Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aurelia Metals Ltd stock A$0.29, price A$0.42, that is 29.8% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0770 – A$0.5250 · fair‑value band A$0.1706 – A$0.3626 · the A$0.4150 price screens above the A$0.2915 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Aurelia Metals Limited engages in the exploration and production of mineral properties in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc deposits.
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It owns and operates three underground mines, including Peak Mine, Hera, and Dargues Mine in New South Wales, Australia. The company was formerly known as YTC Resources Limited and changed its name to Aurelia Metals Limited in June 2014.
Aurelia Metals Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI) currently trades at A$0.4150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.2915, 30% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$1.35 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$0.4150 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.0300, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.1706 (bear) to A$0.3626 (bull), the price of A$0.4150 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Aurelia Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$480M in FY2026 versus A$439M in FY2022, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$82.7M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$802M (≈ $553M) Small · P/E ratio 8.3 · P/S ratio 1.15 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0500 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 17.2% · Return on equity 20.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −30%, AMI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.1706Fair Value A$0.2915BullA$0.3626
Price A$0.4150 · Downside -29.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0145 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$0.3500A$0.4600A$0.790079
Growth DCFA$0.3300A$0.4800A$0.750078
Owner EarningsA$0.1800A$0.2700A$0.450075
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$0.3500A$0.4600A$0.790079
Owner EarningsA$0.1800A$0.2700A$0.450075
5Y Revenue ExitA$0.3700A$0.6100A$1.0870
5Y EBITDA ExitA$0.7100A$1.31A$2.4671
5Y P/E ExitA$0.5700A$1.18A$2.0168
10Y Revenue ExitA$0.3500A$0.6600A$0.910066
10Y EBITDA ExitA$0.5700A$1.27A$2.6063
10Y P/E ExitA$0.4800A$1.00A$1.9360
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$0.3300A$2.28A$3.2063
Lynch FVA$0.7800A$1.11A$1.4561
PEG = 1.0A$0.7800A$1.11A$1.4557
EPVA$0.4600A$0.5100A$0.550074
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$0.0200A$0.0300A$0.040068
DDM Multi-StageA$0.0200A$0.0300A$0.030067
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$0.6100A$0.8200A$1.0263
P/S MultipleA$0.3100A$0.4200A$0.520058
P/B MultipleA$0.5800A$0.7700A$0.960055
EV/EBITA$0.8600A$1.11A$1.3766
EV/EBITDAA$0.9200A$1.20A$1.4967
EV/RevenueA$0.3700A$0.5000A$0.620054
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.0100A$0.0100A$0.020052
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$0.3300A$0.4800A$0.750078
Rev-Margin DCFA$0.3700A$0.6800A$1.1770
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$0.2600A$0.3500A$0.580073
ROIC CompounderA$0.5400A$0.7000A$0.890072
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$0.9400A$1.35A$1.7567
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
’15
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Per share before 2023divided by the spin-off factor 1.0483
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.5% vs 4.9%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 27%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.9% a year for the price and +5.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 372 stocks
Beats the industry median on 14/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−29.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)20.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)17.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)28.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)51.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)8.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.21× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.15× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA2.2× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 92
PAST (return on equity)81· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)48· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.2915 versus a price of A$0.4150, about 30% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AMI?
Our model-based fair value for Aurelia Metals Ltd is A$0.2915 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.4150.
What is the quality score of AMI?
Aurelia Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.2915 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1706, optimistic scenario A$0.3626. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aurelia Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.2915, about 30% lower versus a price of A$0.4150 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1706, optimistic scenario A$0.3626. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
Aurelia Metals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$480M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Aurelia Metals Ltd pay a dividend?
Aurelia Metals Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.41% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Aurelia Metals Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.01 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 16, 2026. The payout ratio is 20.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.03 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aurelia Metals Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +14.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMI use?
Our models discount Aurelia Metals Ltd at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.38, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aurelia Metals Ltd that is +14.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aurelia Metals Ltd grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +14.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aurelia Metals Ltd (+14.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.34 %: that much free cash flow Aurelia Metals Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aurelia Metals Ltd it is A$0.2915 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of A$0.4150. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Aurelia Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, AMI trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.4150, fair value A$0.2915, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.4150); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.2915). For Aurelia Metals Ltd the two are A$0.1235 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aurelia Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Aurelia Metals Ltd at about A$802M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is A$0.4150; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.2915 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMI?
Our models span a range for Aurelia Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1706, base A$0.2915, optimistic A$0.3626 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price A$0.4150). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AMI?
Aurelia Metals Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.3 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.2915 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 2.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aurelia Metals Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 20.2%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMI from its 52-week high?
Aurelia Metals Ltd trades at A$0.4150, about 21% below its 52-week high of A$0.5250 and 98% above the low of A$0.2100 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.2915 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aurelia Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aurelia Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price A$0.4150, calculated fair value A$0.2915 (−30%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMI calculated?
We run Aurelia Metals Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.2915 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Aurelia Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.4150. Our model-based fair value is A$0.2915, about 30% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aurelia Metals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.3626). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.1706 to A$0.3626) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI) come from?
Earnings per share at Aurelia Metals Ltd grew +3.0 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.3 %, EBIT margin +4.2 %, tax rate −3.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aurelia Metals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
The market capitalisation of Aurelia Metals Ltd is A$802M (≈ $553M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aurelia Metals Ltd is 1.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
Earnings per share at Aurelia Metals Ltd are A$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
The dividend yield of Aurelia Metals Ltd is 2.4% (payout 20.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
The net margin of Aurelia Metals Ltd is 17.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aurelia Metals Ltd is 20.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aurelia Metals Ltd is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
The operating margin of Aurelia Metals Ltd is 28.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
Revenue at Aurelia Metals Ltd is growing +51.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI)?
Earnings per share at Aurelia Metals Ltd are growing +62.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI) hold?
Aurelia Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$137M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026