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Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Guolian Securities Co Ltd ¥6.27, price ¥8.65, upside -27.5%, quality 21 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · CN · ISIN CNE1000041D8

GS Some data Sep 24, 2026

Guolian Securities Co Ltd

601456 · SHG

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value ¥6.27 · Overvalued (−27%)
!Quality 21/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +38.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 24.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·0.69% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Moderate moat 55/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 16 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 14 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥15.47 ¥8.46 Fair Value ¥6.27 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥8.46 – ¥15.47 · fair‑value band ¥3.70 – ¥6.27 · the ¥8.65 price screens above the ¥6.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Brokerage and Wealth Management; Credit Transaction; Investment Banking Operations; Proprietary trading; Asset Management and Investment; and Others segments.

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Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Brokerage and Wealth Management; Credit Transaction; Investment Banking Operations; Proprietary trading; Asset Management and Investment; and Others segments. The company is engages in providing securities and futures trading and brokering services; investment consulting and asset allocation services; financial leverage for brokerage clients; corporate finance and financial advisory services; portfolio management and maintenance; investment advisory and transaction execution services; and wealth management products. It is also involved in direct investments and funds related business; trading in financial products; securities-backed lending and securities repurchase businesses. The company was formerly known as Guolian Securities Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. in January 2025. Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Wuxi, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456) currently trades at ¥8.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.27, implying the stock looks roughly 37.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥20.82 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the ¥8.65 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.9800, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ¥3.70 (bear) to ¥6.27 (bull), the price of ¥8.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Guolian Securities Co Ltd reported revenue of 10.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +34.0%/yr. Reported net income was 2.0B CNY in FY2025, compounding +22.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 48.6B CNY (≈ $7.3B) · P/E ratio 24.9 · P/S ratio 4.73 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.3600 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 19.0% · Return on equity 4.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −27%, 601456 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥3.70 Fair Value ¥6.27 Bull ¥6.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2195 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥7.41 ¥7.27 ¥6.44 76
Owner Earnings ¥7.79 ¥20.82 ¥48.17 69
Gordon GGM ¥0.5600 ¥1.16 ¥1.84 66
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥7.79 ¥20.82 ¥48.17 69
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.61 ¥18.19 ¥25.52 63
Lynch FV ¥7.79 ¥11.13 ¥14.47 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.5600 ¥1.16 ¥1.84 66
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.5600 ¥0.9800 ¥1.22 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥3.74 ¥4.99 ¥6.23 63
P/B Multiple ¥4.89 ¥6.52 ¥8.15 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥5.01 ¥6.71 ¥10.02 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥7.41 ¥7.27 ¥6.44 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 21/100

Of which business quality 20 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 26
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+266.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs −3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.66% → 36%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 51% above its own trend.

601456 screens 38% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 463 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 22 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −28% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 24% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 33% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 18% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.42× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 24.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.93× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 5.49× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 14.2× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)91 · sector 91
PAST (return on equity)16 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)79 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)14 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $91.88 $23.37 −75%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $124.25 $47.73 −62%
Macquarie Group MQG A$242.35 A$75.58 −69%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥26.89 ¥17.68 −34%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.71 ¥18.62 +5%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.77 ¥4.77 −75%
CSC Financial Co 601066 ¥23.77 ¥40.45 +70%

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Guolian Securities Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥6.27 −38%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guolian Securities Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601456

Frequently asked questions

Is Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥6.27 versus a price of ¥8.65, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601456?
Our model-based fair value for Guolian Securities Co Ltd is ¥6.27 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.65.
What is the quality score of 601456?
Guolian Securities Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥6.27 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.70, optimistic scenario ¥6.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guolian Securities Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥6.27, about −27% upside versus a price of ¥8.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.70, optimistic scenario ¥6.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
Guolian Securities Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Guolian Securities Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guolian Securities Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.69% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guolian Securities Co Ltd it is ¥6.27 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥8.65. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guolian Securities Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 601456 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥8.65, fair value ¥6.27, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601456?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥6.27). For Guolian Securities Co Ltd the two are ¥2.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guolian Securities Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guolian Securities Co Ltd at about 48.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.65; our models calculate a fair value of ¥6.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601456?
Our models span a range for Guolian Securities Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.70, base ¥6.27, optimistic ¥6.27 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥8.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601456?
Guolian Securities Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥6.27 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 5.5, EV/EBITDA 14.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guolian Securities Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.1%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601456 from its 52-week high?
Guolian Securities Co Ltd trades at ¥8.65, about 24% below its 52-week high of ¥11.32 and 1% above the low of ¥8.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥6.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guolian Securities Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guolian Securities Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥8.65, calculated fair value ¥6.27 (−27%), Quality Score 21/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601456 calculated?
We run Guolian Securities Co Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥6.27, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Guolian Securities Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥8.65. Our model-based fair value is ¥6.27, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guolian Securities Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥6.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456) come from?
Earnings per share at Guolian Securities Co Ltd grew −7.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin −5.8 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Guolian Securities Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
The market capitalisation of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 48.6B CNY (≈ $7.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 4.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
Earnings per share at Guolian Securities Co Ltd are ¥0.3600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
The dividend yield of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 0.7% (payout 16.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
The net margin of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 19.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
The operating margin of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 33.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
Revenue at Guolian Securities Co Ltd is growing +18.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +55.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456)?
Earnings per share at Guolian Securities Co Ltd are growing +12.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456) generate?
The free cash flow of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is −5.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guolian Securities Co Ltd (601456) carry?
The net debt of Guolian Securities Co Ltd is 78.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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