Alliance Aviation Services Limited (AQZ) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · AU · Market cap A$87.0M
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from A$0.6145 to A$0.6129 (−0.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +66.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.7663). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.5000 – A$4.49 · fair‑value band A$0.4603 – A$0.7663 · the A$0.8900 price screens above the A$0.6129 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Alliance Aviation Services Limited (AQZ) currently trades at A$0.8900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.6129, implying the stock looks roughly 31.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alliance Aviation Services Limited generated revenue of A$801M at a net margin of -9.7%. Revenue grew 8.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -19.4%. Net debt stands at A$417M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.4603 (bear case) to A$0.7663 (bull case); at A$0.8900, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -29% fair-value upside, at -31%, AQZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$8.62) versus Economic Profit (A$1.78). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alliance Aviation Services Limited provides contract, charter, and allied aviation services in Australia and internationally. The company offers specialized aviation services, including aircraft wet leasing, dry leasing, airport management, aircraft trading, parts sales, engine leasing, and engineering services.
Full company description
Alliance Aviation Services Limited provides contract, charter, and allied aviation services in Australia and internationally. The company offers specialized aviation services, including aircraft wet leasing, dry leasing, airport management, aircraft trading, parts sales, engine leasing, and engineering services. It serves corporate, government, tourism, educational and sporting customers, as well as mining and energy companies. Alliance Aviation Services Limited was founded in 2002 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alliance Aviation Services Limited reported revenue of A$761M in FY2025 versus A$307M in FY2021, a compound +25.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$57.3M in FY2025, compounding +14.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +14.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AQZ screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Aena S.M.E., S.A →
Peer Group
Airports & Air Services · 55 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airports & Air Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airports & Air Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aena S.M.E., S.A AENA | €26.24 | €28.41 | +8% |
| Airports of Thailand Public Company TATD | 2.44 SGD | 1.25 SGD | -49% |
| Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A. PAC | $220.91 | $246.06 | +11% |
| GMR Airports Limited GMRINFRA | ₹112.80 | ₹22.29 | -80% |
| Flughafen Zürich AG FHZN | CHF 237.20 | CHF 121.30 | -49% |
| Shanghai International Airport Co 600009 | ¥24.08 | ¥17.09 | -29% |
| Auckland International Airport Limited AIA | A$7.11 | A$2.80 | -61% |
| Fraport AG FRA | €69.35 | €49.83 | -28% |
| Københavns Lufthavne A/S KBHL | kr 5,660 | kr 1,821 | -68% |
| SATS Ltd S58 | 4.82 SGD | 4.03 SGD | -16% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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