Aurelia Metals Limited (AMI) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$457M
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$0.4900 to A$0.2426 (−50.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +37.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 37% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.3020). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.1386 to A$0.3020) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0770 – A$0.5008 · fair‑value band A$0.1386 – A$0.3020 · the A$0.3850 price screens above the A$0.2426 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Aurelia Metals Limited (AMI) currently trades at A$0.3850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.2426, implying the stock looks roughly 37.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Aurelia Metals Limited generated revenue of A$388M at a net margin of 13.8%. Revenue grew 27.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$102M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.1386 (bear case) to A$0.3020 (bull case); at A$0.3850, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 126% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -37%, AMI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$1.24) versus Dividend Discount (A$0.0300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when AMI reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aurelia Metals Limited engages in the exploration and production of mineral properties in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc deposits. It owns and operates three underground mines, including Peak Mine, Hera, and Dargues Mine in New South Wales, Australia.
Full company description
Aurelia Metals Limited engages in the exploration and production of mineral properties in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc deposits. It owns and operates three underground mines, including Peak Mine, Hera, and Dargues Mine in New South Wales, Australia. The company was formerly known as YTC Resources Limited and changed its name to Aurelia Metals Limited in June 2014. Aurelia Metals Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aurelia Metals Limited reported revenue of A$343M in FY2025 versus A$416M in FY2021, a compound −4.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$48.9M in FY2025, compounding +3.3%/yr from FY2021.
AMI screens 37% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
Compare Aurelia Metals Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Aurelia Metals Limited (AMI) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of AMI?
What is the quality score of AMI?
What is the revenue of Aurelia Metals Limited (AMI)?
What is the net profit margin of AMI?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Aurelia Metals Limited and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.