Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aurora Innovation Inc stock $0.65, price $4.36, that is 85.1% below the price, quality 31 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.14 – $17.11 · fair‑value band $0.4300 – $0.8200 · the $4.36 price screens above the $0.6500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Aurora Innovation, Inc. engages in the self-driving technology business in the United States. It focuses on developing Aurora Driver, a platform that brings a suite of self-driving hardware, software, and data services together to adapt and interoperate various vehicle types and applications.
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The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR) currently trades at $4.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6500, 85.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $0.4300 (bear) to $0.8200 (bull), the price of $4.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Aurora Innovation Inc reported revenue of $3.0M in FY2025 versus $82.0M in FY2021, a compound −56.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$816M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $10.2B Large · EPS (TTM) $−0.4600 · Return on equity −45.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −45.0% · Operating margin −13,300% · Revenue (TTM) $5.0M · Revenue growth (YoY) +100% · Free cash flow −$612M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −85%, AUR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$0.4300Fair Value $0.6500Bull$0.8200
Price $4.36 · Downside -85.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−64.7%
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.9%
’19
’21
’22
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−579.1% (2019) → −30,033.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 655 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−85.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−34.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)100.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/B4.77× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 34
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 39
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6500 versus a price of $4.36, about 85% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AUR?
Our model-based fair value for Aurora Innovation Inc is $0.6500 (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.36.
What is the quality score of AUR?
Aurora Innovation Inc has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6500 (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4300, optimistic scenario $0.8200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aurora Innovation Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6500, about 85% lower versus a price of $4.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4300, optimistic scenario $0.8200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)?
Aurora Innovation Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.0M (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aurora Innovation Inc it is $0.6500 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of $4.36. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aurora Innovation Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, AUR trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.36, fair value $0.6500, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AUR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6500). For Aurora Innovation Inc the two are $3.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aurora Innovation Inc worth?
The market values Aurora Innovation Inc at about $10.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is $4.36; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AUR?
Our models span a range for Aurora Innovation Inc: cautious scenario $0.4300, base $0.6500, optimistic $0.8200 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price $4.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aurora Innovation Inc (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity −45.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AUR from its 52-week high?
Aurora Innovation Inc trades at $4.36, about 48% below its 52-week high of $8.40 and 16% above the low of $3.77 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aurora Innovation Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aurora Innovation Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price $4.36, calculated fair value $0.6500 (−85%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AUR calculated?
We run Aurora Innovation Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Aurora Innovation Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $4.36. Our model-based fair value is $0.6500, about 85% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aurora Innovation Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.8200). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.4300 to $0.8200) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Aurora Innovation Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)?
The market capitalisation of Aurora Innovation Inc is $10.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)?
Earnings per share at Aurora Innovation Inc are $−0.4600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aurora Innovation Inc is −45.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aurora Innovation Inc is −45.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)?
The operating margin of Aurora Innovation Inc is −13,300% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR)?
Revenue at Aurora Innovation Inc is growing +100% versus a year earlier (3y avg −64.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR) generate?
The free cash flow of Aurora Innovation Inc is −$612M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR) hold?
Aurora Innovation Inc holds more cash than debt, $65.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 29, 2026