Three Stars NM (603578) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Three Stars NM stock ¥28.11, price ¥9.54, upside +194.7%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.54 – ¥17.49 · fair‑value band ¥18.87 – ¥44.45 · the ¥9.54 price screens below the ¥28.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells glass products in China and internationally. It offers glass door, deep-processed glass, photovoltaic glass, and plastic products. The company also imports and exports its products.
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Its products are used in low-temperature storage equipment, including beverage cabinets, wine cabinets, smart retail cabinets, horizontal freezers, food refrigerators, biomedical refrigerators, and other applications. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Huzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Three Stars NM (603578) currently trades at ¥9.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥28.11, implying the stock looks roughly 66% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥34.75 per share, and 8 of the 13 models we run sit above the ¥9.54 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥4.59, and 5 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥18.87 (bear) to ¥44.45 (bull), the price of ¥9.54 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Three Stars NM reported revenue of 1.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 826M CNY in FY2021, a compound +16.8%/yr. Reported net income was −170M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.2B CNY (≈ $333M) Small · P/S ratio 2.02 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.9600 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin −11.4% · Return on equity −22.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −10.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 195%, 603578 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥18.87Fair Value ¥28.11Bull¥44.45
Price ¥9.54 · Upside +194.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+51.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
20.3% (2019) → −9.7% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 813 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside+194.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−11.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−10.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−3.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Is Three Stars NM (603578) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥28.11 versus a price of ¥9.54, about +195% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 603578?
Our model-based fair value for Three Stars NM is ¥28.11 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥9.54.
What is the quality score of 603578?
Three Stars NM has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Three Stars NM (603578)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥28.11 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥18.87, optimistic scenario ¥44.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Three Stars NM stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥28.11, about +195% upside versus a price of ¥9.54 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥18.87, optimistic scenario ¥44.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Three Stars NM (603578)?
Three Stars NM reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Three Stars NM pay a dividend?
Three Stars NM currently shows a dividend yield of 0.84% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Three Stars NM (603578)?
Three Stars NM has a dividend yield of 0.8%.
What growth is priced into Three Stars NM (603578)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Three Stars NM would have to grow free cash flow by -20.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.7 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603578 use?
Our models discount Three Stars NM at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Three Stars NM that is -20.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Three Stars NM (603578) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Three Stars NM grew +21.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -20.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Three Stars NM (603578) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Three Stars NM (-20.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Three Stars NM (603578)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 28.19 %: that much free cash flow Three Stars NM produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Three Stars NM (603578)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Three Stars NM it is ¥28.11 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of ¥9.54. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Three Stars NM stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 603578 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥9.54, fair value ¥28.11, a gap of about +195% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603578?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥9.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥28.11). For Three Stars NM the two are ¥18.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Three Stars NM worth?
The market values Three Stars NM at about 2.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is ¥9.54; our models calculate a fair value of ¥28.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603578?
Our models span a range for Three Stars NM: cautious scenario ¥18.87, base ¥28.11, optimistic ¥44.45 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price ¥9.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Three Stars NM (603578)?
Balance-sheet figures for Three Stars NM (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity −22.2%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603578 from its 52-week high?
Three Stars NM trades at ¥9.54, about 44% below its 52-week high of ¥17.00 and at the low of ¥9.54 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥28.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Three Stars NM?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Three Stars NM stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price ¥9.54, calculated fair value ¥28.11 (+195%), Quality Score 53/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603578 calculated?
We run Three Stars NM through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥28.11 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Three Stars NM currently trades 66% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Three Stars NM (603578)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥9.54. Our model-based fair value is ¥28.11, about +195% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Three Stars NM right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥18.87). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (¥18.87 to ¥44.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Three Stars NM (603578) come from?
Earnings per share at Three Stars NM grew +9.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.9 %, EBIT margin +0.6 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Three Stars NM
How large is the market capitalisation of Three Stars NM (603578)?
The market capitalisation of Three Stars NM is 2.2B CNY (≈ $333M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Three Stars NM (603578)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Three Stars NM is 2.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Three Stars NM (603578)?
Earnings per share at Three Stars NM are ¥−0.9600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Three Stars NM (603578)?
The dividend yield of Three Stars NM is 0.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Three Stars NM (603578)?
The net margin of Three Stars NM is −11.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Three Stars NM (603578)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Three Stars NM is −22.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Three Stars NM (603578)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Three Stars NM is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Three Stars NM (603578)?
The operating margin of Three Stars NM is −10.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Three Stars NM (603578)?
Revenue at Three Stars NM is growing −3.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Three Stars NM (603578)?
Earnings per share at Three Stars NM are growing −45.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Three Stars NM (603578) carry?
The net debt of Three Stars NM is 5.4M CNY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 3, 2026