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Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Business First Bancshares Inc stock $21.27, price $32.20, that is 34.0% below the price, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

BF Business First Bancshares Inc logo Broad data Nov 7, 2026

Business First Bancshares Inc

BFST · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 34% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +24.8 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 27.3% net margin (TTM)
1.9% dividend yield · Low payout
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +17% vs. a year ago.
Quality 42/100
Wide moat 66/100 · thin data
Insiders bought $47,415 (6M) · sold $5.6M
Fair value $21.27 · Overvalued (−34.0%)
Trails peers (4/14)
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$32.98 $12.56 Fair Value $21.27 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $12.56 – $32.98 · fair‑value band $19.54 – $24.96 · the $32.20 price screens above the $21.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Business First Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for b1BANK that provides various banking products and services in Louisiana and Texas.

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It offers various deposit products and services, including checking and savings, time, and money market accounts; and certificates of deposits, remote deposit capture, and direct deposit services.

The company also provides commercial and industrial loans, such as working capital, term, equipment financing, asset acquisition, expansion and development, borrowing base, and other loan products, as well as commercial lines of credit, accounts receivable factoring, agricultural financing, and letters of credit; construction and development loans; commercial real estate loans; residential real estate loans comprising first and second lien 1-4 family mortgage loans, and home equity lines of credit; and consumer loans, including secured and unsecured installment, and term loans.

In addition, it offers wealth management products, including mutual funds, annuities, individual retirement accounts, and other financial products, as well as other fiduciary and private banking products and services.

Further, the company provides a range of other financial services comprising debit and credit cards, treasury and cash management, merchant, automated clearing house, lock-box, receivables factoring, correspondent banking, and other treasury services, as well as employee and payroll benefits solutions; and drive-through banking facilities, automated teller machines, night depository, personalized checks, electronic funds transfer, domestic and foreign wire transfer, traveler's checks, vault, loan and deposit sweep accounts, interest-rate swaps, small business administration products, online and mobile banking, e-statements, and bank-by-mail services.

Business First Bancshares, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Stock analysis

Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST) currently trades at $32.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.27, 34% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $30.65 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $32.20 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $9.67, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $19.54 (bear) to $24.96 (bull), the price of $32.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Business First Bancshares Inc reported revenue of $512M in FY2025 versus $203M in FY2021, a compound +26.0%/yr. Reported net income was $87.9M in FY2025, compounding +13.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.1B Small · P/E ratio 11.5 · P/S ratio 3.04 · EPS (TTM) $2.81 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 27.3% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −34%, BFST screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $19.54 Fair Value $21.27 Bull $24.96
Price $32.20 · Downside -34.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.89 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $23.04 $25.02 $29.37 76
Gordon GGM $5.51 $10.17 $14.29 67
DDM Multi-Stage $5.51 $9.17 $10.84 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $5.51 $10.17 $14.29 67
DDM Multi-Stage $5.51 $9.17 $10.84 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $26.48 $35.31 $44.14 63
P/B Multiple $19.49 $25.98 $32.48 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $11.77 $15.77 $23.53 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $23.04 $25.02 $29.37 76

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 30
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 70
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 17
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 56
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 82
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 59
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 80
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $47,415, on Jul 28, 2026. Over the same period, 6 people sold shares worth $5.6M.

  • SaleGeorge W. Cummings IIIDirector14× since Feb 25, 2026: 193,403 shares, avg. $29.92$5.8MOct 29, 2026
  • SaleDonald Chad CarterEVP, Correspondent Banking2× since Jan 29, 2026: 5,653 shares, avg. $28.72$162,351Aug 6, 2026
  • SaleWilliam G. HallDirector11,389 shares at $31.97$364,106Aug 5, 2026
  • SaleSaundra StrongEVP & General Counsel1,000 shares at $31.98$31,980Aug 5, 2026
  • SaleKeith MansfieldEVP&COO of b1Bank4,200 shares at $32.08$134,736Jul 30, 2026
  • SaleJoseph Vernon JohnsonDirector12,000 shares at $31.65$379,800Jul 29, 2026
  • BuyRick D. DayDirector2× since Jan 27, 2026: 3,000 shares, avg. $29.58$88,740Jul 28, 2026
  • BuyRolfe H. McCollister Jr.Director120 shares at $29.56$3,547Feb 10, 2026
  • SaleMark P. FolseDirector10,000 shares at $29.63$296,335Feb 10, 2026
  • SaleGreg RobertsonEVP and CFO1,400 shares at $26.41$36,974Dec 1, 2025

Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +28.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.2% vs 15.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 22%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

BFST screens overvalued: fair value 34% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −34.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 10.1% · Below median
Return on assets 1.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 27.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 35.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 17.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.30× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 11.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.18× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 3.04× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 11.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.7× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)87 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)40 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)37 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs BFST
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs BFST
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs BFST
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs BFST
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs BFST
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs BFST
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs BFST
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs BFST
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs BFST
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs BFST

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Business First Bancshares Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BFST

Frequently asked questions

Is Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.27 versus a price of $32.20, about 34% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BFST?
Our model-based fair value for Business First Bancshares Inc is $21.27 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $32.20.
What is the quality score of BFST?
Business First Bancshares Inc has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.27 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.54, optimistic scenario $24.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Business First Bancshares Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.27, about 34% lower versus a price of $32.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $19.54, optimistic scenario $24.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
Business First Bancshares Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $347M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Business First Bancshares Inc pay a dividend?
Business First Bancshares Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.86% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Business First Bancshares Inc pays a dividend of $0.6 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.9%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 13, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2018. The payout ratio is 21.4% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Business First Bancshares Inc it is $21.27 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $32.20. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Business First Bancshares Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, BFST trades above its calculated fair value: price $32.20, fair value $21.27, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BFST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($32.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.27). For Business First Bancshares Inc the two are $10.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Business First Bancshares Inc worth?
The market values Business First Bancshares Inc at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $32.20; our models calculate a fair value of $21.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BFST?
Our models span a range for Business First Bancshares Inc: cautious scenario $19.54, base $21.27, optimistic $24.96 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $32.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BFST?
Business First Bancshares Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.27 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 10.8. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Business First Bancshares Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BFST from its 52-week high?
Business First Bancshares Inc trades at $32.20, about 2% below its 52-week high of $32.98 and 35% above the low of $23.88 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Business First Bancshares Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Business First Bancshares Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $32.20, calculated fair value $21.27 (−34%), Quality Score 42/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BFST calculated?
We run Business First Bancshares Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $21.27 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Business First Bancshares Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $32.20. Our model-based fair value is $21.27, about 34% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Business First Bancshares Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($24.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST) come from?
Earnings per share at Business First Bancshares Inc grew +16.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.2 %, EBIT margin +3.6 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Business First Bancshares Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
The market capitalisation of Business First Bancshares Inc is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Business First Bancshares Inc is 3.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
Earnings per share at Business First Bancshares Inc are $2.81 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
The dividend yield of Business First Bancshares Inc is 1.9% (payout 21.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
The net margin of Business First Bancshares Inc is 27.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Business First Bancshares Inc is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Business First Bancshares Inc is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
The operating margin of Business First Bancshares Inc is 35.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
Revenue at Business First Bancshares Inc is growing +17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST)?
Earnings per share at Business First Bancshares Inc are growing −2.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST) generate?
The free cash flow of Business First Bancshares Inc is $92.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST) carry?
The net debt of Business First Bancshares Inc is $140M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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