Ball Corporation (BALL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ball Corporation stock $47.82, price $66.91, that is 28.5% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $41.21 – $91.76 · fair‑value band $22.65 – $69.54 · the $66.91 price screens above the $47.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Ball Corporation supplies aluminum packaging products for the beverage, personal care, and household products industries in the United States, Brazil, and internationally.
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The company manufactures and sells aluminum beverage containers to fillers of carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and other beverages. It manufactures and sells extruded aluminum aerosol containers, recloseable aluminum bottles, aluminum cups, and aluminum slugs.
The company was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Westminster, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Ball Corporation (BALL) currently trades at $66.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $47.82, 29% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $51.31 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $66.91 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $11.89, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $22.65 (bear) to $69.54 (bull), the price of $66.91 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ball Corporation reported revenue of $13.2B in FY2025 versus $13.9B in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was $912M in FY2025, compounding +1.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $17.9B Large · P/E ratio 19.1 · P/S ratio 1.25 · EPS (TTM) $3.51 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 17.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −29%, BALL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$22.65Fair Value $47.82Bull$69.54
Price $66.91 · Downside -28.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.30 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $914,183 and none bought.
SaleMandy GlewSVP and President, EMEA5,626 shares at $63.80$358,939Aug 25, 2026
SaleDeron GoodwinVP, Global Head of Treasury8,809 shares at $63.03$555,245Aug 11, 2026
BuyFauze VillatoroSVP & President South America1,551 shares at $64.51$100,055Mar 4, 2026
SaleKathleen PitreSVP & President NCA10,660 shares at $66.63$710,276Mar 2, 2026
SaleNate C CareyVice President & Controller10,718 shares at $66.45$712,211Feb 5, 2026
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+11.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.5% vs 12.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.8% a year for the price and +3.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale advantages in aluminum packaging form the core strength while limited differentiation and elevated leverage remain the main weaknesses in a cyclical sector.
Main risk: Competition from PET plastic bottles in the U.S. and Europe as well as glass bottles in Brazil could reduce demand for aluminum cans and pressure prices or margins.
Bull case: By accelerating the shift to aluminum through lightweight specialty formats and new beverage categories Ball could gain share from substitute materials and strengthen customer ties.
Bear case: If substitution by PET and glass accelerates or key customers reduce volumes Ball could face sustained lower demand and margin pressure in its core packaging business.
Ball has completed the sale of its aerospace business to BAE Systems. This leaves the company focused solely on aluminum packaging for beverages and consumer goods amid ongoing capacity expansions and volume growth. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Does the pure-play packaging model improve focus and returns or increase vulnerability to aluminum prices and demand swings?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 261 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−28.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)6.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.29× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)19.1× · Pricier than median
P/B3.30× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.25× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow22.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA11.4× · Pricier than median
PEG1.12× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)99· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)69· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)36· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)24· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ball Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BALL
Frequently asked questions
Is Ball Corporation (BALL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $47.82 versus a price of $66.91, about 29% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BALL?
Our model-based fair value for Ball Corporation is $47.82 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $66.91.
What is the quality score of BALL?
Ball Corporation has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ball Corporation (BALL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $47.82 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.65, optimistic scenario $69.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ball Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $47.82, about 29% lower versus a price of $66.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.65, optimistic scenario $69.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ball Corporation (BALL)?
Ball Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Ball Corporation pay a dividend?
Ball Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.20% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ball Corporation (BALL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ball Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +15.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.3 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BALL use?
Our models discount Ball Corporation at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.95, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ball Corporation that is +15.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ball Corporation (BALL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ball Corporation grew +2.3 % a year. The price currently implies +15.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ball Corporation (BALL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ball Corporation (+15.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ball Corporation (BALL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.41 %: that much free cash flow Ball Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ball Corporation (BALL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ball Corporation it is $47.82 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $66.91. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ball Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, BALL trades above its calculated fair value: price $66.91, fair value $47.82, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BALL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($66.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($47.82). For Ball Corporation the two are $19.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ball Corporation worth?
The market values Ball Corporation at about $17.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $66.91; our models calculate a fair value of $47.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BALL?
Our models span a range for Ball Corporation: cautious scenario $22.65, base $47.82, optimistic $69.54 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $66.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BALL?
Ball Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $47.82 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 36.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 3.3, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 11.4.
What is the PEG ratio of BALL?
The PEG ratio of Ball Corporation is 1.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ball Corporation (BALL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ball Corporation (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 17.2%, debt of 1.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BALL from its 52-week high?
Ball Corporation trades at $66.91, about 2% below its 52-week high of $68.07 and 46% above the low of $45.92 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $47.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ball Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ball Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $66.91, calculated fair value $47.82 (−29%), Quality Score 56/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BALL calculated?
We run Ball Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $47.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Ball Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ball Corporation (BALL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $66.91. Our model-based fair value is $47.82, about 29% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ball Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($22.65 to $69.54). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Ball Corporation (BALL) come from?
Earnings per share at Ball Corporation grew +20.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.6 %, EBIT margin +0.6 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +15.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ball Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Ball Corporation (BALL)?
The market capitalisation of Ball Corporation is $17.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ball Corporation (BALL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ball Corporation is 1.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ball Corporation (BALL)?
Earnings per share at Ball Corporation are $3.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ball Corporation (BALL)?
The dividend yield of Ball Corporation is 1.2% (payout 22.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ball Corporation (BALL)?
The net margin of Ball Corporation is 6.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ball Corporation (BALL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ball Corporation is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ball Corporation (BALL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ball Corporation is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ball Corporation (BALL)?
The operating margin of Ball Corporation is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ball Corporation (BALL)?
Revenue at Ball Corporation is growing +19.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ball Corporation (BALL)?
Earnings per share at Ball Corporation are growing +9.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ball Corporation (BALL) carry?
The net debt of Ball Corporation is $5.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026