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Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cedar Development Co Ltd stock ¥1.07, price ¥4.80, that is 77.7% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical CN · ISIN CNE100000VS3

CD Cedar Development Co Ltd logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

Cedar Development Co Ltd

002485 · SHE
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 78% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Quality 41/100
Revenue last quarter 15% below a year ago.
Fair value ¥1.07 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −14.7 %/yr in CNY)
Loss-making · -39.7% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/10)
Narrow moat 12/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥6.24 ¥2.27 Fair Value ¥1.07 May 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.27 – ¥6.24 · fair‑value band ¥0.8000 – ¥1.60 · the ¥4.80 price screens above the ¥1.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Cedar Development Co.,Ltd. provides supply chain management services in China. The company offers supply chain services for the production and sales of coal, coke, aluminum, oil products, and steel products through Cedar Smart Chain platform.

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It also engages in the development and operation of cultural tourism business. The company was formerly known as Sinoer Men's Wear Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Cedar Development Co., Ltd. in August 2021. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Guangzhou, China.

Stock analysis

Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485) currently trades at ¥4.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.07, 78% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: ¥0.8000 (bear) to ¥1.60 (bull), the price of ¥4.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Cedar Development Co Ltd reported revenue of 655M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −18.4%/yr. Reported net income was −191M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 2.6B CNY (≈ $391M) Small · P/S ratio 5.81 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.3600 · Net margin −39.7% · Return on equity −17.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin −5.7% · Revenue (TTM) 492M CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −78%, 002485 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥0.8000 Fair Value ¥1.07 Bull ¥1.60
Price ¥4.80 · Downside -77.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.8000 ¥1.07 ¥1.60 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.8000 ¥1.07 ¥1.60 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 4
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 8
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 8
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 73
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 99
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 65
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 57
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 61
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−20.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.3% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2.5% (2020) → −18.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

002485 screens overvalued: fair value 78% below the price. Compare with Ralph Lauren Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Manufacturing · 213 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −77.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −11.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −39.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −5.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −14.8% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.53× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 5.31× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 14
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 64

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Apparel Manufacturing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Hla Group 600398 ¥6.20 ¥11.97 +93% vs 002485
Bosideng International Holdings 3998 HK$4.49 HK$7.49 +67% vs 002485
Kontoor Brands, Inc KTB $77.06 $86.80 +13% vs 002485
Moncler S.p.A MONC €45.37 €50.69 +12% vs 002485
Gildan Activewear Inc GIL $34.75 $32.49 −7% vs 002485
LPP SA LPP 27,480 PLN 20,032 PLN −27% vs 002485
Levi Strauss & Co LEVI $22.87 $16.24 −29% vs 002485
Youngor Fashion Co 600177 ¥8.43 ¥5.59 −34% vs 002485
Ralph Lauren Corporation RL $376.56 $226.91 −40% vs 002485
V.F. Corporation VFC $20.35 $11.04 −46% vs 002485

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Cedar Development Co Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cedar Development Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002485

Frequently asked questions

Is Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.07 versus a price of ¥4.80, about 78% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002485?
Our model-based fair value for Cedar Development Co Ltd is ¥1.07 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.80.
What is the quality score of 002485?
Cedar Development Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.07 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.8000, optimistic scenario ¥1.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cedar Development Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.07, about 78% lower versus a price of ¥4.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.8000, optimistic scenario ¥1.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485)?
Cedar Development Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 492M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cedar Development Co Ltd it is ¥1.07 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of ¥4.80. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Cedar Development Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 002485 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.80, fair value ¥1.07, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002485?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.07). For Cedar Development Co Ltd the two are ¥3.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cedar Development Co Ltd worth?
The market values Cedar Development Co Ltd at about 2.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.80; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002485?
Our models span a range for Cedar Development Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.8000, base ¥1.07, optimistic ¥1.60 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price ¥4.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cedar Development Co Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −17.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002485 from its 52-week high?
Cedar Development Co Ltd trades at ¥4.80, about 23% below its 52-week high of ¥6.24 and 27% above the low of ¥3.78 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cedar Development Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Ralph Lauren Corporation, Moncler S.p.A, LPP SA, Levi Strauss & Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cedar Development Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price ¥4.80, calculated fair value ¥1.07 (−78%), Quality Score 41/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002485 calculated?
We run Cedar Development Co Ltd through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥1.07 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Cedar Development Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥4.80. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.07, about 78% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cedar Development Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥0.8000 to ¥1.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Cedar Development Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485)?
The market capitalisation of Cedar Development Co Ltd is 2.6B CNY (≈ $391M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cedar Development Co Ltd is 5.81 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485)?
Earnings per share at Cedar Development Co Ltd are ¥−0.3600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485)?
The net margin of Cedar Development Co Ltd is −39.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cedar Development Co Ltd is −17.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cedar Development Co Ltd is −7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485)?
The operating margin of Cedar Development Co Ltd is −5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485)?
Revenue at Cedar Development Co Ltd is growing −14.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −27.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485)?
Earnings per share at Cedar Development Co Ltd are growing −88.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485) generate?
The free cash flow of Cedar Development Co Ltd is −183M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Cedar Development Co Ltd (002485) hold?
Cedar Development Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 199M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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