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Leader Education Ltd (1449) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Leader Education Ltd stock HK$1.41, price HK$0.88, upside +61.1%, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 3 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Defensive HK · Based in China · ISIN KYG5421B1086

LE Leader Education Ltd logo Thin data Nov 9, 2026

Leader Education Ltd

1449 · HK
Cheap, value-trap risk

The stock costs 38% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value HK$1.41 · Strongly undervalued
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +17.2 %/yr in CNY)
Moderate debt
Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
Quality 35/100
Loss-making · -21.4% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 15/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$1.99 HK$0.1713 Fair Value HK$1.41 Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1713 – HK$1.99 · fair‑value band HK$0.6000 – HK$2.22 · the HK$0.8750 price screens below the HK$1.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Leader Education Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the provision of private higher services in the People's Republic of China.

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It also provides private vocational education services, technical, education, enterprise business, and management consultancy, as well as education management and artificial intelligence services. Leader Education Limited was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Harbin, China.

Stock analysis

Leader Education Ltd (1449) currently trades at HK$0.8750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.41, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$1.01 per share, and 2 of the 3 models we run sit above the HK$0.8750 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$0.7250, and 1 of the 3 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.6000 (bear) to HK$2.22 (bull), the price of HK$0.8750 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Leader Education Ltd reported revenue of 345M CNY in FY2025 versus 196M CNY in FY2021, a compound +15.2%/yr. Reported net income was −73.0M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$613M (≈ $78.1M) Micro · P/S ratio 1.92 · Net margin −21.2% · Return on equity −8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 8.2% · Revenue (TTM) 364M CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) +11.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 262% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 31% fair-value upside, at 61%, 1449 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.6000 Fair Value HK$1.41 Bull HK$2.22
Price HK$0.8750 · Upside +61.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA HK$0.6000 HK$1.41 HK$2.22 63
EV/EBIT n/a HK$0.0400 >HK$0.1600 61
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.7500 HK$1.01 HK$1.50 54
All 3 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBIT n/a HK$0.0400 >HK$0.1600 61
EV/EBITDA HK$0.6000 HK$1.41 HK$2.22 63
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.7500 HK$1.01 HK$1.50 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 4
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 26
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 53
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 94
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 68
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
30.2% (2020) → 17.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Education & Training Services · 108 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +56.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −2.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −21.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 8.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 11.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.86× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.63× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 1.47× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.4× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)56 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)57 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 58

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Stride, Inc LRN $75.00 $171.72 +129% vs 1449
New Oriental Education & Technology Group 9901 HK$42.46 HK$64.52 +52% vs 1449
Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO $26.88 $40.81 +52% vs 1449
Covista Inc CVSA $110.32 $152.79 +39% vs 1449
Grand Canyon Education, Inc LOPE $117.69 $154.63 +31% vs 1449
Laureate Education, Inc LAUR $33.59 $42.74 +27% vs 1449
East Buy Holding 1797 HK$30.60 HK$33.66 +10% vs 1449
Youdao, Inc DAO $19.71 $18.57 −6% vs 1449
McGraw Hill, Inc MH $10.86 $8.95 −18% vs 1449
Physicswallah Limited PWL ₹130.00 ₹33.55 −74% vs 1449

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Leader Education Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Leader Education Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1449

Frequently asked questions

Is Leader Education Ltd (1449) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.41 versus a price of HK$0.8750, about +61% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1449?
Our model-based fair value for Leader Education Ltd is HK$1.41 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.8750.
What is the quality score of 1449?
Leader Education Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Leader Education Ltd (1449)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.41 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.6000, optimistic scenario HK$2.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Leader Education Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.41, about +61% upside versus a price of HK$0.8750 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.6000, optimistic scenario HK$2.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Leader Education Ltd (1449)?
Leader Education Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 364M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Leader Education Ltd (1449)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Leader Education Ltd it is HK$1.41 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of HK$0.8750. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Leader Education Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, 1449 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.8750, fair value HK$1.41, a gap of about +61% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1449?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.8750); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.41). For Leader Education Ltd the two are HK$0.5350 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Leader Education Ltd worth?
The market values Leader Education Ltd at about HK$613M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.8750; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1449?
Our models span a range for Leader Education Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.6000, base HK$1.41, optimistic HK$2.22 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price HK$0.8750). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Leader Education Ltd (1449)?
Balance-sheet figures for Leader Education Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −8.5%, debt of 0.86 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1449 from its 52-week high?
Leader Education Ltd trades at HK$0.8750, about 56% below its 52-week high of HK$1.99 and 262% above the low of HK$0.2420 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Leader Education Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Laureate Education, Inc, Covista Inc, Physicswallah Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Leader Education Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price HK$0.8750, calculated fair value HK$1.41 (+61%), Quality Score 35/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1449 calculated?
We run Leader Education Ltd through 3 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$1.41 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Leader Education Ltd currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Leader Education Ltd (1449)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was HK$0.8750. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.41, about +61% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Leader Education Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.6000 to HK$2.22). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Leader Education Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Leader Education Ltd (1449)?
The market capitalisation of Leader Education Ltd is HK$613M (≈ $78.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Leader Education Ltd (1449)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Leader Education Ltd is 1.92 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Leader Education Ltd (1449)?
The net margin of Leader Education Ltd is −21.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Leader Education Ltd (1449)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Leader Education Ltd is −8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Leader Education Ltd (1449)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Leader Education Ltd is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Leader Education Ltd (1449)?
The operating margin of Leader Education Ltd is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Leader Education Ltd (1449)?
Revenue at Leader Education Ltd is growing +11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Leader Education Ltd (1449)?
Earnings per share at Leader Education Ltd are growing −16.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Leader Education Ltd (1449) generate?
The free cash flow of Leader Education Ltd is −62.2M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Leader Education Ltd (1449) carry?
The net debt of Leader Education Ltd is 1.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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