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Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Australian Vanadium Ltd stock A$0.20, price A$0.18, upside +8.6%, quality 26 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU000000AVL6

AV Australian Vanadium Ltd logo Thin data Nov 9, 2026

Australian Vanadium Ltd

AVL · AU
Fairly valued, weak quality

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Fair value A$0.1955 · Fairly valued
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +78.6 %/yr in AUD)
Mixed vs. peers (3/7)
Quality 26/100
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 3/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$2.63 A$0.1350 Fair Value A$0.1955 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.1350 – A$2.63 · fair‑value band A$0.1445 – A$0.2890 · the A$0.1800 price screens below the A$0.1955 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Australian Vanadium Limited, together with its subsidiary, engages in the mineral exploration activities in Australia. The company operates through Upstream " Australian Vanadium Project; Midstream " Electrolyte Plant; and Downstream - Energy Storage segments.

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It explores for vanadium/titanium, uranium, nickel, copper, PGE, and other economic resources.

The company holds 100% interest in the Australian Vanadium project located in the Murchison Province; the Coates project that covers an area of approximately 11.66 square kilometers located in the north-east of Perth in Western Australia; and the Nowthanna Hill Uranium-Vanadium project located in the south of Meekatharra in Western Australia.

It also develops and sells vanadium flow batteries. The company was formerly known as Yellow Rock Resources Limited and changed its name to Australian Vanadium Limited in December 2015. Australian Vanadium Limited was incorporated in 2005 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL) currently trades at A$0.1800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1955, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.9%).

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.1445 (bear) to A$0.2890 (bull), the price of A$0.1800 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Australian Vanadium Ltd reported revenue of A$624K in FY2025 versus A$34.3K in FY2021, a compound +106.5%/yr. Reported net income was −A$9.5M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$67.6M (≈ $46.6M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0300 · Return on equity −7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.9% (5-year average) · Revenue (TTM) A$613K · Revenue growth (YoY) +283% · Free cash flow −A$8.1M · Net cash A$3.3M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 3 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at 9%, AVL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.1445 Fair Value A$0.1955 Bull A$0.2890
Price A$0.1800 · Upside +8.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1700 A$0.2300 A$0.3400 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1700 A$0.2300 A$0.3400 51

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 26/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 8
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 60
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 33
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 12
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+78.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.0% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8,262.2% (2020) → −1,931.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 372 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +8.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −6.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 282.9% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.52× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)45 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 92
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 34

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹261.75 ₹334.17 +28% vs AVL
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 58.25 SAR 64.96 SAR +12% vs AVL
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹568.10 ₹624.91 +10% vs AVL
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥27.56 ¥30.32 +10% vs AVL
Boliden AB BOL kr 503.40 kr 464.45 −8% vs AVL
BHP Group BHP A$59.20 A$47.85 −19% vs AVL
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥33.04 ¥25.57 −23% vs AVL
Korea Zinc Company 010130 960,000 KRW 649,125 KRW −32% vs AVL
CMOC Group 603993 ¥13.29 ¥6.82 −49% vs AVL
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥38.65 ¥4.44 −89% vs AVL

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Australian Vanadium Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Australian Vanadium Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVL

Frequently asked questions

Is Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1955 versus a price of A$0.1800, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AVL?
Our model-based fair value for Australian Vanadium Ltd is A$0.1955 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1800.
What is the quality score of AVL?
Australian Vanadium Ltd has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1955 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1445, optimistic scenario A$0.2890. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Australian Vanadium Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1955, about +9% upside versus a price of A$0.1800 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$0.1445, optimistic scenario A$0.2890. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL)?
Australian Vanadium Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$613K (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Australian Vanadium Ltd it is A$0.1955 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of A$0.1800. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Australian Vanadium Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, AVL trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.1800, fair value A$0.1955, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1955). For Australian Vanadium Ltd the two are A$0.0155 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Australian Vanadium Ltd worth?
The market values Australian Vanadium Ltd at about A$67.6M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1800; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1955 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVL?
Our models span a range for Australian Vanadium Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1445, base A$0.1955, optimistic A$0.2890 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price A$0.1800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Australian Vanadium Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −7.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVL from its 52-week high?
Australian Vanadium Ltd trades at A$0.1800, about 44% below its 52-week high of A$0.3200 and 33% above the low of A$0.1350 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1955 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Australian Vanadium Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Australian Vanadium Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price A$0.1800, calculated fair value A$0.1955 (+9%), Quality Score 26/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVL calculated?
We run Australian Vanadium Ltd through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.1955 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Australian Vanadium Ltd currently trades 8% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.1800. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1955, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Australian Vanadium Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$0.1445 to A$0.2890) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Australian Vanadium Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL)?
The market capitalisation of Australian Vanadium Ltd is A$67.6M (≈ $46.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL)?
Earnings per share at Australian Vanadium Ltd are A$−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Australian Vanadium Ltd is −7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Australian Vanadium Ltd is −7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL)?
Revenue at Australian Vanadium Ltd is growing +283% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL) generate?
The free cash flow of Australian Vanadium Ltd is −A$8.1M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Australian Vanadium Ltd (AVL) hold?
Australian Vanadium Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$3.3M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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