable moat as a typical commodity E&P producer with limited distinguishing signals.
Main risk: Stricter federal emissions caps or higher carbon costs in Canada could raise compliance and operating expenses or constrain development plans for Whitecap's assets in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Bull case: Whitecap could leverage its Weyburn CCUS project, operational efficiencies and infrastructure partnerships to lower emissions intensity and maintain or expand output despite tighter Canadian carbon rules.
Bear case: Tighter emissions rules combined with US trade barriers could raise costs, limit new drilling and reduce export volumes, pressuring margins and forcing slower growth or asset sales.
Whitecap continues to deliver production outperformance through better capital efficiency after its recent combination. These execution gains help generate more free cash flow even as operating costs trend lower. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the efficiency improvements hold up against typical energy sector volatility or will margins come under renewed pressure?
Compare Whitecap Resources Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 236 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Below median
Fair Value upside−6.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.7% · Above median
Return on assets5.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)19.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)21.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)38.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Whitecap Resources Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WCP
Frequently asked questions
Is Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$15.61 versus a price of C$16.70, about 7% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of WCP?
Our model-based fair value for Whitecap Resources Inc. is C$15.61 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$16.70.
What is the quality score of WCP?
Whitecap Resources Inc. has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$15.61 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$6.61, optimistic scenario C$30.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Whitecap Resources Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$15.61, about 7% lower versus a price of C$16.70 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario C$6.61, optimistic scenario C$30.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
Whitecap Resources Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$7.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Whitecap Resources Inc. pay a dividend?
Whitecap Resources Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 4.38% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Whitecap Resources Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +18.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +44.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WCP use?
Our models discount Whitecap Resources Inc. at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Whitecap Resources Inc. that is +18.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Whitecap Resources Inc. grew +44.8 % a year. The price currently implies +18.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Whitecap Resources Inc. (+18.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.99 %: that much free cash flow Whitecap Resources Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Whitecap Resources Inc. it is C$15.61 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of C$16.70. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Whitecap Resources Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, WCP trades above its calculated fair value: price C$16.70, fair value C$15.61, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WCP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$16.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$15.61). For Whitecap Resources Inc. the two are C$1.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Whitecap Resources Inc. worth?
The market values Whitecap Resources Inc. at about C$20.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is C$16.70; our models calculate a fair value of C$15.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WCP?
Our models span a range for Whitecap Resources Inc.: cautious scenario C$6.61, base C$15.61, optimistic C$30.37 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price C$16.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WCP?
Whitecap Resources Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$15.61 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 7.5. Other multiples: PEG 6.2, P/B 1.9, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 5.2.
What is the PEG ratio of WCP?
The PEG ratio of Whitecap Resources Inc. is 6.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Whitecap Resources Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 13.7%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WCP from its 52-week high?
Whitecap Resources Inc. trades at C$16.70, about 19% below its 52-week high of C$20.53 and 66% above the low of C$10.07 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$15.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Whitecap Resources Inc.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Whitecap Resources Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price C$16.70, calculated fair value C$15.61 (−7%), Quality Score 35/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WCP calculated?
We run Whitecap Resources Inc. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$15.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Whitecap Resources Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was C$16.70. Our model-based fair value is C$15.61, about 7% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Whitecap Resources Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$6.61 to C$30.37). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP) come from?
Earnings per share at Whitecap Resources Inc. grew +1.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.5 %, EBIT margin −5.1 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Whitecap Resources Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
The market capitalisation of Whitecap Resources Inc. is C$20.3B (≈ $14.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Whitecap Resources Inc. is 2.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
Earnings per share at Whitecap Resources Inc. are C$1.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
The dividend yield of Whitecap Resources Inc. is 4.4% (payout 57.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
The net margin of Whitecap Resources Inc. is 19.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Whitecap Resources Inc. is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Whitecap Resources Inc. is 18.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
The operating margin of Whitecap Resources Inc. is 21.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
Revenue at Whitecap Resources Inc. is growing +38.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP)?
Earnings per share at Whitecap Resources Inc. are growing +60.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP) carry?
The net debt of Whitecap Resources Inc. is C$4.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026