Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alliance Resource Partners LP stock $30.52, price $24.39, upside +25.1%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.54 – $27.64 · fair‑value band $21.36 – $39.67 · the $24.39 price screens below the $30.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., a diversified natural resource company, engages in the production and marketing of coal to utilities and industrial users in the United States.
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The company operates through four segments: Illinois Basin Coal Operations, Appalachia Coal Operations, Oil & Gas Royalties, and Coal Royalties. It produces bituminous coal from its underground mines sold to electric power generation and the steel production customers.
The company operates seven underground mining complexes in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
In addition, it owns and leases oil and gas mineral interests and equity interests; and leases its coal mineral reserves and resources to its mining complexes; and leases land and operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mt. Vernon, Indiana.
Further, the company offers various mining technology products and services, including data network, communication and tracking systems, mining proximity detection systems, industrial collision avoidance systems, and data and analytics software. It also exports its products.
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Stock analysis
Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) currently trades at $24.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.52, implying the stock looks roughly 20% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $47.88 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the $24.39 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.57, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $21.36 (bear) to $39.67 (bull), the price of $24.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Alliance Resource Partners LP reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was $311M in FY2025, compounding +15.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.2B Mid · P/E ratio 10.2 · P/S ratio 1.43 · EPS (TTM) $2.40 · Dividend yield 9.8% · Net margin 14.1% · Return on equity 16.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 25%, ARLP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$21.36Fair Value $30.52Bull$39.67
Price $24.39 · Upside +25.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $80,160, on Aug 18, 2026.
BuyRonna R. McDanielDirector2× since Jul 31, 2026: 3,070 shares, avg. $26.11$80,160Aug 18, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.4% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
≈ +21.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +11.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.4% vs −6.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 18%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 1.40 per share, median 3.84 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.6% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business draws predictable cash flows from long-term contracted coal volumes and a royalty portfolio expansion, yet remains limited by the commoditized nature and secular demand pressure of thermal coal.
Main risk: Secular decline in thermal coal demand threatens to reduce the durability of cash flows from the core mining operations and the newly added royalty assets.
Coal operations deliver predictable cash flows with nearly all 2026 volumes already committed and priced and most of 2027 contracted as well. The partnership has meanwhile expanded its oil and gas royalty portfolio through a sizable recent acquisition that adds high-margin revenue with limited further capital needs. Does the visibility from long-term coal contracts ultimately prove more durable than the growth potential in royalties or the reverse?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 82 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+25.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)14.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)23.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)9.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.71× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.43× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)8.1× · Cheaper than median
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Is Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $30.52 versus a price of $24.39, about +25% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARLP?
Our model-based fair value for Alliance Resource Partners LP is $30.52 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.39.
What is the quality score of ARLP?
Alliance Resource Partners LP has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $30.52 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.36, optimistic scenario $39.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alliance Resource Partners LP stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $30.52, about +25% upside versus a price of $24.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $21.36, optimistic scenario $39.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
Alliance Resource Partners LP reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Alliance Resource Partners LP pay a dividend?
Alliance Resource Partners LP currently shows a dividend yield of 9.84% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Alliance Resource Partners LP pays a dividend of $2.40 per share a year, a dividend yield of 9.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Nov 6, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1999. The payout ratio is 100% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.26 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alliance Resource Partners LP would have to grow free cash flow by -7.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.6 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARLP use?
Our models discount Alliance Resource Partners LP at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alliance Resource Partners LP that is -7.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alliance Resource Partners LP grew +10.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -7.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alliance Resource Partners LP (-7.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.36 %: that much free cash flow Alliance Resource Partners LP produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alliance Resource Partners LP it is $30.52 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $24.39. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Alliance Resource Partners LP stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, ARLP trades below its calculated fair value: price $24.39, fair value $30.52, a gap of about +25% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARLP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($30.52). For Alliance Resource Partners LP the two are $6.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alliance Resource Partners LP worth?
The market values Alliance Resource Partners LP at about $3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $24.39; our models calculate a fair value of $30.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARLP?
Our models span a range for Alliance Resource Partners LP: cautious scenario $21.36, base $30.52, optimistic $39.67 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $24.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARLP?
Alliance Resource Partners LP trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $30.52 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2018, FY2019, FY2020 ex one-offs: 6.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 4.9.
What is the PEG ratio of ARLP?
The PEG ratio of Alliance Resource Partners LP is 0.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alliance Resource Partners LP (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 16.5%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARLP from its 52-week high?
Alliance Resource Partners LP trades at $24.39, about 12% below its 52-week high of $27.64 and 14% above the low of $21.48 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $30.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alliance Resource Partners LP?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alliance Resource Partners LP stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $24.39, calculated fair value $30.52 (+25%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARLP calculated?
We run Alliance Resource Partners LP through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $30.52 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Alliance Resource Partners LP currently trades 20% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $24.39. Our model-based fair value is $30.52, about +25% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alliance Resource Partners LP right now?
Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($21.36 to $39.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) come from?
Earnings per share at Alliance Resource Partners LP grew −4.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.8 %, EBIT margin +0.6 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alliance Resource Partners LP
How large is the market capitalisation of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
The market capitalisation of Alliance Resource Partners LP is $3.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alliance Resource Partners LP is 1.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
Earnings per share at Alliance Resource Partners LP are $2.40 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
The dividend yield of Alliance Resource Partners LP is 9.8% (payout 100%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
The net margin of Alliance Resource Partners LP is 14.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alliance Resource Partners LP is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alliance Resource Partners LP is 17.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
The operating margin of Alliance Resource Partners LP is 23.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
Revenue at Alliance Resource Partners LP is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP)?
Earnings per share at Alliance Resource Partners LP are growing +47.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) carry?
The net debt of Alliance Resource Partners LP is $409M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026