Cedar Development Co (002485) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 2.6B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥7.58 to ¥0.5800 (−92.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −0.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 90% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.6600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.27 – ¥5.90 · fair‑value band ¥0.5200 – ¥0.6600 · the ¥5.78 price screens above the ¥0.5800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Cedar Development Co (002485) currently trades at ¥5.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.5800, implying the stock looks roughly 90.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Cedar Development Co generated revenue of 517M CNY at a net margin of -38.4%. Revenue declined 63.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -17.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 199M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.5200 (bear case) to ¥0.6600 (bull case); at ¥5.78, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at -90%, 002485 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥1.27) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.5100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cedar Development Co.,Ltd. provides supply chain management services in China. The company offers supply chain services for the production and sales of coal, coke, aluminum, oil products, and steel products through Cedar Smart Chain platform. It also engages in the development and operation of cultural tourism business.
Full company description
Cedar Development Co.,Ltd. provides supply chain management services in China. The company offers supply chain services for the production and sales of coal, coke, aluminum, oil products, and steel products through Cedar Smart Chain platform. It also engages in the development and operation of cultural tourism business. The company was formerly known as Sinoer Men's Wear Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Cedar Development Co., Ltd. in August 2021. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Guangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cedar Development Co reported revenue of ¥655M in FY2025 versus ¥1.5B in FY2021, a compound −18.4%/yr. Reported net income was −¥191M in FY2025.
002485 screens 90% overvalued. Compare with H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB →
Peer Group
Apparel Manufacturing · 212 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Manufacturing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB HMB | kr 163.45 | kr 165.47 | +1% |
| Ralph Lauren Corporation RL | $374.08 | $224.21 | -40% |
| Moncler S.p.A MONC | €52.08 | €50.69 | -3% |
| LPP SA LPP | 19,380 PLN | 17,754 PLN | -8% |
| Bosideng International Holdings 3998 | HK$4.88 | HK$5.92 | +21% |
| Youngor Fashion Co 600177 | ¥7.57 | ¥5.59 | -26% |
| Page Industries Limited PAGEIND | ₹39,900 | ₹12,395 | -69% |
| Hla Group 600398 | ¥6.05 | ¥9.92 | +64% |
| Eclat Textile Co 1476 | 333.50 TWD | 357.81 TWD | +7% |
| Youngone Corporation 111770 | 87,600 KRW | 196,629 KRW | +124% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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