Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guolian Securities Co Ltd stock ¥6.16, price ¥8.35, that is 26.2% below the price, quality 22 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.89 – ¥15.31 · fair‑value band ¥3.42 – ¥6.37 · the ¥8.35 price screens above the ¥6.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in the People's Republic of China.
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It operates through Brokerage and Wealth Management; Credit Transaction; Investment Banking Operations; Proprietary trading; Asset Management and Investment; and Others segments.
The company is engages in providing securities and futures trading and brokering services; investment consulting and asset allocation services; financial leverage for brokerage clients; corporate finance and financial advisory services; portfolio management and maintenance; investment advisory and transaction execution services; and wealth management products.
It is also involved in direct investments and funds related business; trading in financial products; securities-backed lending and securities repurchase businesses.
The company was formerly known as Guolian Securities Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. in January 2025. Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Wuxi, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456) currently trades at ¥8.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.16, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥14.70 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the ¥8.35 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥1.06, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥3.42 (bear) to ¥6.37 (bull), the price of ¥8.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Guolian Securities Co Ltd reported revenue of 10.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +34.0%/yr. Reported net income was 2.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding +22.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 46.9B CNY (≈ $7.0B) Mid · P/E ratio 20.2 · P/S ratio 5.14 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4100 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 25.1% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −26%, 601456 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥3.42Fair Value ¥6.16Bull¥6.37
Price ¥8.35 · Downside -26.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2992 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income¥7.40¥7.25¥7.4976
Owner Earnings¥4.02¥12.17¥29.1368
DDM Multi-Stage¥0.5500¥0.9700¥1.2067
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings¥4.02¥12.17¥29.1368
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥2.61¥18.23¥25.5863
Lynch FV¥7.81¥11.16¥14.5161
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥0.5500¥1.14¥1.7966
DDM Multi-Stage¥0.5500¥0.9700¥1.2067
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥3.75¥5.00¥6.2563
P/B Multiple¥4.76¥6.35¥7.9455
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥2.27¥3.04¥4.5454
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥7.40¥7.25¥7.4976
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+266.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.0% vs −2.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.66% → 36%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 51% above its own trend.
Compare Guolian Securities Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score22 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−26.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.4% · Below median
Return on assets1.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)25.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)38.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.2× · Pricier than median
P/B0.89× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)5.14× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA13.8× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)57· sector 68
PAST (return on equity)18· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)14· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guolian Securities Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601456
Frequently asked questions
Is Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥6.16 versus a price of ¥8.35, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601456?
Our model-based fair value for Guolian Securities Co Ltd is ¥6.16 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.35.
What is the quality score of 601456?
Guolian Securities Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 22/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥6.16 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.42, optimistic scenario ¥6.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guolian Securities Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥6.16, about 26% lower versus a price of ¥8.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.42, optimistic scenario ¥6.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
Guolian Securities Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Guolian Securities Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guolian Securities Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.72% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Guolian Securities Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.06 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 28, 2026. The payout ratio is 14.6% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.7% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.7% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guolian Securities Co Ltd it is ¥6.16 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of ¥8.35. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Guolian Securities Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 601456 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥8.35, fair value ¥6.16, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601456?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥6.16). For Guolian Securities Co Ltd the two are ¥2.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guolian Securities Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guolian Securities Co Ltd at about 46.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.35; our models calculate a fair value of ¥6.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601456?
Our models span a range for Guolian Securities Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.42, base ¥6.16, optimistic ¥6.37 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price ¥8.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601456?
Guolian Securities Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥6.16 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings: 45.1. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 5.1, EV/EBITDA 13.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guolian Securities Co Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 4.4%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 22/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601456 from its 52-week high?
Guolian Securities Co Ltd trades at ¥8.35, about 23% below its 52-week high of ¥10.82 and 6% above the low of ¥7.89 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥6.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guolian Securities Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guolian Securities Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price ¥8.35, calculated fair value ¥6.16 (−26%), Quality Score 22/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601456 calculated?
We run Guolian Securities Co Ltd through 9 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥6.16 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Guolian Securities Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥8.35. Our model-based fair value is ¥6.16, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guolian Securities Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥6.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (22/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (¥3.42 to ¥6.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456) come from?
Earnings per share at Guolian Securities Co Ltd grew −7.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin −5.8 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guolian Securities Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
The market capitalisation of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 46.9B CNY (≈ $7.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 5.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
Earnings per share at Guolian Securities Co Ltd are ¥0.4100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
The dividend yield of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 0.7% (payout 14.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
The net margin of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 25.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
The operating margin of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 38.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
Revenue at Guolian Securities Co Ltd is growing +11.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +55.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
Earnings per share at Guolian Securities Co Ltd are growing +38.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456) generate?
The free cash flow of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is −5.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456) carry?
The net debt of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 78.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026