Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd stock A$0.94, price A$0.40, upside +135.0%, quality 28 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.3800 – A$4.32 · fair‑value band A$0.9400 – A$1.73 · the A$0.4000 price screens below the A$0.9400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Alliance Aviation Services Limited provides contract, charter, and allied aviation services in Australia and internationally.
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The company offers specialized aviation services, including aircraft wet leasing, dry leasing, airport management, aircraft trading, parts sales, engine leasing, and engineering services.
It serves corporate, government, tourism, educational and sporting customers, as well as mining and energy companies. Alliance Aviation Services Limited was founded in 2002 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ) currently trades at A$0.4000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.9400, implying the stock looks roughly 57% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of A$1.14 per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the A$0.4000 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.9400, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.9400 (bear) to A$1.73 (bull), the price of A$0.4000 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd reported revenue of A$693M in FY2026 versus A$365M in FY2022, a compound +17.4%/yr. Reported net income was −A$90.9M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$88.5M (≈ $61.0M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.5500 · Dividend yield 7.5% · Net margin −12.9% · Return on equity −21.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 11.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 135%, AQZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.9400Fair Value A$0.9400BullA$1.73
Price A$0.4000 · Upside +135.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.3% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
16.4% (2021) → 5.8% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Alliance Aviation Services Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airports & Air Services · 48 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+135.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−8.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−12.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)11.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−21.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)7.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.29× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airports & Air Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.9400 versus a price of A$0.4000, about +135% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AQZ?
Our model-based fair value for Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is A$0.9400 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.4000.
What is the quality score of AQZ?
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.9400 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.9400, optimistic scenario A$1.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alliance Aviation Services Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.9400, about +135% upside versus a price of A$0.4000 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.9400, optimistic scenario A$1.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$707M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Alliance Aviation Services Ltd pay a dividend?
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 7.50% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.03 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 2, 2025. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alliance Aviation Services Ltd it is A$0.9400 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.4000. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Alliance Aviation Services Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, AQZ trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.4000, fair value A$0.9400, a gap of about +135% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AQZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.4000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.9400). For Alliance Aviation Services Ltd the two are A$0.5400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alliance Aviation Services Ltd worth?
The market values Alliance Aviation Services Ltd at about A$88.5M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.4000; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.9400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AQZ?
Our models span a range for Alliance Aviation Services Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.9400, base A$0.9400, optimistic A$1.73 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price A$0.4000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −21.6%, debt of 1.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AQZ from its 52-week high?
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd trades at A$0.4000, about 71% below its 52-week high of A$1.39 and 5% above the low of A$0.3800 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.9400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alliance Aviation Services Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Aena S.M.E., S.A, Airports of Thailand Public Company, GMR Airports Limited, Shanghai International Airport Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alliance Aviation Services Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price A$0.4000, calculated fair value A$0.9400 (+135%), Quality Score 28/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AQZ calculated?
We run Alliance Aviation Services Ltd through 4 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.9400 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Alliance Aviation Services Ltd currently trades 57% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.4000. Our model-based fair value is A$0.9400, about +135% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alliance Aviation Services Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (28/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.9400). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.9400 to A$1.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ) come from?
Earnings per share at Alliance Aviation Services Ltd grew +17.0 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.9 %, EBIT margin +3.3 %, tax rate −4.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
The market capitalisation of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is A$88.5M (≈ $61.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is 0.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
Earnings per share at Alliance Aviation Services Ltd are A$−0.5500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
The dividend yield of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is 7.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
The net margin of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is −12.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is −21.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
The operating margin of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
Revenue at Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is growing −21.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
Earnings per share at Alliance Aviation Services Ltd are growing −47.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ) generate?
The free cash flow of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is −A$73.7M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ) carry?
The net debt of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is A$481M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 4, 2026