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Xp Inc (XP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Xp Inc stock $16.60, price $15.14, upside +9.6%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US · ISIN KYG982391099

XI Xp Inc logo Broad data Nov 8, 2026

Xp Inc

XP · US
Fairly valued, in an uptrend

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Highly profitable · 28.5% net margin (TTM)
0.7% dividend yield · Low payout
Wide moat 73/100
Positive coverage
Broad data
Fair value $16.60 · Fairly valued (+9.6%)
Quality 58/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +16.2 %/yr in BRL)
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Insiders sold $2.4M (6M)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Digital banks and incumbents eroding retail brokerage share🚩Lawsuits over COE distribution and conflicts
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$45.03 $9.37 Fair Value $16.60 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $9.37 – $45.03 · fair‑value band $11.47 – $20.75 · the $15.14 price screens below the $16.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

XP Inc. engages in the provision of financial products and services in Brazil.

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It operates XP Platform, an open product platform that provides clients to access investment products in the market comprising brokerage securities, fixed income securities, mutual, hedge, and private equity funds; derivatives and synthetic instruments; credit cards; loan operations/collateralized credit products; pension and social security funds, and life and travel insurance products; and other investment products comprising real estate funds, and equity and debt capital markets solutions, as well as wealth management services.

The company offers brokerage and issuer services to institutional and corporate clients.

It also manages mutual funds focused on stocks and macro strategies distributed to retail and to institutional clients; funds and managed portfolios for high-net-worth retail clients, and proprietary treasury funds; and passive mutual funds that track market indexes, and mutual and investment funds focused on fixed income, credit, real estate, infrastructure, and other alternative strategies.

In addition, the company offers securities brokerage services for institutional and retail investors; interdealer brokerage services for institutional traders; and commercial and investment banking products, such as loan operations and transactions in the foreign exchange markets and deposits, as well as develops and sells financial education courses and events online and in person to retail clients.

It offers its sell products and services through its omni-channel distribution network and online portals. XP Inc. was founded in 2001 and is based in George Town, the Cayman Islands.

Stock analysis

Xp Inc (XP) currently trades at $15.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.60, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.8%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $16.99 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $15.14 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.91, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $11.47 (bear) to $20.75 (bull), the price of $15.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Xp Inc reported revenue of R$18.2B in FY2025 versus R$13.0B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was R$5.1B in FY2025, compounding +8.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $14.9B Large · P/E ratio 15.9 · P/S ratio 4.41 · EPS (TTM) $1.85 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 27.8% · Return on equity 22.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 10%, XP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.47 Fair Value $16.60 Bull $20.75
Price $15.14 · Upside +9.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $11.47 $16.99 $36.05 69
Gordon GGM $1.54 $3.13 $4.82 64
DDM Multi-Stage $1.54 $2.68 $3.30 64
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.54 $3.13 $4.82 64
DDM Multi-Stage $1.54 $2.68 $3.30 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple $17.27 $23.03 $28.79 61
P/B Multiple $7.63 $10.17 $12.71 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.63 $4.87 $7.26 52
Economic Profit
Residual Income $11.47 $16.99 $36.05 69

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 42
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 9
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 48
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 30
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 42
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 11
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 99
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $2.4M and none bought.

  • SaleBruno Constantino Alexandre Dos SantosDirector123,257 shares at $19.58$2.4MSep 16, 2026

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 94/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +39.3% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+69.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+21.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.5% vs 40.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 32%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Diversification into wholesale banking and SMB products strengthens client stickiness and revenue streams, yet the thin evidence of a durable moat in a competitive capital markets sector remains the main weak point.
Main risk: Nubank and large banks such as Itaú could draw away low-retail and SME clients by bundling credit and banking services, reducing demand for XP's standalone investment platform and pressuring brokerage margins.
Bull case: XP could leverage its wholesale banking expansion and AI-enhanced advisory tools to deepen client relationships across segments and retain or regain market share despite rival pressure.
Bear case: If retail clients continue migrating to integrated banking rivals and legal actions restrict product distribution, XP's brokerage franchise could face sustained margin compression and slower asset growth.
XP has expanded its wholesale banking segment with revenues rising 32 percent year over year while launching POS devices and credit cards aimed at small and medium businesses. This move diversifies away from pure brokerage fees toward a fuller banking franchise. Will the added client stickiness and revenue streams strengthen the model more than they compress the high margins of the original business?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside +9.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 22.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 28.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 31.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 10.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.36× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 15.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.48× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 4.39× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 6.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 29.2× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)46 · sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)53 · sector 68
PAST (return on equity)90 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)14 · sector 47

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Morgan Stanley MS $181.44 $260.72 +44% vs XP
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $91.49 $117.60 +29% vs XP
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥16.46 ¥18.02 +9% vs XP
Nomura Holdings NMR $9.42 $10.20 +8% vs XP
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $865.82 $766.86 −11% vs XP
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥25.72 ¥20.42 −21% vs XP
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $80.91 $47.60 −41% vs XP
Macquarie Group MQG A$248.86 A$123.84 −50% vs XP
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.78 ¥6.72 −64% vs XP
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $75.82 $17.48 −77% vs XP

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Xp Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xp Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XP

Frequently asked questions

Is Xp Inc (XP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.60 versus a price of $15.14, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of XP?
Our model-based fair value for Xp Inc is $16.60 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.14.
What is the quality score of XP?
Xp Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xp Inc (XP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.60 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.47, optimistic scenario $20.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xp Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.60, about +10% upside versus a price of $15.14 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $11.47, optimistic scenario $20.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xp Inc (XP)?
Xp Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$18.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Xp Inc pay a dividend?
Xp Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.68% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Xp Inc (XP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Xp Inc has a dividend yield of 0.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 10, 2026. The payout ratio is 9.8% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Xp Inc (XP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xp Inc it is $16.60 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $15.14. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Xp Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, XP trades below its calculated fair value: price $15.14, fair value $16.60, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.60). For Xp Inc the two are $1.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xp Inc worth?
The market values Xp Inc at about $14.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $15.14; our models calculate a fair value of $16.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XP?
Our models span a range for Xp Inc: cautious scenario $11.47, base $16.60, optimistic $20.75 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $15.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XP?
Xp Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.60 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 18.9. Other multiples: P/B 3.5, P/S 4.4, EV/EBITDA 29.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xp Inc (XP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xp Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 22.6%, debt of 1.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XP from its 52-week high?
Xp Inc trades at $15.14, about 54% below its 52-week high of $32.60 and 8% above the low of $14.04 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xp Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xp Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $15.14, calculated fair value $16.60 (+10%), Quality Score 58/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XP calculated?
We run Xp Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $16.60 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Xp Inc currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xp Inc (XP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $15.14. Our model-based fair value is $16.60, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xp Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($11.47 to $20.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Xp Inc (XP) come from?
Earnings per share at Xp Inc grew +47.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +35.1 %, EBIT margin +2.0 %, tax rate +5.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Xp Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Xp Inc (XP)?
The market capitalisation of Xp Inc is $14.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xp Inc (XP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xp Inc is 4.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xp Inc (XP)?
Earnings per share at Xp Inc are $1.85 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Xp Inc (XP)?
The dividend yield of Xp Inc is 0.7% (payout 5.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xp Inc (XP)?
The net margin of Xp Inc is 27.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xp Inc (XP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xp Inc is 22.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xp Inc (XP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xp Inc is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xp Inc (XP)?
The operating margin of Xp Inc is 31.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xp Inc (XP)?
Revenue at Xp Inc is growing +10.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xp Inc (XP)?
Earnings per share at Xp Inc are growing +8.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Xp Inc (XP) generate?
The free cash flow of Xp Inc is R$11.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Xp Inc (XP) carry?
The net debt of Xp Inc is R$74.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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