Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc (ARQT) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $3.4B
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc
ARQT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $6.82 to $14.43 (+111.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −11.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($7.84 to $20.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.84 – $34.13 · fair‑value band $7.84 – $20.23 · the $25.29 price screens above the $14.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc (ARQT) currently trades at $25.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.43, implying the stock looks roughly 42.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc generated revenue of $416M at a net margin of -0.6%. Revenue grew 60.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $36.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.84 (bear case) to $20.23 (bull case); at $25.29, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 99% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -43%, ARQT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($14.85) versus Asset-Based ($1.01). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing treatments for dermatological diseases. The company's lead product is ZORYVE, a topical roflumilast cream for the treatment of plaque psoriasis and atopic dermatitis.
Full company description
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing treatments for dermatological diseases. The company's lead product is ZORYVE, a topical roflumilast cream for the treatment of plaque psoriasis and atopic dermatitis. It also develops ZORYVE foam seborrheic dermatitis, and scalp and body psoriasis treatment; ARQ-234, a fusion protein that is a potent and highly selective checkpoint agonist of the CD200 receptor. The company was formerly known as Arcutis, Inc. and changed its name to Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. in October 2019. Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc reported revenue of $376M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$16.1M in FY2025.
ARQT screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) Stock Trades At A Discount To Sales But Fair Value Looks Tight
- Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) Heads Into Earnings With Its ZORYVE Story Still Shaping Valuation
- Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 603 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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