Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg stock ¥11.19, price ¥30.28, that is 63.0% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥12.10 – ¥97.06 · fair‑value band ¥6.64 – ¥17.36 · the ¥30.28 price screens above the ¥11.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
Follow Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Wuxi Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Manufacturing Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, design, production, and sales of heat exchangers and related products in China and internationally. It offers aluminum plate-fin heat exchangers and thermal management systems.
Show moreShow less
The company also provides power lithium battery pack for energy storage systems for power, construction machinery, special trucks, and mining machinery markets. It exports its products to the United States, South Korea, the European Union, and India.
The company's products are used in off-highway, hydraulic system, compressor, train, power generation, agriculture, automotive, and other fields. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Wuxi, China.
Stock analysis
Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090) currently trades at ¥30.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.19, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥14.83 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥30.28 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.58, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥6.64 (bear) to ¥17.36 (bull), the price of ¥30.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg reported revenue of 764M CNY in FY2025 versus 559M CNY in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was 82.4M CNY in FY2025, compounding +54.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 3.0B CNY (≈ $454M) Small · P/E ratio 46.6 · P/S ratio 3.58 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.6500 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 69% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −63%, 603090 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥6.64Fair Value ¥11.19Bull¥17.36
Price ¥30.28 · Downside -63.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2992 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.4% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +46.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +45.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 40.6% / 5.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 11%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.13 per share, median 0.47 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 55% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+50.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +48.4% a year for the price.
Compare Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 814 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−63.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.5% · Above median
Return on assets8.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)18.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.19 versus a price of ¥30.28, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603090?
Our model-based fair value for Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg is ¥11.19 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥30.28.
What is the quality score of 603090?
Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥11.19 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥6.64, optimistic scenario ¥17.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥11.19, about 63% lower versus a price of ¥30.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥6.64, optimistic scenario ¥17.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 845M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg pay a dividend?
Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg currently shows a dividend yield of 0.99% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg pays a dividend of ¥0.3 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.0%. The last ex-dividend date was May 19, 2026. The payout ratio is 46.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.88 times. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 1.0% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 1.0% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What growth is priced into Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg would have to grow free cash flow by +50.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.6 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603090 use?
Our models discount Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.03, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg that is +50.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg grew +18.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +50.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (+50.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.87 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg it is ¥11.19 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥30.28. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 603090 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥30.28, fair value ¥11.19, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603090?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥30.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥11.19). For Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg the two are ¥19.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg worth?
The market values Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg at about 3.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥30.28; our models calculate a fair value of ¥11.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603090?
Our models span a range for Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg: cautious scenario ¥6.64, base ¥11.19, optimistic ¥17.36 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥30.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603090?
Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 46.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥11.19 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 60.1. Other multiples: P/B 4.8, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 28.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 10.5%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603090 from its 52-week high?
Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg trades at ¥30.28, about 69% below its 52-week high of ¥97.06 and 6% above the low of ¥28.55 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥11.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥30.28, calculated fair value ¥11.19 (−63%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603090 calculated?
We run Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥11.19 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥30.28. Our model-based fair value is ¥11.19, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥17.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (¥6.64 to ¥17.36). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090) come from?
Earnings per share at Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg grew +0.9 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.0 %, EBIT margin −6.5 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg
How large is the market capitalisation of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
The market capitalisation of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg is 3.0B CNY (≈ $454M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg is 3.58 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
Earnings per share at Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg are ¥0.6500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 46.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
The dividend yield of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg is 1.0% (payout 46.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
The net margin of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg is 7.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
The operating margin of Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
Revenue at Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg is growing +18.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090)?
Earnings per share at Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg are growing −43.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg (603090) hold?
Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg holds more cash than debt, 65.5M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg in the live analysis
One click puts Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Mnfg on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 5, 2026