COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd ¥7.11, price ¥9.35, upside -24.0%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.67 – ¥21.24 · fair‑value band ¥5.33 – ¥7.85 · the ¥9.35 price screens above the ¥7.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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COFCO Capital Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the financial businesses in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Futures, Trust, Insurance, and Other.
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COFCO Capital Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the financial businesses in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Futures, Trust, Insurance, and Other. It offers futures brokerage, risk management, asset management, and derivatives trading and hedging services; trust investment products, including cash management, quoted fixed-income pure bond, fixed income, equity investment, family trust, and supply chain finance products, as well as wealth management; and life insurance products, such as critical illness, medical, and accident insurance; savings-oriented products comprising increasing whole life and annuity insurance. The company also provides insurance brokerage, risk management consulting, risk data analysis, and reinsurance services; reverse factoring, inclusive finance, electronic invoices, upstream and downstream finance, and technology finance services; equity funds; investment and merger and acquisition consulting services; cross-border finance; and banking business, which includes small business, agricultural, personal, and corporate finance. In addition, it offers health management services, such as pre-diagnosis, diagnosis, and post-diagnosis, as well as MR tumor screening, premium physical examinations, medical accompaniment, targeted appointment scheduling, and health consultations; and legal and tax consultation, VIP privileges and travel, and SOS assistance. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in Beijing, China. COFCO Capital Holdings Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of COFCO Corporation.
Stock analysis
COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423) currently trades at ¥9.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.11, implying the stock looks roughly 31.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of ¥7.58 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥9.35 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥4.04, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥5.33 (bear) to ¥7.85 (bull), the price of ¥9.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd reported revenue of 9.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 19.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −16.5%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding −4.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 21.5B CNY (≈ $3.2B) · P/E ratio 21.3 · P/S ratio 2.51 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4400 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 11.8% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −24%, 002423 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥5.33Fair Value ¥7.11Bull ¥7.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2136 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2% vs 47%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 81%
Compare COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 95 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−24% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)13% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)28% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002423
Frequently asked questions
Is COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.11 versus a price of ¥9.35, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002423?
Our model-based fair value for COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is ¥7.11 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥9.35.
What is the quality score of 002423?
COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.11 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.33, optimistic scenario ¥7.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.11, about −24% upside versus a price of ¥9.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.33, optimistic scenario ¥7.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd pay a dividend?
COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.58% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd it is ¥7.11 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥9.35. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002423 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥9.35, fair value ¥7.11, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002423?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥9.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.11). For COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd the two are ¥2.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd worth?
The market values COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd at about 21.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥9.35; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002423?
Our models span a range for COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥5.33, base ¥7.11, optimistic ¥7.85 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥9.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002423?
COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥7.11 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
Balance-sheet figures for COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002423 from its 52-week high?
COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd trades at ¥9.35, about 32% below its 52-week high of ¥13.77 and 14% above the low of ¥8.23 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥9.35, calculated fair value ¥7.11 (−24%), Quality Score 58/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002423 calculated?
We run COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥7.11, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥9.35. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.11, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
The market capitalisation of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 21.5B CNY (≈ $3.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
The price-to-sales ratio of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 2.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
Earnings per share at COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd are ¥0.4400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
The dividend yield of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 1.6% (payout 33.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
The net margin of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 11.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
The return on equity (ROE) of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
The operating margin of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 27.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
Revenue at COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is growing −10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −19.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423)?
Earnings per share at COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd are growing −31.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423) generate?
The free cash flow of COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd is 18.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd (002423) hold?
COFCO Capital Holdings Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 6.6B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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