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Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Xingguang Agricultural Mach stock ¥3.44, price ¥5.48, that is 37.2% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Industrials CN · ISIN CNE1000022X6

XA Xingguang Agricultural Mach logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Xingguang Agricultural Mach

603789 · SHG
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 37% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter +54% vs. a year ago.
Quality 40/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.2 %/yr in CNY)
Moderate debt
Fair value ¥3.44 · Strongly overvalued
Loss-making · -28.8% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/11)
Narrow moat 9/100
Thin data
Estimate
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

¥14.50 ¥4.98 Fair Value ¥3.44 Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.98 – ¥14.50 · fair‑value band ¥2.58 – ¥4.29 · the ¥5.48 price screens above the ¥3.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Thinker Agricultural Machinery Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, manufacture, sale, and service of agricultural machinery in China and internationally. Its products include grain harvesting, grain crop harvesting, grain processing, farming, power, and hay harvesting machineries.

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The company was founded in 2004 and is based in Huzhou, China.

Stock analysis

Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789) currently trades at ¥5.48, while our estimate is ¥3.44, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: ¥2.58 (bear) to ¥4.29 (bull), the price of ¥5.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Xingguang Agricultural Mach reported revenue of 386M CNY in FY2025 versus 402M CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was −99.0M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 1.5B CNY (≈ $222M) Micro · P/S ratio 3.06 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.5100 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin −28.8% · Return on equity −60.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin −37.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −37%, 603789 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear ¥2.58 Fair Value ¥3.44 Bull ¥4.29
Price ¥5.48 · Downside -37.2%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 4
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 10
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 16
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 89
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 64
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 32
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 20
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 79
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 33/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+43.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.1% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−126.9% (2020) → −24.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

603789 screens overvalued: fair value 37% below the price. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 149 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −37.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −8.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −28.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −37.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 53.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.67× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/B 10.83× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 3.12× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 50
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)66 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)23 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 HK$34.86 HK$56.97 +63% vs 603789
XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 ¥6.92 ¥9.74 +41% vs 603789
Daimler Truck Holding DTG €42.77 €49.89 +17% vs 603789
Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 ¥18.73 ¥21.45 +15% vs 603789
Metso Oyj METSO €17.24 €18.69 +8% vs 603789
PACCAR Inc PCAR $105.57 $112.18 +6% vs 603789
Traton SE 8TRA €34.74 €32.85 −5% vs 603789
CNH Industrial N.V CNH $12.26 $8.65 −29% vs 603789
Caterpillar Inc CAT $584.57 $283.68 −51% vs 603789
Deere & Company DE $687.64 $263.46 −62% vs 603789

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Xingguang Agricultural Mach: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xingguang Agricultural Mach Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603789

Frequently asked questions

Is Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is ¥3.44 versus a price of ¥5.48, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603789?
Our estimate for Xingguang Agricultural Mach is ¥3.44 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.48.
What is the quality score of 603789?
Xingguang Agricultural Mach has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of ¥3.44 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario ¥2.58, optimistic scenario ¥4.29. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Xingguang Agricultural Mach stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at ¥3.44, about 37% lower versus a price of ¥5.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.58, optimistic scenario ¥4.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
Xingguang Agricultural Mach reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 476M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
Does Xingguang Agricultural Mach pay a dividend?
Xingguang Agricultural Mach currently shows a dividend yield of 1.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
Xingguang Agricultural Mach has a dividend yield of 1.2%.
What is the intrinsic value of Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xingguang Agricultural Mach it is ¥3.44 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of ¥5.48.
Is Xingguang Agricultural Mach stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, 603789 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥5.48, fair value ¥3.44, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603789?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.44). For Xingguang Agricultural Mach the two are ¥2.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xingguang Agricultural Mach worth?
The market values Xingguang Agricultural Mach at about 1.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.48; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603789?
Our models span a range for Xingguang Agricultural Mach: cautious scenario ¥2.58, base ¥3.44, optimistic ¥4.29 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price ¥5.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xingguang Agricultural Mach (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −60.1%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603789 from its 52-week high?
Xingguang Agricultural Mach trades at ¥5.48, about 22% below its 52-week high of ¥7.06 and 5% above the low of ¥5.23 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xingguang Agricultural Mach?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xingguang Agricultural Mach stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price ¥5.48, calculated fair value ¥3.44 (−37%), Quality Score 40/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Xingguang Agricultural Mach itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was ¥5.48. Our estimate is ¥3.44, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xingguang Agricultural Mach right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Xingguang Agricultural Mach

How large is the market capitalisation of Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
The market capitalisation of Xingguang Agricultural Mach is 1.5B CNY (≈ $222M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xingguang Agricultural Mach is 3.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
Earnings per share at Xingguang Agricultural Mach are ¥−0.5100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
The dividend yield of Xingguang Agricultural Mach is 1.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
The net margin of Xingguang Agricultural Mach is −28.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xingguang Agricultural Mach is −60.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xingguang Agricultural Mach is −11.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
The operating margin of Xingguang Agricultural Mach is −37.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
Revenue at Xingguang Agricultural Mach is growing +53.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789)?
Earnings per share at Xingguang Agricultural Mach are growing −42.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789) generate?
The free cash flow of Xingguang Agricultural Mach is −119M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Xingguang Agricultural Mach (603789) carry?
The net debt of Xingguang Agricultural Mach is 95.2M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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