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Aurelia Metals Limited (AMI) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$457M

AM Aurelia Metals Limited AMI · AU
PriceA$0.3850
Fair ValueA$0.2426
Upside-37.0%
Quality62/100
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Weak Growth
Solidly profitable · 13.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (11/13)
Moderate moat 63/100
Evidence: High Range A$0.1386 – A$0.3020 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$0.4900 to A$0.2426 (−50.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +37.5% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 37% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.3020). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (A$0.1386 to A$0.3020) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

A$0.5008 A$0.0770 Fair Value A$0.2426 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0770 – A$0.5008 · fair‑value band A$0.1386 – A$0.3020 · the A$0.3850 price screens above the A$0.2426 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Aurelia Metals Limited (AMI) currently trades at A$0.3850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.2426, implying the stock looks roughly 37.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Aurelia Metals Limited generated revenue of A$388M at a net margin of 13.8%. Revenue grew 27.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$102M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$0.1386 (bear case) to A$0.3020 (bull case); at A$0.3850, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 126% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -37%, AMI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF A$0.1700 A$0.2400 A$0.3600 80
Residual Income A$0.1900 A$0.2300 A$0.5000 76
Rev-Margin DCF A$0.2800 A$0.4700 A$0.8800 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$0.1700 A$0.2200 A$0.3700 38
5Y Revenue Exit A$0.2600 A$0.4200 A$0.7700 39
5Y EBITDA Exit A$0.4400 A$0.7900 A$1.49 41
5Y P/E Exit A$0.3500 A$0.7600 A$1.33 38
10Y Revenue Exit A$0.2200 A$0.4600 A$0.6300 36
10Y EBITDA Exit A$0.3500 A$0.8200 A$1.68 37
10Y P/E Exit A$0.2900 A$0.6500 A$1.26 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$0.2000 A$1.37 A$1.92 54
Lynch FV A$0.7100 A$1.01 A$1.31 50
PEG = 1.0 A$0.7100 A$1.01 A$1.31 46
EPV A$0.3000 A$0.3300 A$0.3600 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0500 70
DDM Multi-Stage A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$0.3700 A$0.4900 A$0.6100 63
P/S Multiple A$0.2300 A$0.3000 A$0.3800 58
P/B Multiple A$0.3700 A$0.4900 A$0.6100 55
EV/EBIT A$0.5200 A$0.6700 A$0.8200 53
EV/EBITDA A$0.5600 A$0.7200 A$0.8900 54
EV/Revenue A$0.2800 A$0.3700 A$0.4600 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1100 A$0.1400 A$0.2100 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$0.1700 A$0.2400 A$0.3600 80
Rev-Margin DCF A$0.2800 A$0.4700 A$0.8800 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$0.1900 A$0.2300 A$0.5000 76
ROIC Compounder A$0.3700 A$0.5000 A$0.5800 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$0.8700 A$1.24 A$1.61 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$1.24) versus Dividend Discount (A$0.0300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) A$388M
Revenue growth (YoY) +27.4%
Net margin 13.8%
Return on equity 15.1%
Free cash flow A$13.7M FY2025
P/E ratio 9.0
More key figures
Operating margin 20.6%
EPS (TTM) A$0.0300
EPS growth (YoY) +25.5%
Net cash A$102M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 78
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 16
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 86
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 38
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Aurelia Metals Limited engages in the exploration and production of mineral properties in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc deposits. It owns and operates three underground mines, including Peak Mine, Hera, and Dargues Mine in New South Wales, Australia.

Full company description

Aurelia Metals Limited engages in the exploration and production of mineral properties in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc deposits. It owns and operates three underground mines, including Peak Mine, Hera, and Dargues Mine in New South Wales, Australia. The company was formerly known as YTC Resources Limited and changed its name to Aurelia Metals Limited in June 2014. Aurelia Metals Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Aurelia Metals Limited reported revenue of A$343M in FY2025 versus A$416M in FY2021, a compound −4.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$48.9M in FY2025, compounding +3.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 34/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
A$343M
Latest YoY
+10.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.7%
Avg. growth/yr (15Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+44.4%
Revenue −4.7%/yr
FY21 A$416M
FY22 A$439M
FY23 A$369M
FY24 A$310M
FY25 A$343M
Net income +3.3%/yr
FY21 A$42.9M
FY22 −A$81.7M
FY23 −A$52.2M
FY24 −A$5.7M
FY25 A$48.9M

AMI screens 37% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aurelia Metals Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMI

Peer Group

Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −37% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Return on assets 10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 27% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.89× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.83× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 23.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 1.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 23
PAST 60 · sector 0
HEALTH 99 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 21

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHPN 1,425 MXN 942.42 MXN -34%
Rio Tinto Group RIO A$164.89 A$81.76 -50%
Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB 199.23 MXN 187.72 MXN -6%
Vale S.A VALE $14.19 $9.14 -36%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 58.05 SAR 33.87 SAR -42%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥18.20 ¥16.15 -11%
Fortescue Ltd FMG A$18.47 A$18.62 +1%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥74.71 ¥9.55 -87%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹521.95 ₹576.80 +11%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥39.56 ¥10.59 -73%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Aurelia Metals Limited (AMI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.2426 versus a price of A$0.3850, about −37% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AMI?
Our model-based fair value for Aurelia Metals Limited is A$0.2426 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is A$0.3850.
What is the quality score of AMI?
Aurelia Metals Limited has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Aurelia Metals Limited (AMI)?
Aurelia Metals Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$388M (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AMI?
The net profit margin of Aurelia Metals Limited is about 13.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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