China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Electric Manufacturing Corp stock TWD 6.38, price TWD 11.45, that is 44.3% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 9.16 TWD – 21.45 TWD · fair‑value band 5.55 TWD – 7.07 TWD · the 11.45 TWD price screens above the 6.38 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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China Electric Mfg. Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells electrical appliances, lighting products, and related accessories under the East Asia brand in Taiwan and internationally.
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The company offers fluorescent lamps, light bulbs, halogen and high-voltage discharge lamps, automotive and motorcycle bulbs, office and residential lighting, commercial and outdoor lighting, special lighting, ballasts, solar panels, solar and wind power generation systems, LEDs, optical fibers, water heaters, and bathroom products, etc.
It also acts as an agency for quotation, distribution, and tendering businesses. In addition, the company manufactures and sells glass shells and tubes; publishes magazines and journals; and develops and invests in real estate properties, as well as engages in investment activities.
Further, it is involved in import and export activities. China Electric Mfg. Corporation was in founded in 1944 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611) currently trades at 11.45 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6.38 TWD, 44% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 7.19 TWD per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the 11.45 TWD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 1.55 TWD, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 5.55 TWD (bear) to 7.07 TWD (bull), the price of 11.45 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
China Electric Manufacturing Corp reported revenue of 1.1B TWD in FY2025 versus 1.8B TWD in FY2021, a compound −12.0%/yr. Reported net income was 9.2M TWD in FY2025, compounding −57.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.7B TWD (≈ $112M) Micro · P/E ratio 25.4 · P/S ratio 3.62 · EPS (TTM) 0.4500 TWD · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin 14.5% · Return on equity 3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −44%, 1611 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear5.55 TWDFair Value 6.38 TWDBull7.07 TWD
Price 11.45 TWD · Downside -44.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−15.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−48.9% vs −3.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.39% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.9% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 297 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Electric Manufacturing Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1611
Frequently asked questions
Is China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 6.38 TWD versus a price of 11.45 TWD, about 44% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1611?
Our model-based fair value for China Electric Manufacturing Corp is 6.38 TWD (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 11.45 TWD.
What is the quality score of 1611?
China Electric Manufacturing Corp has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 6.38 TWD (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5.55 TWD, optimistic scenario 7.07 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Electric Manufacturing Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 6.38 TWD, about 44% lower versus a price of 11.45 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 5.55 TWD, optimistic scenario 7.07 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
China Electric Manufacturing Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does China Electric Manufacturing Corp pay a dividend?
China Electric Manufacturing Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 6.99% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611) and when is the ex-dividend date?
China Electric Manufacturing Corp pays a dividend of 0.8 TWD per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 26, 2026. The payout ratio is 178% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.89 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Electric Manufacturing Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +5.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -12.5 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1611 use?
Our models discount China Electric Manufacturing Corp at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Electric Manufacturing Corp that is +5.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Electric Manufacturing Corp grew -12.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +5.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Electric Manufacturing Corp (+5.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.27 %: that much free cash flow China Electric Manufacturing Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Electric Manufacturing Corp it is 6.38 TWD per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 11.45 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is China Electric Manufacturing Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, 1611 trades above its calculated fair value: price 11.45 TWD, fair value 6.38 TWD, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1611?
No. The price is what the market pays today (11.45 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (6.38 TWD). For China Electric Manufacturing Corp the two are 5.07 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Electric Manufacturing Corp worth?
The market values China Electric Manufacturing Corp at about 3.7B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 11.45 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 6.38 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1611?
Our models span a range for China Electric Manufacturing Corp: cautious scenario 5.55 TWD, base 6.38 TWD, optimistic 7.07 TWD per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 11.45 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1611?
China Electric Manufacturing Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.4 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 6.38 TWD is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings: 45.5. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 0.9, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 38.7.
What is the PEG ratio of 1611?
The PEG ratio of China Electric Manufacturing Corp is 2.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Electric Manufacturing Corp (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 3.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1611 from its 52-week high?
China Electric Manufacturing Corp trades at 11.45 TWD, about 24% below its 52-week high of 15.00 TWD and 4% above the low of 11.00 TWD (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 6.38 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Electric Manufacturing Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, SharkNinja, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Electric Manufacturing Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 11.45 TWD, calculated fair value 6.38 TWD (−44%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1611 calculated?
We run China Electric Manufacturing Corp through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 6.38 TWD builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. China Electric Manufacturing Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 11.45 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 6.38 TWD, about 44% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Electric Manufacturing Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (7.07 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of China Electric Manufacturing Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
The market capitalisation of China Electric Manufacturing Corp is 3.7B TWD (≈ $112M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Electric Manufacturing Corp is 3.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
Earnings per share at China Electric Manufacturing Corp are 0.4500 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
The dividend yield of China Electric Manufacturing Corp is 7.0% (payout 178%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
The net margin of China Electric Manufacturing Corp is 14.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Electric Manufacturing Corp is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Electric Manufacturing Corp is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
The operating margin of China Electric Manufacturing Corp is 36.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
Revenue at China Electric Manufacturing Corp is growing −7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611)?
Earnings per share at China Electric Manufacturing Corp are growing +8.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Electric Manufacturing Corp (1611) carry?
The net debt of China Electric Manufacturing Corp is 252M TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026