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COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd stock ¥7.72, price ¥9.12, that is 15.4% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

6 models, one by oneBear ¥7.17 to bull ¥9.25 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 58/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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Financial Services CN · ISIN CNE100000PX5

Some data Nov 7, 2026

COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd

002423 · SHE

Expensive, in a downtrend

Our calculation puts a fair price 15% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +17.5 %/yr in CNY)

Solidly profitable · 15.6% net margin (TTM)

1.6% dividend yield · Low payout

Quality 58/100

Mixed vs. peers (8/14)

Moderate moat 53/100 · thin data

Some data

Fair value ¥7.72 · Overvalued

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.57 – ¥20.89 · fair‑value band ¥7.17 – ¥9.25 · the ¥9.12 price screens above the ¥7.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

COFCO Capital Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the financial businesses in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Futures, Trust, Insurance, and Other.

Show moreShow less

It offers futures brokerage, risk management, asset management, and derivatives trading and hedging services; trust investment products, including cash management, quoted fixed-income pure bond, fixed income, equity investment, family trust, and supply chain finance products, as well as wealth management; and life insurance products, such as critical illness, medical, and accident insurance; savings-oriented products comprising increasing whole life and annuity insurance.

The company also provides insurance brokerage, risk management consulting, risk data analysis, and reinsurance services; reverse factoring, inclusive finance, electronic invoices, upstream and downstream finance, and technology finance services; equity funds; investment and merger and acquisition consulting services; cross-border finance; and banking business, which includes small business, agricultural, personal, and corporate finance.

In addition, it offers health management services, such as pre-diagnosis, diagnosis, and post-diagnosis, as well as MR tumor screening, premium physical examinations, medical accompaniment, targeted appointment scheduling, and health consultations; and legal and tax consultation, VIP privileges and travel, and SOS assistance.

The company was founded in 1997 and is based in Beijing, China. COFCO Capital Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of COFCO Corporation.

Stock analysis

COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423) currently trades at ¥9.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.72, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥9.57 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥9.12 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥2.17, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ¥7.17 (bear) to ¥9.25 (bull), the price of ¥9.12 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd reported revenue of 9.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 19.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −16.5%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding −4.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 21.0B CNY (≈ $3.1B) Mid · P/E ratio 17.5 · P/S ratio 2.72 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.5200 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 15.6% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −15%, 002423 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥7.17 Fair Value ¥7.72 Bull ¥9.25

Price ¥9.12 · Downside -15.4%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3190 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

Residual Income ¥7.61 ¥7.72 ¥8.13 76

Gordon GGM ¥1.55 ¥2.17 ¥2.80 69

DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.55 ¥2.16 ¥2.87 67

All 6 models by family

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM ¥1.55 ¥2.17 ¥2.80 69

DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.55 ¥2.16 ¥2.87 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple ¥4.79 ¥6.39 ¥7.99 63

P/B Multiple ¥9.55 ¥12.74 ¥15.92 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) ¥4.63 ¥6.20 ¥9.25 53

Economic Profit

Residual Income ¥7.61 ¥7.72 ¥8.13 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 23

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 50

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 100

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 26

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 64

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 87

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentum 25

Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 13

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 82

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+8.6%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+17.5%

Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+19.1%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+3.1%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+1.5%

Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 1.5% / 47.2%

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 81%

Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

002423 screens overvalued: fair value 15% below the price. Compare with Ping An Insurance (Group) Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 77 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 58 · Above median

Fair Value upside −15.4% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (12 months) 5.2% · Bottom 25%

Return on assets 1.0% · Below median

Net margin (12 months) 24.4% · Above median

Operating margin (12 months) 46.8% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −6.1% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (12 months) 1.6% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.09× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 17.5× · Pricier than median

P/B 0.92× · Cheaper than median

P/S (12 months) 4.26× · Priciest 25%

Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 1.8× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 6.4× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)13 · sector 7

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 38

PAST (return on equity)21 · sector 48

HEALTH (low debt)–

DIVIDEND (yield)32 · sector 56

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318	¥54.50	¥66.91	+23%	vs 002423
China Life Insurance Company 601628	¥35.51	¥40.47	+14%	vs 002423
Life Insurance Corporation LICI	₹394.00	₹299.42	−24%	vs 002423
Cathay Financial Holding 2882	111.00 TWD	71.53 TWD	−36%	vs 002423
Manulife Financial Corporation MFC	$43.24	$26.70	−38%	vs 002423
Fubon Financial Holding 2881	148.00 TWD	86.48 TWD	−42%	vs 002423
Aflac Incorporated AFL	$124.06	$67.30	−46%	vs 002423
AIA Group 1299	HK$78.45	HK$41.63	−47%	vs 002423
MetLife, Inc MET	$98.27	$48.73	−50%	vs 002423
Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO	C$90.17	C$41.90	−54%	vs 002423

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COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002423

Frequently asked questions

Is COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.72 versus a price of ¥9.12, about 15% lower (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 002423?

Our model-based fair value for COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is ¥7.72 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥9.12.

What is the quality score of 002423?

COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.72 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.17, optimistic scenario ¥9.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at ¥7.72, about 15% lower versus a price of ¥9.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥7.17, optimistic scenario ¥9.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).

Does COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd pay a dividend?

COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.62% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).

How much is the dividend of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423) and when is the ex-dividend date?

COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.148 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2020. The payout ratio is 28.5% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.

What is the intrinsic value of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd it is ¥7.72 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of ¥9.12. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).

Is COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Nov 7, 2026, 002423 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥9.12, fair value ¥7.72, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 002423?

No. The price is what the market pays today (¥9.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.72). For COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd the two are ¥1.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd worth?

The market values COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd at about 21.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is ¥9.12; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.72 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002423?

Our models span a range for COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥7.17, base ¥7.72, optimistic ¥9.25 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price ¥9.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 002423?

COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥7.72 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 25.5. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 6.4.

How solid is the balance sheet of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

Balance-sheet figures for COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 002423 from its 52-week high?

COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd trades at ¥9.12, about 26% below its 52-week high of ¥12.34 and 13% above the low of ¥8.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.72 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, China Life Insurance Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price ¥9.12, calculated fair value ¥7.72 (−15%), Quality Score 58/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 002423 calculated?

We run COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥7.72 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥9.12. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.72, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd right now?

Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

The market capitalisation of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 21.0B CNY (≈ $3.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

The price-to-sales ratio of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 2.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

Earnings per share at COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd are ¥0.5200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

The dividend yield of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 1.6% (payout 28.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

The net margin of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 15.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

The return on equity (ROE) of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

The operating margin of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 46.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

Revenue at COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is growing −6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −19.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?

Earnings per share at COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd are growing +41.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423) generate?

The free cash flow of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 18.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net cash does COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423) hold?

COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 6.6B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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