TST Group Holding Ltd (4439) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of TST Group Holding Ltd stock TWD 76.20, price TWD 96.20, that is 20.8% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 73.05 TWD – 159.46 TWD · fair‑value band 70.43 TWD – 83.64 TWD · the 96.20 TWD price screens above the 76.20 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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TST Group Holding Ltd. manufactures and sales of cotton fabric in textile industry. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in George Town, Cayman Islands.
Stock analysis
TST Group Holding Ltd (4439) currently trades at 96.20 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 76.20 TWD, 21% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 173.42 TWD per share, and 8 of the 16 models we run sit above the 96.20 TWD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 10.88 TWD, and 8 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 70.43 TWD (bear) to 83.64 TWD (bull), the price of 96.20 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
TST Group Holding Ltd reported revenue of 7.0B TWD in FY2025 versus 7.4B TWD in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was 294M TWD in FY2025, compounding −3.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.6B TWD (≈ $111M) Micro · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) 8.82 TWD · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 4.7% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −21%, 4439 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear70.43 TWDFair Value 76.20 TWDBull83.64 TWD
Price 96.20 TWD · Downside -20.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (4.13 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−4.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.8% vs 0.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.6%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Textile Manufacturing · 338 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−20.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)4.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)20.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Textile Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TST Group Holding Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4439
Frequently asked questions
Is TST Group Holding Ltd (4439) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 76.20 TWD versus a price of 96.20 TWD, about 21% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4439?
Our model-based fair value for TST Group Holding Ltd is 76.20 TWD (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 96.20 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4439?
TST Group Holding Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 76.20 TWD (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 70.43 TWD, optimistic scenario 83.64 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TST Group Holding Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 76.20 TWD, about 21% lower versus a price of 96.20 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 70.43 TWD, optimistic scenario 83.64 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
TST Group Holding Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.4B TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does TST Group Holding Ltd pay a dividend?
TST Group Holding Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439) and when is the ex-dividend date?
TST Group Holding Ltd pays a dividend of 4.00 TWD per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 16, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2020. The payout ratio is 45.4% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TST Group Holding Ltd it is 76.20 TWD per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 96.20 TWD. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is TST Group Holding Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 4439 trades above its calculated fair value: price 96.20 TWD, fair value 76.20 TWD, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4439?
No. The price is what the market pays today (96.20 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (76.20 TWD). For TST Group Holding Ltd the two are 20.00 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TST Group Holding Ltd worth?
The market values TST Group Holding Ltd at about 3.6B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 96.20 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 76.20 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4439?
Our models span a range for TST Group Holding Ltd: cautious scenario 70.43 TWD, base 76.20 TWD, optimistic 83.64 TWD per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 96.20 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4439?
TST Group Holding Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 76.20 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 5.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
Balance-sheet figures for TST Group Holding Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 11.1%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4439 from its 52-week high?
TST Group Holding Ltd trades at 96.20 TWD, about 11% below its 52-week high of 108.50 TWD and 22% above the low of 78.91 TWD (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 76.20 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TST Group Holding Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tongkun Group, Shenzhou International Group, Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co, Far Eastern New Century Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TST Group Holding Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 96.20 TWD, calculated fair value 76.20 TWD (−21%), Quality Score 62/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4439 calculated?
We run TST Group Holding Ltd through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 76.20 TWD builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. TST Group Holding Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 96.20 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 76.20 TWD, about 21% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TST Group Holding Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (83.64 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of TST Group Holding Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
The market capitalisation of TST Group Holding Ltd is 3.6B TWD (≈ $111M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TST Group Holding Ltd is 0.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
Earnings per share at TST Group Holding Ltd are 8.82 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
The dividend yield of TST Group Holding Ltd is 4.2% (payout 45.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
The net margin of TST Group Holding Ltd is 4.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TST Group Holding Ltd is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TST Group Holding Ltd is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
The operating margin of TST Group Holding Ltd is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
Revenue at TST Group Holding Ltd is growing +20.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
Earnings per share at TST Group Holding Ltd are growing +48.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does TST Group Holding Ltd (4439) generate?
The free cash flow of TST Group Holding Ltd is −12.8M TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does TST Group Holding Ltd (4439) carry?
The net debt of TST Group Holding Ltd is 1.0B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026