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Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co (603578) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 3.0B CNY

ZT Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co 603578 · SHG
Price¥12.09
Fair Value¥8.45
Upside-30.1%
Quality52/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -11.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Narrow moat 20/100
Evidence: High Range ¥6.20 – ¥10.52 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ¥14.15 to ¥8.45 (−40.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −9.6% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 30% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥10.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥17.49 ¥9.51 Fair Value ¥8.45 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥9.51 – ¥17.49 · fair‑value band ¥6.20 – ¥10.52 · the ¥12.09 price screens above the ¥8.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co (603578) currently trades at ¥12.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.45, implying the stock looks roughly 30.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co generated revenue of 1.6B CNY at a net margin of -11.5%. Revenue grew 14.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -21.7%. Net debt stands at 5.4M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥6.20 (bear case) to ¥10.52 (bull case); at ¥12.09, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -30%, 603578 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥29.70 ¥56.32 ¥104.63 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥12.94 ¥19.99 ¥30.24 74
ROIC Compounder ¥5.36 ¥7.54 ¥9.20 72
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥31.08 ¥51.42 ¥106.87 38
5Y Revenue Exit ¥12.94 ¥18.88 ¥29.04 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥16.95 ¥27.64 ¥45.65 41
10Y Revenue Exit ¥18.29 ¥27.94 ¥37.89 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥21.21 ¥35.24 ¥58.42 37
Earnings-Based
EPV ¥4.67 ¥5.30 ¥5.84 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.01 ¥2.00 ¥3.04 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.01 ¥1.73 ¥2.12 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT ¥6.91 ¥8.98 ¥11.06 53
EV/EBITDA ¥11.31 ¥14.86 ¥18.40 54
EV/Revenue ¥5.13 ¥7.03 ¥8.93 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.82 ¥2.44 ¥3.65 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥29.70 ¥56.32 ¥104.63 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥12.94 ¥19.99 ¥30.24 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder ¥5.36 ¥7.54 ¥9.20 72

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥27.94) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.73). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.6B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +14.3%
Net margin -11.5%
Return on equity -21.7%
Free cash flow 485M CNY FY2025
Operating margin 4.0%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥-1.02
EPS growth (YoY) -45.5%
Net debt 5.4M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 7
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 65
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 90
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 53
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 15
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 86
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells glass products in China and internationally. It offers glass door, deep-processed glass, photovoltaic glass, and plastic products. The company also imports and exports its products.

Full company description

Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells glass products in China and internationally. It offers glass door, deep-processed glass, photovoltaic glass, and plastic products. The company also imports and exports its products. Its products are used in low-temperature storage equipment, including beverage cabinets, wine cabinets, smart retail cabinets, horizontal freezers, food refrigerators, biomedical refrigerators, and other applications. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Huzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co reported revenue of ¥1.5B in FY2025 versus ¥826M in FY2021, a compound +16.8%/yr. Reported net income was −¥170M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.5B CNY
Latest YoY
+51.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+26.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+21.7%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.2%
Revenue +16.8%/yr
FY21 ¥826M
FY22 ¥763M
FY23 ¥892M
FY24 ¥1.0B
FY25 ¥1.5B
Net income
FY21 ¥98.5M
FY22 ¥104M
FY23 ¥116M
FY24 −¥65.6M
FY25 −¥170M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) +9.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +10.9 pp

of which total revenue +16.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.2 pp

EBIT margin +0.6 pp
Tax rate +0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

603578 screens 30% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603578

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 808 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −30% · Above median
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -12% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Revenue growth 14% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.48× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.53× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.28× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 1.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 72 · sector 23
PAST 0 · sector 28
HEALTH 76 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 24

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

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Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 ¥43.20 ¥22.68 -48%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co (603578) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.45 versus a price of ¥12.09, about −30% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603578?
Our model-based fair value for Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co is ¥8.45 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥12.09.
What is the quality score of 603578?
Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co (603578)?
Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 603578?
The net profit margin of Zhejiang Three Stars New Materials Co is about -11.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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