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Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc stock $18.11, price $27.39, that is 33.9% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Healthcare US

AB Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc

ARQT · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 34% below what the stock costs today.

Generates free cash flow over the last twelve months
Upbeat coverage
Revenue last quarter +45% vs. a year ago.
Quality 46/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +367.3 %/yr in USD)
Thin margins · 5.9% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
Insiders sold $4.2M (6M)
Fair value $18.11 · Overvalued
Narrow moat 37/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$34.05 $1.84 Fair Value $18.11 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.84 – $34.05 · fair‑value band $13.58 – $22.63 · the $27.39 price screens above the $18.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing treatments for dermatological diseases. The company's lead product is ZORYVE, a topical roflumilast cream for the treatment of plaque psoriasis and atopic dermatitis.

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It also develops ZORYVE foam seborrheic dermatitis, and scalp and body psoriasis treatment; ARQ-234, a fusion protein that is a potent and highly selective checkpoint agonist of the CD200 receptor.

The company was formerly known as Arcutis, Inc. and changed its name to Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. in October 2019. Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California.

Stock analysis

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT) currently trades at $27.39, while our estimate is $18.11, 34% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $13.58 (bear) to $22.63 (bull), the price of $27.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc reported revenue of $376M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$16.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $3.7B Mid · P/E ratio 130.4 · P/S ratio 7.32 · EPS (TTM) $0.2100 · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity 14.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −45.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 6.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −34%, ARQT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $13.58 Fair Value $18.11 Bull $22.63
Price $27.39 · Downside -33.9%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 34
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 90
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 7
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 66
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 10
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 59
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 51
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 6
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $4.2M and none bought.

  • SaleMasaru MatsudaEVP, Chief Legal Officer9× since Nov 19, 2025: 121,271 shares, avg. $28.38$3.4MNov 4, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleTodd WatanabeOfficer, Director6× since Nov 21, 2025: 119,106 shares, avg. $27.64$3.3MNov 2, 2026
  • SalePatrick BurnettEVP, Chief Medical Officer11× since Dec 15, 2025: 54,944 shares, avg. $26.86$1.5MNov 2, 2026
  • SaleHoward G. WelgusDirector11× since Dec 1, 2025: 80,793 shares, avg. $26.13$2.1MOct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleTerrie CurranDirector2× since Aug 20, 2026: 39,272 shares, avg. $25.06$984,061Aug 27, 2026
  • SaleSue-Jean LinDirector2× since Nov 24, 2025: 30,218 shares, avg. $29.73$898,456Jun 15, 2026
  • SaleLatha VairavanSVP Chief Financial Officer4× since Feb 2, 2026: 5,949 shares, avg. $24.60$146,320May 11, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleKeith R LeonardDirector39,272 shares at $25.39$997,116Mar 2, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleLarry Todd EdwardsOfficer2× since Feb 2, 2026: 5,739 shares, avg. $25.30$145,168Mar 2, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleHalley E GilbertDirector16,532 shares at $27.55$455,457Nov 20, 2025

Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.

Plus 19 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+91.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+367.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8,183.0% (2022) → −3.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ARQT screens overvalued: fair value 34% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

Compare Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 849 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Above median
Fair Value upside −33.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 14.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets −3.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 5.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 6.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 45.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.57× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 130.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B 19.64× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 7.32× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)60 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)72 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 20

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $916.06 $1,275 +39% vs ARQT
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,468,000 KRW 1,661,000 KRW +13% vs ARQT
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $547.89 $601.80 +10% vs ARQT
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,581 kr 3,880 +8% vs ARQT
argenx SE ARGX $971.55 $908.40 −7% vs ARQT
CSL Limited CSL A$201.68 A$181.40 −10% vs ARQT
Moderna, Inc MRNA $250.83 $158.70 −37% vs ARQT
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$252.20 HK$152.80 −39% vs ARQT
Celltrion, Inc 068270 203,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −63% vs ARQT
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $69.45 $19.01 −73% vs ARQT

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Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARQT

Frequently asked questions

Is Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $18.11 versus a price of $27.39, about 34% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARQT?
Our estimate for Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc is $18.11 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $27.39.
What is the quality score of ARQT?
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $18.11 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $13.58, optimistic scenario $22.63. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $18.11, about 34% lower versus a price of $27.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.58, optimistic scenario $22.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT)?
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $509M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc it is $18.11 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $27.39.
Is Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, ARQT trades above its calculated fair value: price $27.39, fair value $18.11, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARQT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($27.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.11). For Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc the two are $9.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc worth?
The market values Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc at about $3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $27.39; our models calculate a fair value of $18.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARQT?
Our models span a range for Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc: cautious scenario $13.58, base $18.11, optimistic $22.63 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $27.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARQT?
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 130.4 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.11 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 19.6, P/S 7.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 14.9%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARQT from its 52-week high?
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc trades at $27.39, about 20% below its 52-week high of $34.05 and 40% above the low of $19.50 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Moderna, Inc, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $27.39, calculated fair value $18.11 (−34%), Quality Score 46/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $27.39. Our estimate is $18.11, about 34% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT)?
The market capitalisation of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc is $3.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc is 7.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT)?
Earnings per share at Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc are $0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 130.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT)?
The net margin of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc is 5.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc is −45.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT)?
The operating margin of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT)?
Revenue at Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc is growing +45.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +367%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT)?
Earnings per share at Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc are growing +3.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT) generate?
The free cash flow of Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc is −$6.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT) hold?
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc holds more cash than debt, $36.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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