Australian Vanadium Limited (AVL) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$56.3M
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +13.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 10% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
- Our model range runs from A$0.1275 (bear) to A$0.1785 (bull), base A$0.1530. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 13/100 (below-average quality) with low evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1350 – A$2.63 · fair‑value band A$0.1275 – A$0.1785 · the A$0.1700 price screens above the A$0.1530 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Australian Vanadium Limited (AVL) currently trades at A$0.1700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1530, implying the stock looks roughly 10.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 13/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$613K. Revenue grew 282.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -7.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$9.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.1275 (bear case) to A$0.1785 (bull case); at A$0.1700, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -10%, AVL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$0.2300) versus Dividend Discount (A$0.1600). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 22 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Australian Vanadium Limited, together with its subsidiary, engages in the mineral exploration activities in Australia. The company operates through Upstream " Australian Vanadium Project; Midstream " Electrolyte Plant; and Downstream - Energy Storage segments. It explores for vanadium/titanium, uranium, nickel, copper, PGE, and other economic resources.
Full company description
Australian Vanadium Limited, together with its subsidiary, engages in the mineral exploration activities in Australia. The company operates through Upstream " Australian Vanadium Project; Midstream " Electrolyte Plant; and Downstream - Energy Storage segments. It explores for vanadium/titanium, uranium, nickel, copper, PGE, and other economic resources. The company holds 100% interest in the Australian Vanadium project located in the Murchison Province; the Coates project that covers an area of approximately 11.66 square kilometers located in the north-east of Perth in Western Australia; and the Nowthanna Hill Uranium-Vanadium project located in the south of Meekatharra in Western Australia. It also develops and sells vanadium flow batteries. The company was formerly known as Yellow Rock Resources Limited and changed its name to Australian Vanadium Limited in December 2015. Australian Vanadium Limited was incorporated in 2005 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Australian Vanadium Limited reported revenue of A$624K in FY2025 versus A$34.3K in FY2021, a compound +106.5%/yr. Reported net income was −A$11.9M in FY2025.
AVL screens 10% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 20/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.89 | $8.95 | -40% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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