COFCO Capital Holdings (002423) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · CN · Market cap 20.9B CNY

A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.67 – ¥21.24 · fair‑value band ¥5.16 – ¥8.60 · the ¥9.11 price screens above the ¥6.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

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Analysis

COFCO Capital Holdings (002423) currently trades at ¥9.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.88, implying the stock looks roughly 24.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, COFCO Capital Holdings generated revenue of 7.9B CNY at a net margin of 12.8%. Revenue declined 10.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 6.6B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥5.16 (bear case) to ¥8.60 (bull case); at ¥9.11, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at -24%, 002423 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Economic Profit (¥7.74) versus Dividend Discount (¥4.30). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

COFCO Capital Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the financial businesses in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Futures, Trust, Insurance, and Other.

Full company description

COFCO Capital Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the financial businesses in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Futures, Trust, Insurance, and Other. It offers futures brokerage, risk management, asset management, and derivatives trading and hedging services; trust investment products, including cash management, quoted fixed-income pure bond, fixed income, equity investment, family trust, and supply chain finance products, as well as wealth management; and life insurance products, such as critical illness, medical, and accident insurance; savings-oriented products comprising increasing whole life and annuity insurance. The company also provides insurance brokerage, risk management consulting, risk data analysis, and reinsurance services; reverse factoring, inclusive finance, electronic invoices, upstream and downstream finance, and technology finance services; equity funds; investment and merger and acquisition consulting services; cross-border finance; and banking business, which includes small business, agricultural, personal, and corporate finance. In addition, it offers health management services, such as pre-diagnosis, diagnosis, and post-diagnosis, as well as MR tumor screening, premium physical examinations, medical accompaniment, targeted appointment scheduling, and health consultations; and legal and tax consultation, VIP privileges and travel, and SOS assistance. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in Beijing, China. COFCO Capital Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of COFCO Corporation.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

COFCO Capital Holdings reported revenue of ¥9.6B in FY2025 versus ¥19.7B in FY2021, a compound −16.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.1B in FY2025, compounding −4.7%/yr from FY2021.

002423 screens 24% overvalued. Compare with China Life Insurance Company →

Peer Group

Insurance - Life · 95 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.