Guolian Minsheng Securities Co (601456) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · CN · Market cap 50.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +1.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.46 – ¥16.25 · fair‑value band ¥3.18 – ¥5.64 · the ¥8.96 price screens above the ¥4.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
Analysis
Guolian Minsheng Securities Co (601456) currently trades at ¥8.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.24, implying the stock looks roughly 52.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guolian Minsheng Securities Co generated revenue of 8.9B CNY at a net margin of 24.0%. Revenue grew 18.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.1%. Net debt stands at 78.5B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.18 (bear case) to ¥5.64 (bull case); at ¥8.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -53%, 601456 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥12.45) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.9800). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 20 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Brokerage and Wealth Management; Credit Transaction; Investment Banking Operations; Proprietary trading; Asset Management and Investment; and Others segments.
Full company description
Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Brokerage and Wealth Management; Credit Transaction; Investment Banking Operations; Proprietary trading; Asset Management and Investment; and Others segments. The company is engages in providing securities and futures trading and brokering services; investment consulting and asset allocation services; financial leverage for brokerage clients; corporate finance and financial advisory services; portfolio management and maintenance; investment advisory and transaction execution services; and wealth management products. It is also involved in direct investments and funds related business; trading in financial products; securities-backed lending and securities repurchase businesses. The company was formerly known as Guolian Securities Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. in January 2025. Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Wuxi, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guolian Minsheng Securities Co reported revenue of ¥10.6B in FY2025 versus ¥3.3B in FY2021, a compound +34.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.0B in FY2025, compounding +22.6%/yr from FY2021.
601456 screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Huatai Securities Co →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 425 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huatai Securities Co HTSC | $0.2700 | $0.0400 | -85% |
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,750 KRW | 31,645 KRW | -18% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 117,000 KRW | 87,706 KRW | -25% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 239,000 KRW | 318,825 KRW | +33% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 31,000 KRW | 37,133 KRW | +20% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 107,700 KRW | 126,487 KRW | +17% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited MOTILALOFS | ₹967.00 | ₹299.65 | -69% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 322,000 KRW | 358,091 KRW | +11% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 24,250 VND | 28,021 VND | +16% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 120.22 ARS | -62% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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