Welltower Inc (WELL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Welltower Inc stock $74.12, price $245, that is 69.8% below the price, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $52.39 – $251.12 · fair‑value band $41.16 – $130.56 · the $245.43 price screens above the $74.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Welltower Inc. is a S&P 500 company, is positioned at the center of the silver economy, focusing on rental housing for aging seniors across the United States, United Kingdom and Canada.
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Our portfolio of 2,000+ seniors and wellness housing communities are positioned at the intersection of housing and hospitality, creating vibrant communities for mature renters and older adults.
We believe our real estate portfolio is unmatched, located in highly attractive micro markets with stunning built environments.
Yet, we are an unusual real estate organization as we view ourselves as an operating company in a real estate wrapper, driven by highly aligned partnerships and an unconventional culture.
Through our disciplined approach to capital allocation powered by our Data Science platform and superior operating results driven by the Welltower Business System - our end-to-end operating platform - we aspire to deliver long-term compounding of per share growth for our existing investors, our North Star.
Welltower Inc. was incorporated in 1970 in Delaware and is based in Toledo, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Welltower Inc (WELL) currently trades at $245.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $74.12, 70% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $74.12 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $245.43 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $14.38, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $41.16 (bear) to $130.56 (bull), the price of $245.43 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Welltower Inc reported revenue of $10.7B in FY2025 versus $4.7B in FY2021, a compound +22.7%/yr. Reported net income was $937M in FY2025, compounding +29.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $180B Large · P/E ratio 108.6 · P/S ratio 14.1 · EPS (TTM) $2.26 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 12.2% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −70%, WELL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($13.70 to $128.91). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$41.16Fair Value $74.12Bull$130.56
Price $245.43 · Downside -69.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $2.4M, on Aug 26, 2026.
BuyAndrew GundlachDirector10,000 shares at $240.77$2.4MAug 26, 2026
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+35.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−7.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10.1% vs −5.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 3%
2025 sits 110% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+21.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.6% a year for the price and +19.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The hands-on seniors housing model drives strong occupancy-led NOI growth amid aging demographics, yet common lease structures across peers limit durable differentiation.
Main risk: The UK Competition and Markets Authority investigated Welltower's large UK care home acquisitions and required remedies such as targeted divestitures, which could constrain its ownership expansion and operational influence in local senior housing markets.
Bull case: Welltower could use its proprietary data science platform and aligned operator partnerships to improve occupancy and efficiency, helping it meet regulatory requirements while expanding its operating model advantages.
Bear case: If regulatory remedies force divestitures and tenant issues coincide with higher refinancing costs, Welltower could face constrained UK growth, reduced income stability and slower portfolio expansion in its core senior housing segment.
Welltower’s seniors housing operating portfolio shows strong same-store NOI growth from higher occupancy and revenue per occupied room, reflecting the benefits of its hands-on model amid aging demographics. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the operating leverage and supply constraints deliver sustained outperformance, or will the pace of investments and execution challenges limit the upside?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Healthcare Facilities · 25 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Welltower Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WELL
Frequently asked questions
Is Welltower Inc (WELL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $74.12 versus a price of $245.43, about 70% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WELL?
Our model-based fair value for Welltower Inc is $74.12 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $245.43.
What is the quality score of WELL?
Welltower Inc has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Welltower Inc (WELL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $74.12 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $41.16, optimistic scenario $130.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Welltower Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $74.12, about 70% lower versus a price of $245.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $41.16, optimistic scenario $130.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Welltower Inc (WELL)?
Welltower Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Welltower Inc pay a dividend?
Welltower Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.25% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Welltower Inc (WELL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Welltower Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +29.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WELL use?
Our models discount Welltower Inc at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Welltower Inc that is +29.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Welltower Inc (WELL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Welltower Inc grew +18.4 % a year. The price currently implies +29.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Welltower Inc (WELL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Welltower Inc (+29.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Welltower Inc (WELL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.58 %: that much free cash flow Welltower Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Welltower Inc (WELL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Welltower Inc it is $74.12 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $245.43. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Welltower Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, WELL trades above its calculated fair value: price $245.43, fair value $74.12, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WELL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($245.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($74.12). For Welltower Inc the two are $171.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Welltower Inc worth?
The market values Welltower Inc at about $180B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $245.43; our models calculate a fair value of $74.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WELL?
Our models span a range for Welltower Inc: cautious scenario $41.16, base $74.12, optimistic $130.56 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $245.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WELL?
Welltower Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 108.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $74.12 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 176.6 (reported for FY2025: 186.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 62.8. Other multiples: PEG 3.6, P/B 4.3, P/S 14.1, EV/EBITDA 58.0.
What is the PEG ratio of WELL?
The PEG ratio of Welltower Inc is 3.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Welltower Inc (WELL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Welltower Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 3.8%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WELL from its 52-week high?
Welltower Inc trades at $245.43, about 2% below its 52-week high of $251.12 and 36% above the low of $180.02 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $74.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Welltower Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Ventas, Inc, Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc, Healthpeak Properties, Inc, American Healthcare REIT, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Welltower Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $245.43, calculated fair value $74.12 (−70%), Quality Score 42/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WELL calculated?
We run Welltower Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $74.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Welltower Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Welltower Inc (WELL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $245.43. Our model-based fair value is $74.12, about 70% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Welltower Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($130.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($41.16 to $130.56). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Welltower Inc (WELL) come from?
Earnings per share at Welltower Inc grew −7.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.3 %, EBIT margin −11.9 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Welltower Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Welltower Inc (WELL)?
The market capitalisation of Welltower Inc is $180B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Welltower Inc (WELL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Welltower Inc is 14.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Welltower Inc (WELL)?
Earnings per share at Welltower Inc are $2.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 108.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Welltower Inc (WELL)?
The dividend yield of Welltower Inc is 1.3% (payout 129%, on adjusted earnings, reported 136%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Welltower Inc (WELL)?
The net margin of Welltower Inc is 12.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Welltower Inc (WELL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Welltower Inc is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Welltower Inc (WELL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Welltower Inc is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Welltower Inc (WELL)?
The operating margin of Welltower Inc is 16.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Welltower Inc (WELL)?
Revenue at Welltower Inc is growing +39.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Welltower Inc (WELL)?
Earnings per share at Welltower Inc are growing +35.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Welltower Inc (WELL) carry?
The net debt of Welltower Inc is $16.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026