Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd A$0.61, price A$0.53, upside +16.4%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.5000 – A$4.43 · fair‑value band A$0.4589 – A$0.7640 · the A$0.5250 price screens below the A$0.6110 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Alliance Aviation Services Limited provides contract, charter, and allied aviation services in Australia and internationally. The company offers specialized aviation services, including aircraft wet leasing, dry leasing, airport management, aircraft trading, parts sales, engine leasing, and engineering services.
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Alliance Aviation Services Limited provides contract, charter, and allied aviation services in Australia and internationally. The company offers specialized aviation services, including aircraft wet leasing, dry leasing, airport management, aircraft trading, parts sales, engine leasing, and engineering services. It serves corporate, government, tourism, educational and sporting customers, as well as mining and energy companies. Alliance Aviation Services Limited was founded in 2002 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ) currently trades at A$0.5250, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.6110, implying the stock looks roughly 14.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of A$5.94 per share, and 14 of the 14 models we run sit above the A$0.5250 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$1.78, and 0 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.4589 (bear) to A$0.7640 (bull), the price of A$0.5250 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd reported revenue of A$761M in FY2025 versus A$307M in FY2021, a compound +25.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$57.3M in FY2025, compounding +14.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$84.7M (≈ $59.4M) · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.4800 · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity −19.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0% · Operating margin 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 79% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 16%, AQZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.4589Fair Value A$0.6110Bull A$0.7640
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+21.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16% vs 17%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 14%
Compare Alliance Aviation Services Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airports & Air Services · 56 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+16% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−10% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.99× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airports & Air Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.6110 versus a price of A$0.5250, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AQZ?
Our model-based fair value for Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is A$0.6110 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.5250.
What is the quality score of AQZ?
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.6110 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.4589, optimistic scenario A$0.7640. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alliance Aviation Services Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.6110, about +16% upside versus a price of A$0.5250 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.4589, optimistic scenario A$0.7640. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$801M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Alliance Aviation Services Ltd pay a dividend?
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alliance Aviation Services Ltd it is A$0.6110 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.5250. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alliance Aviation Services Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AQZ trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.5250, fair value A$0.6110, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AQZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.5250); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.6110). For Alliance Aviation Services Ltd the two are A$0.0860 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alliance Aviation Services Ltd worth?
The market values Alliance Aviation Services Ltd at about A$84.7M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.5250; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.6110 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AQZ?
Our models span a range for Alliance Aviation Services Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.4589, base A$0.6110, optimistic A$0.7640 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.5250). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −19.4%, debt of 0.99 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AQZ from its 52-week high?
Alliance Aviation Services Ltd trades at A$0.5250, about 79% below its 52-week high of A$2.53 and 5% above the low of A$0.5000 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.6110 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alliance Aviation Services Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Aena S.M.E., S.A, Airports of Thailand Public Company, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A., GMR Airports Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alliance Aviation Services Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.5250, calculated fair value A$0.6110 (+16%), Quality Score 43/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AQZ calculated?
We run Alliance Aviation Services Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.6110, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Alliance Aviation Services Ltd currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.5250. Our model-based fair value is A$0.6110, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alliance Aviation Services Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ) come from?
Earnings per share at Alliance Aviation Services Ltd grew +17.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.7 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
The market capitalisation of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is A$84.7M (≈ $59.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is 0.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
Earnings per share at Alliance Aviation Services Ltd are A$−0.4800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
The dividend yield of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is 5.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
The net margin of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is 7.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is −19.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
The operating margin of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
Revenue at Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is growing +8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ)?
Earnings per share at Alliance Aviation Services Ltd are growing −17.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ) generate?
The free cash flow of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is −A$70.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (AQZ) carry?
The net debt of Alliance Aviation Services Ltd is A$417M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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