TST Group Holding Ltd (4439) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of TST Group Holding Ltd TWD 64.77, price TWD 96.40, upside -32.8%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 73.05 TWD – 159.46 TWD · fair‑value band 59.14 TWD – 71.09 TWD · the 96.40 TWD price screens above the 64.77 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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TST Group Holding Ltd. manufactures and sales of cotton fabric in textile industry. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in George Town, Cayman Islands.
Stock analysis
TST Group Holding Ltd (4439) currently trades at 96.40 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 64.77 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 48.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 145.50 TWD per share, and 8 of the 17 models we run sit above the 96.40 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 21.45 TWD, and 9 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 59.14 TWD (bear) to 71.09 TWD (bull), the price of 96.40 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
TST Group Holding Ltd reported revenue of 7.0B TWD in FY2025 versus 7.4B TWD in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was 294M TWD in FY2025, compounding −3.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.1B TWD (≈ $128M) · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 0.56 · EPS (TTM) 7.21 TWD · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 9.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −33%, 4439 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 59.14 TWDFair Value 64.77 TWDBull 71.09 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.36 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−4.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9% vs 0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.6%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Textile Manufacturing · 344 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−33% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Textile Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.21× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.58× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA6.1× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)11· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)36· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)83· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TST Group Holding Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4439
Frequently asked questions
Is TST Group Holding Ltd (4439) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 64.77 TWD versus a price of 96.40 TWD, about −33% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4439?
Our model-based fair value for TST Group Holding Ltd is 64.77 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 96.40 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4439?
TST Group Holding Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 64.77 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario 59.14 TWD, optimistic scenario 71.09 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TST Group Holding Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 64.77 TWD, about −33% upside versus a price of 96.40 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 59.14 TWD, optimistic scenario 71.09 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
TST Group Holding Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.0B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does TST Group Holding Ltd pay a dividend?
TST Group Holding Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TST Group Holding Ltd it is 64.77 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 96.40 TWD. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TST Group Holding Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4439 trades above its calculated fair value: price 96.40 TWD, fair value 64.77 TWD, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4439?
No. The price is what the market pays today (96.40 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (64.77 TWD). For TST Group Holding Ltd the two are 31.63 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TST Group Holding Ltd worth?
The market values TST Group Holding Ltd at about 4.1B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 96.40 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 64.77 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4439?
Our models span a range for TST Group Holding Ltd: cautious scenario 59.14 TWD, base 64.77 TWD, optimistic 71.09 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 96.40 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4439?
TST Group Holding Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 64.77 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
Balance-sheet figures for TST Group Holding Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.1%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4439 from its 52-week high?
TST Group Holding Ltd trades at 96.40 TWD, about 11% below its 52-week high of 108.50 TWD and 22% above the low of 78.91 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 64.77 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TST Group Holding Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Shenzhou International Group, Tongkun Group, Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co, K.P.R. Mill Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TST Group Holding Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 96.40 TWD, calculated fair value 64.77 TWD (−33%), Quality Score 49/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4439 calculated?
We run TST Group Holding Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 64.77 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. TST Group Holding Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 96.40 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 64.77 TWD, about −33% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TST Group Holding Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (71.09 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of TST Group Holding Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
The market capitalisation of TST Group Holding Ltd is 4.1B TWD (≈ $128M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TST Group Holding Ltd is 0.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
Earnings per share at TST Group Holding Ltd are 7.21 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
The dividend yield of TST Group Holding Ltd is 4.1% (payout 55.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
The net margin of TST Group Holding Ltd is 4.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TST Group Holding Ltd is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TST Group Holding Ltd is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
The operating margin of TST Group Holding Ltd is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
Revenue at TST Group Holding Ltd is growing +2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TST Group Holding Ltd (4439)?
Earnings per share at TST Group Holding Ltd are growing +18.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does TST Group Holding Ltd (4439) generate?
The free cash flow of TST Group Holding Ltd is −12.8M TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does TST Group Holding Ltd (4439) carry?
The net debt of TST Group Holding Ltd is 1.0B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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