Huali Industries (603038) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Huali Industries stock ¥3.08, price ¥12.69, that is 75.7% below the price, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.51 – ¥32.67 · fair‑value band ¥1.74 – ¥3.41 · the ¥12.69 price screens above the ¥3.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Dongguan Huali Industries Co.,Ltd researches and develops, designs, produces, and sells decorative composite materials in China and internationally.
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It offers Melamine edge-banding, ABS edge-banding, PVC edge-banding, 3D edge-banding, LASER / HOT AIR edge banding etc.; bumper strip, sealing strip, golden-silver line, skirting board, kitchen skirting, wave board, flooring profile, Roman column, door frame, etc.; and decorative panels, including OSB board and particle boards.
The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Dongguan, China.
Stock analysis
Huali Industries (603038) currently trades at ¥12.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.08, 76% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥3.94 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥12.69 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at ¥1.56, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥1.74 (bear) to ¥3.41 (bull), the price of ¥12.69 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Huali Industries reported revenue of 1.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was 21.6M CNY in FY2025, compounding +0.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.4B CNY (≈ $511M) Small · P/E ratio 43.8 · P/S ratio 2.46 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.2900 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −76%, 603038 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.9600 to ¥13.90). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥1.74Fair Value ¥3.08Bull¥3.41
Price ¥12.69 · Downside -75.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2058 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.43/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.8% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10.3% vs −14.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 7%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 296 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Huali Industries Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603038
Frequently asked questions
Is Huali Industries (603038) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.08 versus a price of ¥12.69, about 76% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603038?
Our model-based fair value for Huali Industries is ¥3.08 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥12.69.
What is the quality score of 603038?
Huali Industries has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Huali Industries (603038)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.08 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.74, optimistic scenario ¥3.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Huali Industries stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.08, about 76% lower versus a price of ¥12.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.74, optimistic scenario ¥3.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Huali Industries (603038)?
Huali Industries reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Huali Industries pay a dividend?
Huali Industries currently shows a dividend yield of 0.39% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Huali Industries (603038) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Huali Industries pays a dividend of ¥0.05 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 18, 2026. The payout ratio is 17.2% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.4% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.4% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Huali Industries (603038)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Huali Industries it is ¥3.08 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of ¥12.69. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Huali Industries stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, 603038 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥12.69, fair value ¥3.08, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603038?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥12.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.08). For Huali Industries the two are ¥9.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Huali Industries worth?
The market values Huali Industries at about 3.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is ¥12.69; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603038?
Our models span a range for Huali Industries: cautious scenario ¥1.74, base ¥3.08, optimistic ¥3.41 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price ¥12.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603038?
Huali Industries trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.8 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 18.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Huali Industries (603038)?
Balance-sheet figures for Huali Industries (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 6.0%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603038 from its 52-week high?
Huali Industries trades at ¥12.69, about 41% below its 52-week high of ¥21.57 and 11% above the low of ¥11.47 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Huali Industries?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, SharkNinja, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Huali Industries stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price ¥12.69, calculated fair value ¥3.08 (−76%), Quality Score 47/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603038 calculated?
We run Huali Industries through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥3.08 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Huali Industries itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Huali Industries (603038)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥12.69. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.08, about 76% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Huali Industries right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (47/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (¥1.74 to ¥3.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Huali Industries
How large is the market capitalisation of Huali Industries (603038)?
The market capitalisation of Huali Industries is 3.4B CNY (≈ $511M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Huali Industries (603038)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Huali Industries is 2.46 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Huali Industries (603038)?
Earnings per share at Huali Industries are ¥0.2900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Huali Industries (603038)?
The dividend yield of Huali Industries is 0.4% (payout 17.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Huali Industries (603038)?
The net margin of Huali Industries is 5.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Huali Industries (603038)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Huali Industries is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Huali Industries (603038)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Huali Industries is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Huali Industries (603038)?
The operating margin of Huali Industries is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Huali Industries (603038)?
Revenue at Huali Industries is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Huali Industries (603038)?
Earnings per share at Huali Industries are growing −33.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Huali Industries (603038) generate?
The free cash flow of Huali Industries is −23.4M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Huali Industries (603038) carry?
The net debt of Huali Industries is 370M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026