Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd stock ¥14.72, price ¥27.27, that is 46.0% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.43 – ¥64.27 · fair‑value band ¥9.95 – ¥20.43 · the ¥27.27 price screens above the ¥14.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co., Ltd. provides electronics manufacturing services worldwide. The company offers hard disk components manufacturing services, including magnetic heads, hard disk PCBA, and aluminum substrates, as well as metering systems comprising electric, water, and gas meter systems.
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It also provides research and development, manufacturing, and logistics transportation services for medical devices, such as medical instruments, portable medical diagnostic products, disposable medical consumables, and medical product PCBA, as well as material procurement, manufacturing, testing, assembly, logistics, and after-sales services for smart devices, such as electric scooters, printers, and E-ink tablets.
In addition, the company offers commercial and industrial services for industrial control, IoT intelligent hardware, and new energy products, as well as battery management systems and body electronic control module automotive electronics solutions.
Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021) currently trades at ¥27.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.72, 46% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥18.50 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥27.27 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.03, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥9.95 (bear) to ¥20.43 (bull), the price of ¥27.27 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 15.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 16.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 42.9B CNY (≈ $6.4B) Mid · P/E ratio 35.0 · P/S ratio 3.15 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.7800 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −46%, 000021 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥9.95Fair Value ¥14.72Bull¥20.43
Price ¥27.27 · Downside -46.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.4756 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.2% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+5.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.3% vs 19.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 10%
2025 sits 71% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +36.5% a year for the price.
AI conclusion: The business targets growth through expansion in advanced 2.5D memory packaging for AI servers yet lacks evidence of a durable moat and carries high debt that limits returns.
Main risk: Rising competition in the advanced DRAM packaging sector together with execution risks on new capacity could constrain returns from the investments.
Kaifa Technology is expanding its high-end memory chip packaging and testing lines with a focus on 2.5D solutions for AI servers. This move targets growth in advanced DRAM services, but rising competition in the sector and execution on the new capacity could constrain returns. Will the investments lift profitability enough to offset the added costs, or will they mainly increase exposure to cyclical demand?
Compare Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Computer Hardware · 213 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−46.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.2% · Above median
Return on assets5.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)30.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000021
Frequently asked questions
Is Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥14.72 versus a price of ¥27.27, about 46% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000021?
Our model-based fair value for Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd is ¥14.72 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥27.27.
What is the quality score of 000021?
Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥14.72 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥9.95, optimistic scenario ¥20.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥14.72, about 46% lower versus a price of ¥27.27 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥9.95, optimistic scenario ¥20.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.81% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +38.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.0 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000021 use?
Our models discount Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.18, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd that is +38.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd grew +1.0 % a year. The price currently implies +38.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (+38.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.27 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd it is ¥14.72 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥27.27. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 000021 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥27.27, fair value ¥14.72, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000021?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥27.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥14.72). For Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd the two are ¥12.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd at about 42.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥27.27; our models calculate a fair value of ¥14.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000021?
Our models span a range for Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥9.95, base ¥14.72, optimistic ¥20.43 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥27.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000021?
Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥14.72 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 32.3. Other multiples: P/B 3.3, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 15.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 9.2%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000021 from its 52-week high?
Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd trades at ¥27.27, about 58% below its 52-week high of ¥64.27 and 22% above the low of ¥22.39 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥14.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Dell Technologies Inc, Arista Networks, Inc, Sandisk Corporation, Seagate Technology Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥27.27, calculated fair value ¥14.72 (−46%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000021 calculated?
We run Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥14.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥27.27. Our model-based fair value is ¥14.72, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥20.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥9.95 to ¥20.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021) come from?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd grew +17.6 % a year from 2014 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.3 %, EBIT margin +19.8 %, tax rate +3.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
The market capitalisation of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd is 42.9B CNY (≈ $6.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd is 3.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd are ¥0.7800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
The dividend yield of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd is 0.8% (payout 28.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
The net margin of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd is 7.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
The operating margin of Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
Revenue at Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd is growing +30.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd are growing −1.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd (000021) hold?
Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 211M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 5, 2026